Roland Garros · F · Clay · 5 Jun 1983
Mats Wilander v Yannick Noah
102–113 in points · Yannick Noah won
Why it went the way it did
Yannick Noah won 6.4 more points than Mats Wilander relative to what the serve alone predicted. Mats Wilander's biggest leaks: forehand direction choices −7.1, backhand execution −4.3, backhand direction choices −3.3.
Each shot moves its hitter's chance of winning the point. Those moves are split into direction choice, shot selection and execution, and summed here. Read both columns together: one player's gain is the other's loss.
| Shot | Mats Wilander | Yannick Noah | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dir | Sel | Exec | Total | Dir | Sel | Exec | Total | |
| Serve 1st | −1.0 | −1.1 | +0.8 | −1.3 | −1.0 | +0.8 | −0.9 | −1.1 |
| Serve 2nd | ±0.0 | −0.2 | +0.3 | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | +1.5 | +1.5 |
| Return | −0.4 | +0.9 | +0.9 | +1.3 | −0.6 | −1.7 | +2.4 | ±0.0 |
| Forehand | −7.1 | +2.5 | −2.3 | −6.9 | −3.4 | +4.0 | −0.7 | −0.1 |
| Backhand | −3.3 | ±0.0 | −4.3 | −7.6 | −1.8 | +0.4 | +0.9 | −0.4 |
| Slice | −0.1 | −1.8 | +0.9 | −1.0 | −0.8 | −12.2 | +2.5 | −10.6 |
| Net | −0.3 | +0.8 | −2.2 | −1.8 | −2.0 | +0.1 | +4.2 | +2.3 |
| Touch | −0.3 | −1.4 | +2.5 | +0.8 | +0.1 | −1.3 | −0.4 | −1.6 |
| All shots | −12.5 | −0.4 | −3.6 | −16.5 | −9.4 | −10.0 | +9.4 | −10.1 |
Set by set
| Set | Mats Wilander | Yannick Noah | Net, Mats | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | −8.2 | −3.2 | −5.0 | |
| 2 | −2.3 | −2.3 | ±0.0 | |
| 3 | −6.0 | −4.5 | −1.4 |
Adaptation
First-serve direction mix set by set, with the share of points each direction won. The scores measure whether the server moved toward the directions that had been winning earlier in this match, set to set and every two to three service games, in points per 100 first serves. Read them as a habit, not a gain: across the tour, a direction's edge in early sets barely predicts the later ones. Whether the returner responded can't be told apart from noise within one match.
Mats Wilander serving
| Set | Wide | Body | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 57% 50% | 39% 45% | 4% 100% |
| 2 | 59% 60% | 38% 62% | 3% 100% |
| 3 | 42% 62% | 32% 38% | 26% 69% |
Set to set +1.05 per 100 first serves in sets 2+
Within sets +0.37 per 100 first serves, every two to three service games
Yannick Noah serving
| Set | Wide | Body | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 57% 69% | 17% 75% | 26% 67% |
| 2 | 38% 67% | 28% 64% | 33% 54% |
| 3 | 51% 57% | 20% 38% | 29% 75% |
Set to set −0.48 per 100 first serves in sets 2+
Within sets −0.09 per 100 first serves, every two to three service games
Counterfactual: the best direction every time
If each shot had gone in the direction that is usually worth most for that stroke and position, this is how many more points each player would expect to win. It's an upper bound: the best direction isn't always on, and the chart can't see the ball's pace or position.
Mats Wilander
29.6 points left on the table across 656 shots 4.51 per 100 shots
- Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your middle hit FH through the middle ×33; FH crosscourt rates higher · 1.88 pts
- Serve +1: mid-depth return to your middle hit FH through the middle ×13; FH crosscourt rates higher · 1.12 pts
- Return of a 2nd serve, wide, deuce court hit FH through the middle ×10; FH inside-in rates higher · 0.80 pts
- Long rally, 9+: drive to your middle hit FH through the middle ×15; FH crosscourt rates higher · 0.80 pts
Yannick Noah
28.1 points left on the table across 667 shots 4.22 per 100 shots
- Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your forehand side, you at net hit FH volley through the middle ×3; FH volley crosscourt rates higher · 0.85 pts
- Long rally, 9+: drive to your forehand side, you at net hit FH volley through the middle ×3; FH volley crosscourt rates higher · 0.77 pts
- Long rally, 9+: drive to your backhand side hit BH slice through the middle ×11; BH slice crosscourt rates higher · 0.77 pts
- Long rally, 9+: drive to your middle hit FH through the middle ×14; FH crosscourt rates higher · 0.74 pts