Roland Garros · SF · Clay · 4 Jun 1988
Mats Wilander v Andre Agassi
165–145 in points · Mats Wilander won
Why it went the way it did
Mats Wilander won 8.8 more points than Andre Agassi relative to what the serve alone predicted. Andre Agassi's biggest leaks: net execution −6.9, forehand execution −3.3, slice shot selection −2.3.
Each shot moves its hitter's chance of winning the point. Those moves are split into direction choice, shot selection and execution, and summed here. Read both columns together: one player's gain is the other's loss.
| Shot | Mats Wilander | Andre Agassi | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dir | Sel | Exec | Total | Dir | Sel | Exec | Total | |
| Serve 1st | ±0.0 | −0.9 | +4.2 | +3.3 | +0.2 | −0.3 | +0.1 | ±0.0 |
| Serve 2nd | −0.1 | −0.1 | +0.5 | +0.3 | +0.2 | −0.3 | +1.0 | +0.9 |
| Return | +0.4 | +1.6 | +8.1 | +10.2 | +0.7 | +2.0 | +7.0 | +9.7 |
| Forehand | +0.1 | +3.3 | +6.8 | +10.2 | +0.1 | +9.0 | −3.3 | +5.8 |
| Backhand | +1.8 | +2.3 | +6.1 | +10.1 | +2.0 | +5.2 | −1.0 | +6.2 |
| Slice | +2.5 | −18.0 | +3.8 | −11.7 | ±0.0 | −2.3 | −1.1 | −3.3 |
| Net | ±0.0 | +0.7 | +1.7 | +2.4 | +1.3 | +0.7 | −6.9 | −4.9 |
| Touch | +0.1 | −4.0 | +0.9 | −2.9 | +0.1 | −1.6 | +0.2 | −1.3 |
| All shots | +4.8 | −15.2 | +32.2 | +21.9 | +4.7 | +12.4 | −4.0 | +13.1 |
Set by set
| Set | Mats Wilander | Andre Agassi | Net, Mats | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | +3.2 | +7.0 | −3.8 | |
| 2 | +2.3 | −2.9 | +5.2 | |
| 3 | +9.2 | +8.8 | +0.4 | |
| 4 | +3.3 | +5.0 | −1.6 | |
| 5 | +3.9 | −4.7 | +8.6 |
Adaptation
First-serve direction mix set by set, with the share of points each direction won. The scores measure whether the server moved toward the directions that had been winning earlier in this match, set to set and every two to three service games, in points per 100 first serves. Read them as a habit, not a gain: across the tour, a direction's edge in early sets barely predicts the later ones. Whether the returner responded can't be told apart from noise within one match.
Mats Wilander serving
| Set | Wide | Body | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 16% 80% | 19% 50% | 66% 52% |
| 2 | 32% 71% | 32% 57% | 36% 63% |
| 3 | 50% 50% | 4% 100% | 46% 55% |
| 4 | 38% 73% | 5% 100% | 58% 35% |
| 5 | 53% 70% | – | 47% 78% |
Set to set +1.41 per 100 first serves in sets 2+
Within sets +0.99 per 100 first serves, every two to three service games
Andre Agassi serving
| Set | Wide | Body | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 52% 73% | – | 48% 64% |
| 2 | 50% 42% | 8% 50% | 42% 40% |
| 3 | 57% 50% | 10% 50% | 33% 57% |
| 4 | 44% 59% | 5% 100% | 51% 50% |
| 5 | 40% 17% | 13% 50% | 47% 14% |
Set to set +0.32 per 100 first serves in sets 2+
Within sets −0.13 per 100 first serves, every two to three service games
Counterfactual: the best direction every time
If each shot had gone in the direction that is usually worth most for that stroke and position, this is how many more points each player would expect to win. It's an upper bound: the best direction isn't always on, and the chart can't see the ball's pace or position.
Mats Wilander
19.8 points left on the table across 950 shots 2.08 per 100 shots
- Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your forehand side hit FH through the middle ×15; FH crosscourt rates higher · 0.76 pts
- Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your backhand side hit BH slice through the middle ×10; BH slice crosscourt rates higher · 0.73 pts
- Long rally, 9+: drive to your forehand side hit FH through the middle ×13; FH crosscourt rates higher · 0.71 pts
- Serve +1: mid-depth return to your middle hit FH through the middle ×6; FH crosscourt rates higher · 0.52 pts
Andre Agassi
24.5 points left on the table across 985 shots 2.49 per 100 shots
- Return of a 1st serve, T, ad court hit FH down the line ×18; FH inside-in rates higher · 3.30 pts
- Return of a 1st serve, T, ad court hit FH through the middle ×10; FH inside-in rates higher · 1.63 pts
- Return of a 1st serve, wide, deuce court hit FH down the line ×7; FH crosscourt rates higher · 0.59 pts
- Long rally, 9+: drive to your backhand side, you at net hit BH volley through the middle ×2; BH volley crosscourt rates higher · 0.49 pts