Wimbledon · QF · Grass · 1 Jul 1987
Pat Cash v Mats Wilander
103–71 in points · Pat Cash won
Why it went the way it did
Pat Cash won 18.5 more points than Mats Wilander relative to what the serve alone predicted. Mats Wilander's biggest leaks: backhand execution −4.8, forehand execution −1.5, touch shot selection −1.4.
Each shot moves its hitter's chance of winning the point. Those moves are split into direction choice, shot selection and execution, and summed here. Read both columns together: one player's gain is the other's loss.
| Shot | Pat Cash | Mats Wilander | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dir | Sel | Exec | Total | Dir | Sel | Exec | Total | |
| Serve 1st | −0.7 | +1.3 | +2.2 | +2.8 | +0.1 | +1.4 | −0.7 | +0.8 |
| Serve 2nd | ±0.0 | +1.0 | −0.4 | +0.7 | −0.1 | +0.3 | +0.8 | +1.0 |
| Return | +0.5 | +2.3 | +8.5 | +11.3 | +0.1 | +0.9 | +4.8 | +5.8 |
| Forehand | +0.1 | +1.3 | −2.9 | −1.4 | +0.1 | +1.5 | −1.5 | +0.1 |
| Backhand | +0.4 | +0.8 | −0.4 | +0.8 | +0.2 | +0.6 | −4.8 | −4.0 |
| Slice | ±0.0 | +0.1 | +0.1 | +0.3 | +0.1 | +0.2 | −0.1 | +0.2 |
| Net | −0.9 | ±0.0 | +8.0 | +7.1 | ±0.0 | +0.6 | −0.1 | +0.5 |
| Touch | +0.2 | −1.0 | +0.3 | −0.5 | −0.3 | −1.4 | −0.2 | −1.9 |
| All shots | −0.4 | +5.9 | +15.4 | +20.9 | +0.2 | +3.9 | −1.7 | +2.4 |
Set by set
| Set | Pat Cash | Mats Wilander | Net, Pat | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | +6.4 | −0.3 | +6.6 | |
| 2 | +7.5 | +1.2 | +6.2 | |
| 3 | +7.0 | +1.4 | +5.6 |
Adaptation
First-serve direction mix set by set, with the share of points each direction won. The scores measure whether the server moved toward the directions that had been winning earlier in this match, set to set and every two to three service games, in points per 100 first serves. Read them as a habit, not a gain: across the tour, a direction's edge in early sets barely predicts the later ones. Whether the returner responded can't be told apart from noise within one match.
Pat Cash serving
| Set | Wide | Body | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 33% 100% | 17% 75% | 50% 75% |
| 2 | 45% 73% | 27% 89% | 27% 67% |
| 3 | 23% 80% | 32% 71% | 45% 80% |
Set to set −0.43 per 100 first serves in sets 2+
Within sets −0.62 per 100 first serves, every two to three service games
Mats Wilander serving
| Set | Wide | Body | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 46% 54% | 11% 33% | 43% 67% |
| 2 | 44% 44% | 12% 60% | 44% 72% |
| 3 | 31% 63% | 8% 50% | 62% 50% |
Set to set −1.35 per 100 first serves in sets 2+
Within sets −0.10 per 100 first serves, every two to three service games
Counterfactual: the best direction every time
If each shot had gone in the direction that is usually worth most for that stroke and position, this is how many more points each player would expect to win. It's an upper bound: the best direction isn't always on, and the chart can't see the ball's pace or position.
Pat Cash
12.6 points left on the table across 240 shots 5.26 per 100 shots
- Serve +1: drive to your middle, you at net hit FH volley through the middle ×4; FH volley crosscourt rates higher · 0.88 pts
- Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your backhand side, you at net hit BH volley through the middle ×3; BH volley crosscourt rates higher · 0.78 pts
- Serve +1: drive to your forehand side, you at net hit FH volley through the middle ×3; FH volley crosscourt rates higher · 0.74 pts
- Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your forehand side, you at net hit FH volley down the line ×5; FH volley crosscourt rates higher · 0.69 pts
Mats Wilander
11.9 points left on the table across 223 shots 5.33 per 100 shots
- Serve +1: drive to your middle, you at net hit BH volley through the middle ×3; BH volley crosscourt rates higher · 0.59 pts
- Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your forehand side, you at net hit FH volley through the middle ×2; FH volley crosscourt rates higher · 0.56 pts
- Return +1: volley to your forehand side, opponent at net hit FH lob through the middle ×4; FH lob crosscourt rates higher · 0.48 pts
- Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your backhand side, you at net hit BH volley down the line ×4; BH volley crosscourt rates higher · 0.48 pts