Australian Open · SF · Hard · 23 Jan 1988
Stefan Edberg v Mats Wilander
117–159 in points · Mats Wilander won
Why it went the way it did
Mats Wilander won 10.0 more points than Stefan Edberg relative to what the serve alone predicted. Stefan Edberg's biggest leaks: net execution −8.3, slice shot selection −2.1, serve 1st execution −1.8.
Each shot moves its hitter's chance of winning the point. Those moves are split into direction choice, shot selection and execution, and summed here. Read both columns together: one player's gain is the other's loss.
| Shot | Stefan Edberg | Mats Wilander | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dir | Sel | Exec | Total | Dir | Sel | Exec | Total | |
| Serve 1st | +0.1 | +2.5 | −1.8 | +0.8 | −0.2 | −0.1 | +0.1 | −0.1 |
| Serve 2nd | −0.2 | +1.8 | +0.3 | +2.0 | −0.1 | −0.3 | +1.7 | +1.3 |
| Return | +0.7 | ±0.0 | +8.8 | +9.6 | −0.4 | +1.4 | +3.3 | +4.3 |
| Forehand | +0.6 | +2.5 | +2.0 | +5.0 | ±0.0 | +3.2 | +3.6 | +6.8 |
| Backhand | +0.4 | +1.3 | −0.7 | +1.0 | +0.4 | +1.0 | +0.1 | +1.5 |
| Slice | +0.1 | −2.1 | −1.4 | −3.4 | +0.1 | −2.2 | +1.2 | −0.9 |
| Net | +1.2 | −0.6 | −8.3 | −7.7 | +0.3 | ±0.0 | +3.4 | +3.7 |
| Touch | −0.1 | −1.2 | −1.3 | −2.6 | −0.2 | −2.2 | +0.1 | −2.2 |
| Other | ±0.0 | −0.1 | −0.1 | −0.2 | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | ±0.0 |
| All shots | +2.8 | +4.1 | −2.5 | +4.5 | ±0.0 | +0.8 | +13.5 | +14.4 |
Set by set
| Set | Stefan Edberg | Mats Wilander | Net, Stefan | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | −1.3 | +1.7 | −3.0 | |
| 2 | +4.1 | +2.3 | +1.8 | |
| 3 | −1.1 | +4.3 | −5.4 | |
| 4 | +3.2 | +1.7 | +1.6 | |
| 5 | −0.5 | +4.5 | −5.0 |
Adaptation
First-serve direction mix set by set, with the share of points each direction won. The scores measure whether the server moved toward the directions that had been winning earlier in this match, set to set and every two to three service games, in points per 100 first serves. Read them as a habit, not a gain: across the tour, a direction's edge in early sets barely predicts the later ones. Whether the returner responded can't be told apart from noise within one match.
Stefan Edberg serving
| Set | Wide | Body | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 60% 0% | – | 40% 50% |
| 2 | 44% 47% | 8% 67% | 49% 68% |
| 3 | 36% 67% | 8% 0% | 56% 57% |
| 4 | 53% 58% | 6% 100% | 42% 53% |
| 5 | 62% 50% | 8% 0% | 31% 25% |
Set to set −0.01 per 100 first serves in sets 2+
Within sets +0.15 per 100 first serves, every two to three service games
Mats Wilander serving
| Set | Wide | Body | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 80% 75% | – | 20% 100% |
| 2 | 49% 59% | 9% 100% | 43% 40% |
| 3 | 50% 77% | 19% 80% | 31% 75% |
| 4 | 45% 46% | 14% 25% | 41% 67% |
| 5 | 50% 75% | 8% 100% | 42% 60% |
Set to set +0.14 per 100 first serves in sets 2+
Within sets −0.66 per 100 first serves, every two to three service games
Counterfactual: the best direction every time
If each shot had gone in the direction that is usually worth most for that stroke and position, this is how many more points each player would expect to win. It's an upper bound: the best direction isn't always on, and the chart can't see the ball's pace or position.
Stefan Edberg
16.7 points left on the table across 457 shots 3.66 per 100 shots
- Serve +1: short return to your middle, you at net hit FH volley through the middle ×4; FH volley crosscourt rates higher · 0.99 pts
- Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your backhand side, you at net hit BH volley down the line ×5; BH volley crosscourt rates higher · 0.60 pts
- Serve +1: mid-depth return to your forehand side, you at net hit FH volley through the middle ×2; FH volley crosscourt rates higher · 0.59 pts
- Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your forehand side, you at net hit FH volley down the line ×4; FH volley crosscourt rates higher · 0.55 pts
Mats Wilander
15.1 points left on the table across 432 shots 3.50 per 100 shots
- Return of a 1st serve, wide, ad court, server rushing the net hit BH through the middle ×9; BH crosscourt rates higher · 0.70 pts
- Serve +1: mid-depth return to your forehand side hit FH through the middle ×5; FH crosscourt rates higher · 0.46 pts
- Return of a 1st serve, T, deuce court, server rushing the net hit BH through the middle ×9; BH crosscourt rates higher · 0.44 pts
- Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your forehand side, you at net hit FH volley down the line ×3; FH volley crosscourt rates higher · 0.42 pts