Roland Garros · SF · Clay · 5 Jun 1981
Victor Pecci v Bjorn Borg
92–109 in points · Bjorn Borg won
Why it went the way it did
Bjorn Borg won 8.2 more points than Victor Pecci relative to what the serve alone predicted. Victor Pecci's biggest leaks: slice shot selection −11.4, serve 1st execution −3.4, return shot selection −2.4.
Each shot moves its hitter's chance of winning the point. Those moves are split into direction choice, shot selection and execution, and summed here. Read both columns together: one player's gain is the other's loss.
| Shot | Victor Pecci | Bjorn Borg | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dir | Sel | Exec | Total | Dir | Sel | Exec | Total | |
| Serve 1st | ±0.0 | +1.9 | −3.4 | −1.5 | −0.3 | −1.0 | +1.5 | +0.1 |
| Serve 2nd | ±0.0 | −0.3 | −1.6 | −1.9 | −0.1 | −0.1 | +0.4 | +0.2 |
| Return | +0.5 | −2.4 | +4.0 | +2.1 | −0.2 | +0.3 | +2.2 | +2.3 |
| Forehand | −1.7 | +3.2 | +6.3 | +7.9 | −0.6 | +3.5 | +1.0 | +3.9 |
| Backhand | −0.1 | +0.4 | −0.2 | +0.2 | +0.6 | +1.1 | +3.4 | +5.2 |
| Slice | +0.5 | −11.4 | +1.4 | −9.4 | +0.1 | −1.8 | +0.5 | −1.1 |
| Net | −0.8 | +0.3 | +8.3 | +7.9 | −0.3 | +0.5 | +2.7 | +2.8 |
| Touch | +0.1 | −0.3 | −1.2 | −1.4 | −0.2 | −1.7 | +0.2 | −1.6 |
| Other | ±0.0 | −0.1 | −0.2 | −0.3 | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | ±0.0 |
| All shots | −1.4 | −8.5 | +13.5 | +3.6 | −0.9 | +0.9 | +11.8 | +11.8 |
Set by set
| Set | Victor Pecci | Bjorn Borg | Net, Victor | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | +0.5 | +2.3 | −1.8 | |
| 2 | +1.6 | +3.8 | −2.2 | |
| 3 | +1.6 | +5.8 | −4.2 |
Adaptation
First-serve direction mix set by set, with the share of points each direction won. The scores measure whether the server moved toward the directions that had been winning earlier in this match, set to set and every two to three service games, in points per 100 first serves. Read them as a habit, not a gain: across the tour, a direction's edge in early sets barely predicts the later ones. Whether the returner responded can't be told apart from noise within one match.
Victor Pecci serving
| Set | Wide | Body | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 50% 69% | 12% 33% | 38% 50% |
| 2 | 52% 47% | 7% 100% | 41% 50% |
| 3 | 59% 46% | – | 41% 59% |
Set to set +0.29 per 100 first serves in sets 2+
Within sets −0.45 per 100 first serves, every two to three service games
Bjorn Borg serving
| Set | Wide | Body | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 61% 65% | 15% 60% | 24% 63% |
| 2 | 43% 81% | 27% 40% | 30% 45% |
| 3 | 41% 64% | 21% 43% | 38% 69% |
Set to set −1.59 per 100 first serves in sets 2+
Within sets −2.67 per 100 first serves, every two to three service games
Counterfactual: the best direction every time
If each shot had gone in the direction that is usually worth most for that stroke and position, this is how many more points each player would expect to win. It's an upper bound: the best direction isn't always on, and the chart can't see the ball's pace or position.
Victor Pecci
23.6 points left on the table across 639 shots 3.70 per 100 shots
- Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your backhand side hit BH slice through the middle ×22; BH slice crosscourt rates higher · 1.62 pts
- Long rally, 9+: drive to your backhand side hit BH slice through the middle ×23; BH slice crosscourt rates higher · 1.61 pts
- Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your forehand side, you at net hit FH volley through the middle ×3; FH volley crosscourt rates higher · 0.85 pts
- Return +1: drive to your forehand side hit FH through the middle ×14; FH crosscourt rates higher · 0.82 pts
Bjorn Borg
15.7 points left on the table across 629 shots 2.49 per 100 shots
- Long rally, 9+: slice to your backhand side hit BH through the middle ×10; BH down the line rates higher · 0.66 pts
- Return of a 2nd serve, wide, deuce court hit FH crosscourt ×11; FH inside-in rates higher · 0.59 pts
- Return of a 2nd serve, wide, deuce court hit FH through the middle ×7; FH inside-in rates higher · 0.56 pts
- Rally, shots 5–8: slice to your backhand side hit BH through the middle ×9; BH down the line rates higher · 0.50 pts