Tour Finals · F · Hard · 6 Dec 1987
Mats Wilander v Ivan Lendl
62–88 in points · Ivan Lendl won
Why it went the way it did
Ivan Lendl won 15.7 more points than Mats Wilander relative to what the serve alone predicted. Mats Wilander's biggest leaks: slice shot selection −3.6, forehand direction choices −2.0, net execution −2.0.
Each shot moves its hitter's chance of winning the point. Those moves are split into direction choice, shot selection and execution, and summed here. Read both columns together: one player's gain is the other's loss.
| Shot | Mats Wilander | Ivan Lendl | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dir | Sel | Exec | Total | Dir | Sel | Exec | Total | |
| Serve 1st | −0.4 | −0.1 | −0.1 | −0.5 | +0.3 | −1.0 | −0.2 | −0.9 |
| Serve 2nd | ±0.0 | −0.3 | +0.1 | −0.2 | ±0.0 | −0.8 | +1.2 | +0.3 |
| Return | +0.1 | −0.6 | −0.1 | −0.6 | +0.1 | −1.1 | +1.7 | +0.7 |
| Forehand | −2.0 | +0.8 | +5.0 | +3.8 | +0.3 | +3.5 | +8.1 | +12.0 |
| Backhand | +0.8 | −0.6 | +8.8 | +9.0 | +1.2 | ±0.0 | +9.5 | +10.7 |
| Slice | +0.1 | −3.6 | +0.7 | −2.9 | +0.7 | −6.8 | +3.5 | −2.6 |
| Net | −0.8 | −0.4 | −2.0 | −3.2 | +0.2 | +0.1 | +1.0 | +1.2 |
| Touch | ±0.0 | −0.6 | +0.7 | +0.2 | −0.2 | −0.7 | +0.7 | −0.2 |
| All shots | −2.2 | −5.5 | +13.2 | +5.5 | +2.6 | −6.8 | +25.4 | +21.2 |
Set by set
| Set | Mats Wilander | Ivan Lendl | Net, Mats | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | +0.4 | +7.8 | −7.4 | |
| 2 | +0.9 | +5.9 | −5.0 | |
| 3 | +4.2 | +7.6 | −3.4 |
Adaptation
First-serve direction mix set by set, with the share of points each direction won. The scores measure whether the server moved toward the directions that had been winning earlier in this match, set to set and every two to three service games, in points per 100 first serves. Read them as a habit, not a gain: across the tour, a direction's edge in early sets barely predicts the later ones. Whether the returner responded can't be told apart from noise within one match.
Mats Wilander serving
| Set | Wide | Body | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 37% 27% | 20% 67% | 43% 46% |
| 2 | 46% 45% | 13% 67% | 42% 50% |
| 3 | 39% 42% | 16% 80% | 45% 50% |
Set to set −0.71 per 100 first serves in sets 2+
Within sets −0.50 per 100 first serves, every two to three service games
Ivan Lendl serving
| Set | Wide | Body | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 50% 70% | 5% 100% | 45% 67% |
| 2 | 58% 57% | – | 42% 90% |
| 3 | 76% 69% | – | 24% 40% |
Set to set −2.26 per 100 first serves in sets 2+
Within sets −0.93 per 100 first serves, every two to three service games
Counterfactual: the best direction every time
If each shot had gone in the direction that is usually worth most for that stroke and position, this is how many more points each player would expect to win. It's an upper bound: the best direction isn't always on, and the chart can't see the ball's pace or position.
Mats Wilander
14.4 points left on the table across 548 shots 2.62 per 100 shots
- Serve +1: short return to your middle, you at net hit BH volley through the middle ×3; BH volley crosscourt rates higher · 0.72 pts
- Long rally, 9+: drive to your forehand side hit FH through the middle ×13; FH crosscourt rates higher · 0.71 pts
- Long rally, 9+: drive to your backhand side hit BH through the middle ×11; BH crosscourt rates higher · 0.46 pts
- Rally, shots 5–8: lob to your middle, you at net hit Smash through the middle ×2; Smash crosscourt rates higher · 0.38 pts
Ivan Lendl
12.4 points left on the table across 584 shots 2.13 per 100 shots
- Long rally, 9+: drive to your backhand side hit BH slice through the middle ×16; BH slice crosscourt rates higher · 1.12 pts
- Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your backhand side hit BH slice through the middle ×7; BH slice crosscourt rates higher · 0.51 pts
- Return of a 1st serve, T, deuce court, server rushing the net hit BH slice through the middle ×7; BH slice crosscourt rates higher · 0.37 pts
- Return +1: volley to your forehand side, opponent at net hit FH lob through the middle ×3; FH lob crosscourt rates higher · 0.36 pts