Australian Open · SF · Hard · 27 Jan 1989
Jan Gunnarsson v Miloslav Mecir
76–104 in points · Miloslav Mecir won
Why it went the way it did
Miloslav Mecir won 13.7 more points than Jan Gunnarsson relative to what the serve alone predicted. Jan Gunnarsson's biggest leaks: serve 1st execution −3.0, slice shot selection −2.9, net execution −2.1.
Each shot moves its hitter's chance of winning the point. Those moves are split into direction choice, shot selection and execution, and summed here. Read both columns together: one player's gain is the other's loss.
| Shot | Jan Gunnarsson | Miloslav Mecir | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dir | Sel | Exec | Total | Dir | Sel | Exec | Total | |
| Serve 1st | −0.6 | −1.0 | −3.0 | −4.6 | −1.6 | −1.9 | +1.0 | −2.5 |
| Serve 2nd | −0.1 | −1.2 | −0.1 | −1.3 | ±0.0 | −0.6 | −0.1 | −0.7 |
| Return | +0.1 | −0.5 | +1.3 | +0.8 | ±0.0 | −0.4 | +0.7 | +0.2 |
| Forehand | −0.5 | +3.3 | −0.5 | +2.3 | −0.4 | +0.6 | +2.0 | +2.1 |
| Backhand | −0.3 | −0.3 | +2.2 | +1.6 | +0.7 | −0.4 | +2.9 | +3.2 |
| Slice | −0.1 | −2.9 | −1.3 | −4.3 | −0.1 | −0.5 | +1.3 | +0.8 |
| Net | −0.4 | +0.3 | −2.1 | −2.2 | −0.1 | +0.4 | +0.9 | +1.1 |
| Touch | −0.2 | −0.4 | +0.4 | −0.1 | +0.1 | −0.4 | +2.0 | +1.7 |
| All shots | −2.0 | −2.6 | −3.1 | −7.7 | −1.4 | −3.2 | +10.6 | +6.0 |
Set by set
| Set | Jan Gunnarsson | Miloslav Mecir | Net, Jan | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | −3.3 | −0.6 | −2.6 | |
| 2 | −2.6 | +2.4 | −5.1 | |
| 3 | −1.8 | +4.2 | −6.0 |
Adaptation
First-serve direction mix set by set, with the share of points each direction won. The scores measure whether the server moved toward the directions that had been winning earlier in this match, set to set and every two to three service games, in points per 100 first serves. Read them as a habit, not a gain: across the tour, a direction's edge in early sets barely predicts the later ones. Whether the returner responded can't be told apart from noise within one match.
Jan Gunnarsson serving
| Set | Wide | Body | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 30% 62% | 27% 33% | 43% 53% |
| 2 | 35% 50% | 26% 100% | 39% 33% |
| 3 | 32% 43% | 5% 100% | 64% 29% |
Set to set −0.34 per 100 first serves in sets 2+
Within sets +1.12 per 100 first serves, every two to three service games
Miloslav Mecir serving
| Set | Wide | Body | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 37% 44% | 37% 63% | 26% 64% |
| 2 | 58% 87% | 31% 75% | 12% 33% |
| 3 | 18% 100% | 64% 64% | 18% 25% |
Set to set −0.66 per 100 first serves in sets 2+
Within sets −0.36 per 100 first serves, every two to three service games
Counterfactual: the best direction every time
If each shot had gone in the direction that is usually worth most for that stroke and position, this is how many more points each player would expect to win. It's an upper bound: the best direction isn't always on, and the chart can't see the ball's pace or position.
Jan Gunnarsson
10.8 points left on the table across 349 shots 3.11 per 100 shots
- Serve +1: mid-depth return to your backhand side, you at net hit BH volley through the middle ×2; BH volley crosscourt rates higher · 0.56 pts
- Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your middle hit FH through the middle ×9; FH crosscourt rates higher · 0.51 pts
- Long rally, 9+: drive to your backhand side, you at net hit BH volley through the middle ×2; BH volley crosscourt rates higher · 0.49 pts
- Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your forehand side, you at net hit FH volley down the line ×3; FH volley crosscourt rates higher · 0.42 pts
Miloslav Mecir
8.3 points left on the table across 368 shots 2.25 per 100 shots
- Return of a 2nd serve, body, ad court hit BH through the middle ×13; BH crosscourt rates higher · 0.54 pts
- Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your forehand side hit FH through the middle ×8; FH crosscourt rates higher · 0.41 pts
- Serve +1: mid-depth return to your forehand side hit FH through the middle ×4; FH crosscourt rates higher · 0.36 pts
- Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your middle hit FH through the middle ×6; FH crosscourt rates higher · 0.34 pts