Wimbledon · SF · Grass · 2 Jul 1988
Stefan Edberg v Miloslav Mecir
153–155 in points · Stefan Edberg won
Why it went the way it did
Miloslav Mecir won 5.7 more points than Stefan Edberg relative to what the serve alone predicted. Stefan Edberg's biggest leaks: serve 1st execution −3.2, serve 1st direction choices −1.8, serve 2nd execution −1.7.
Each shot moves its hitter's chance of winning the point. Those moves are split into direction choice, shot selection and execution, and summed here. Read both columns together: one player's gain is the other's loss.
| Shot | Stefan Edberg | Miloslav Mecir | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dir | Sel | Exec | Total | Dir | Sel | Exec | Total | |
| Serve 1st | −1.8 | +3.1 | −3.2 | −1.9 | +0.2 | +0.9 | −3.0 | −2.0 |
| Serve 2nd | −0.4 | +1.8 | −1.7 | −0.3 | −0.2 | −2.4 | +3.9 | +1.3 |
| Return | −0.4 | +0.6 | +5.9 | +6.1 | +1.9 | +2.2 | +12.6 | +16.7 |
| Forehand | +0.1 | +0.8 | −0.5 | +0.4 | ±0.0 | +1.1 | −0.4 | +0.8 |
| Backhand | −0.1 | +0.4 | −0.2 | +0.1 | ±0.0 | +1.6 | +0.6 | +2.3 |
| Slice | −0.1 | −0.4 | −1.0 | −1.5 | −0.3 | −0.4 | −0.2 | −0.8 |
| Net | +1.6 | −1.4 | +8.6 | +8.8 | +1.1 | −0.8 | +0.8 | +1.1 |
| Touch | +0.3 | −0.7 | +1.1 | +0.7 | +0.4 | −0.9 | −0.8 | −1.3 |
| All shots | −0.8 | +4.2 | +9.0 | +12.4 | +3.1 | +1.4 | +13.5 | +18.1 |
Set by set
| Set | Stefan Edberg | Miloslav Mecir | Net, Stefan | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | +1.3 | +2.0 | −0.8 | |
| 2 | +1.7 | +9.0 | −7.2 | |
| 3 | +0.4 | +0.6 | −0.2 | |
| 4 | +4.8 | +6.0 | −1.1 | |
| 5 | +4.2 | +0.6 | +3.7 |
Adaptation
First-serve direction mix set by set, with the share of points each direction won. The scores measure whether the server moved toward the directions that had been winning earlier in this match, set to set and every two to three service games, in points per 100 first serves. Read them as a habit, not a gain: across the tour, a direction's edge in early sets barely predicts the later ones. Whether the returner responded can't be told apart from noise within one match.
Stefan Edberg serving
| Set | Wide | Body | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 52% 73% | 28% 63% | 21% 33% |
| 2 | 41% 57% | 18% 33% | 41% 36% |
| 3 | 40% 69% | 25% 50% | 35% 64% |
| 4 | 41% 78% | 34% 60% | 25% 45% |
| 5 | 36% 88% | 32% 57% | 32% 71% |
Set to set −1.21 per 100 first serves in sets 2+
Within sets −1.27 per 100 first serves, every two to three service games
Miloslav Mecir serving
| Set | Wide | Body | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 43% 69% | 8% 67% | 49% 61% |
| 2 | 52% 58% | 4% 100% | 43% 70% |
| 3 | 38% 64% | 10% 100% | 52% 53% |
| 4 | 52% 75% | 4% 0% | 43% 60% |
| 5 | 43% 30% | 4% 100% | 52% 75% |
Set to set +0.42 per 100 first serves in sets 2+
Within sets +0.05 per 100 first serves, every two to three service games
Counterfactual: the best direction every time
If each shot had gone in the direction that is usually worth most for that stroke and position, this is how many more points each player would expect to win. It's an upper bound: the best direction isn't always on, and the chart can't see the ball's pace or position.
Stefan Edberg
16.7 points left on the table across 324 shots 5.16 per 100 shots
- Serve +1: mid-depth return to your forehand side, you at net hit FH volley through the middle ×3; FH volley crosscourt rates higher · 0.88 pts
- Serve +1: short return to your backhand side, you at net hit BH volley through the middle ×4; BH volley crosscourt rates higher · 0.88 pts
- Return of a 1st serve, T, deuce court, server rushing the net hit BH through the middle ×9; BH crosscourt rates higher · 0.85 pts
- Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your forehand side, you at net hit FH volley down the line ×6; FH volley crosscourt rates higher · 0.83 pts
Miloslav Mecir
13.2 points left on the table across 350 shots 3.77 per 100 shots
- Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your backhand side, you at net hit BH volley through the middle ×2; BH volley crosscourt rates higher · 0.52 pts
- Return of a 1st serve, T, deuce court, server rushing the net hit BH down the line ×6; BH crosscourt rates higher · 0.48 pts
- Return of a 1st serve, T, deuce court, server rushing the net hit BH through the middle ×5; BH crosscourt rates higher · 0.47 pts
- Return +1: volley to your forehand side, opponent at net hit FH through the middle ×2; FH crosscourt rates higher · 0.46 pts