RallyIQ

Nice · F · Clay · 23 Apr 1989

Jerome Potier v Andrei Chesnokov

59–65 in points · Andrei Chesnokov won

Why it went the way it did

Andrei Chesnokov won 1.8 more points than Jerome Potier relative to what the serve alone predicted. Jerome Potier's biggest leaks: slice shot selection −3.1, forehand execution −2.0, serve 1st execution −1.7.

Each shot moves its hitter's chance of winning the point. Those moves are split into direction choice, shot selection and execution, and summed here. Read both columns together: one player's gain is the other's loss.

ShotJerome PotierAndrei Chesnokov
DirSelExecTotalDirSelExecTotal
Serve 1st +0.2 +0.4 −1.7 −1.1 −0.4 −0.6 +0.6 −0.5
Serve 2nd +0.1 −0.1 −0.6 −0.6 ±0.0 −0.1 +0.6 +0.5
Return −0.3 −0.1 +2.0 +1.5 −0.8 +0.5 +0.2 −0.1
Forehand −0.2 +3.8 −2.0 +1.6 −1.0 +0.6 +2.2 +1.9
Backhand −0.1 +0.3 +1.8 +1.9 −0.6 +1.0 +2.2 +2.7
Slice −0.3 −3.1 −1.0 −4.5 −0.2 −2.0 ±0.0 −2.2
Net −0.1 +0.5 +0.8 +1.2 −0.6 ±0.0 −1.5 −2.0
Touch −0.2 −0.8 −0.1 −1.0 +0.1 −0.5 +1.0 +0.7
All shots −1.0+0.8 −0.8−1.0 −3.4−1.0 +5.2+0.8

Set by set

SetJerome PotierAndrei ChesnokovNet, Jerome
1+1.6+1.7 −0.2
2−2.5−0.9 −1.6

Adaptation

First-serve direction mix set by set, with the share of points each direction won. The scores measure whether the server moved toward the directions that had been winning earlier in this match, set to set and every two to three service games, in points per 100 first serves. Read them as a habit, not a gain: across the tour, a direction's edge in early sets barely predicts the later ones. Whether the returner responded can't be told apart from noise within one match.

Jerome Potier serving

SetWideBodyT
1 46% 75% – 54% 43%
2 41% 46% 6% 100% 53% 47%

Within sets +0.14 per 100 first serves, every two to three service games

Andrei Chesnokov serving

SetWideBodyT
1 30% 27% 35% 77% 35% 69%
2 32% 63% 24% 100% 44% 27%

Set to set −3.53 per 100 first serves in sets 2+

Within sets −1.85 per 100 first serves, every two to three service games

Counterfactual: the best direction every time

If each shot had gone in the direction that is usually worth most for that stroke and position, this is how many more points each player would expect to win. It's an upper bound: the best direction isn't always on, and the chart can't see the ball's pace or position.

Jerome Potier

12.0 points left on the table across 374 shots 3.22 per 100 shots

  1. Return of a 1st serve, wide, ad court hit FH through the middle ×5; FH inside-out rates higher · 0.64 pts
  2. Long rally, 9+: drive to your backhand side hit BH slice through the middle ×8; BH slice crosscourt rates higher · 0.56 pts
  3. Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your backhand side, you at net hit BH volley through the middle ×2; BH volley crosscourt rates higher · 0.52 pts
  4. Long rally, 9+: drive to your backhand side, you at net hit BH volley through the middle ×2; BH volley crosscourt rates higher · 0.49 pts

Andrei Chesnokov

11.7 points left on the table across 347 shots 3.36 per 100 shots

  1. Return of a 2nd serve, wide, deuce court, server rushing the net hit FH through the middle ×2; FH down the line rates higher · 0.71 pts
  2. Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your backhand side hit BH through the middle ×17; BH crosscourt rates higher · 0.66 pts
  3. Long rally, 9+: drive to your backhand side, you at net hit BH volley through the middle ×2; BH volley crosscourt rates higher · 0.49 pts
  4. Long rally, 9+: drive to your backhand side hit BH through the middle ×10; BH crosscourt rates higher · 0.42 pts