US Open · SF · Hard · 12 Sep 1981
Jimmy Connors v Bjorn Borg
89–109 in points · Bjorn Borg won
Why it went the way it did
Bjorn Borg won 10.0 more points than Jimmy Connors relative to what the serve alone predicted. Jimmy Connors's biggest leaks: return execution −2.5, slice shot selection −2.1, return shot selection −1.8.
Each shot moves its hitter's chance of winning the point. Those moves are split into direction choice, shot selection and execution, and summed here. Read both columns together: one player's gain is the other's loss.
| Shot | Jimmy Connors | Bjorn Borg | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dir | Sel | Exec | Total | Dir | Sel | Exec | Total | |
| Serve 1st | −0.3 | −1.5 | +1.4 | −0.5 | +0.5 | −1.4 | +0.7 | −0.2 |
| Serve 2nd | ±0.0 | −0.5 | +0.4 | −0.1 | ±0.0 | −1.1 | +2.0 | +0.9 |
| Return | ±0.0 | −1.8 | −2.5 | −4.3 | +0.8 | +1.1 | +6.9 | +8.9 |
| Forehand | +0.8 | +3.8 | +1.8 | +6.4 | −0.4 | +2.5 | +1.4 | +3.5 |
| Backhand | +0.2 | +0.4 | +1.9 | +2.5 | +0.4 | +0.6 | +3.6 | +4.6 |
| Slice | +0.3 | −2.1 | +0.5 | −1.3 | ±0.0 | −2.2 | +0.9 | −1.4 |
| Net | +0.1 | +0.6 | −1.6 | −0.9 | −0.1 | +0.4 | −4.5 | −4.2 |
| Touch | +0.1 | −0.8 | −0.1 | −0.8 | ±0.0 | −1.0 | −0.1 | −1.1 |
| All shots | +1.1 | −1.8 | +1.8 | +1.0 | +1.2 | −1.1 | +10.8 | +11.0 |
Set by set
| Set | Jimmy Connors | Bjorn Borg | Net, Jimmy | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | −0.7 | +4.9 | −5.6 | |
| 2 | −0.4 | +1.2 | −1.6 | |
| 3 | +2.1 | +4.9 | −2.7 |
Adaptation
First-serve direction mix set by set, with the share of points each direction won. The scores measure whether the server moved toward the directions that had been winning earlier in this match, set to set and every two to three service games, in points per 100 first serves. Read them as a habit, not a gain: across the tour, a direction's edge in early sets barely predicts the later ones. Whether the returner responded can't be told apart from noise within one match.
Jimmy Connors serving
| Set | Wide | Body | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 43% 58% | 14% 25% | 43% 58% |
| 2 | 36% 50% | 10% 100% | 54% 52% |
| 3 | 39% 67% | 10% 67% | 52% 50% |
Set to set +0.29 per 100 first serves in sets 2+
Within sets +0.58 per 100 first serves, every two to three service games
Bjorn Borg serving
| Set | Wide | Body | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 59% 75% | – | 41% 73% |
| 2 | 29% 45% | 3% 100% | 68% 65% |
| 3 | 55% 72% | – | 45% 60% |
Set to set −0.23 per 100 first serves in sets 2+
Within sets −0.03 per 100 first serves, every two to three service games
Counterfactual: the best direction every time
If each shot had gone in the direction that is usually worth most for that stroke and position, this is how many more points each player would expect to win. It's an upper bound: the best direction isn't always on, and the chart can't see the ball's pace or position.
Jimmy Connors
13.0 points left on the table across 524 shots 2.49 per 100 shots
- Serve +1: mid-depth return to your middle hit FH through the middle ×6; FH crosscourt rates higher · 0.52 pts
- Long rally, 9+: drive to your forehand side, you at net hit FH volley down the line ×4; FH volley crosscourt rates higher · 0.51 pts
- Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your forehand side hit FH through the middle ×9; FH crosscourt rates higher · 0.46 pts
- Return of a 1st serve, wide, ad court hit FH through the middle ×4; FH inside-out rates higher · 0.42 pts
Bjorn Borg
12.2 points left on the table across 527 shots 2.31 per 100 shots
- Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your backhand side hit BH through the middle ×20; BH crosscourt rates higher · 0.77 pts
- Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your forehand side hit FH through the middle ×11; FH crosscourt rates higher · 0.56 pts
- Long rally, 9+: drive to your forehand side hit FH through the middle ×9; FH crosscourt rates higher · 0.49 pts
- Serve +1: mid-depth return to your middle hit FH through the middle ×5; FH crosscourt rates higher · 0.43 pts