Roland Garros · R128 · Clay · 28 May 1990
Francisco Clavet v Yannick Noah
161–150 in points · result not charted to completion
Why it went the way it did
Francisco Clavet won 0.2 more points than Yannick Noah relative to what the serve alone predicted. Yannick Noah's biggest leaks: slice shot selection −3.9, touch shot selection −2.7, return direction choices −2.3.
Each shot moves its hitter's chance of winning the point. Those moves are split into direction choice, shot selection and execution, and summed here. Read both columns together: one player's gain is the other's loss.
| Shot | Francisco Clavet | Yannick Noah | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dir | Sel | Exec | Total | Dir | Sel | Exec | Total | |
| Serve 1st | −0.6 | −0.7 | +1.3 | ±0.0 | −0.4 | +1.4 | +5.9 | +6.9 |
| Serve 2nd | ±0.0 | −0.2 | +0.9 | +0.7 | +0.1 | +0.3 | −0.1 | +0.2 |
| Return | +0.2 | +0.1 | −0.1 | +0.2 | −2.3 | −0.8 | +2.7 | −0.4 |
| Forehand | +1.0 | +5.8 | +2.6 | +9.5 | −0.3 | +2.6 | −0.9 | +1.4 |
| Backhand | −0.4 | +1.1 | +1.7 | +2.4 | −0.4 | +1.2 | −0.8 | ±0.0 |
| Slice | +0.1 | −0.8 | −1.5 | −2.1 | −0.1 | −3.9 | −1.2 | −5.2 |
| Net | −0.2 | −0.6 | −2.7 | −3.5 | −0.3 | +0.8 | +3.5 | +4.0 |
| Touch | −0.3 | −1.2 | +0.5 | −1.0 | −0.2 | −2.7 | +2.0 | −0.8 |
| All shots | −0.1 | +3.5 | +2.8 | +6.2 | −4.0 | −1.1 | +11.2 | +6.1 |
Set by set
| Set | Francisco Clavet | Yannick Noah | Net, Francisco | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | +0.3 | +1.9 | −1.6 | |
| 2 | +3.6 | −1.8 | +5.4 | |
| 3 | +0.4 | +3.8 | −3.4 | |
| 4 | +1.4 | −0.2 | +1.6 | |
| 5 | +0.5 | +2.3 | −1.8 |
Adaptation
First-serve direction mix set by set, with the share of points each direction won. The scores measure whether the server moved toward the directions that had been winning earlier in this match, set to set and every two to three service games, in points per 100 first serves. Read them as a habit, not a gain: across the tour, a direction's edge in early sets barely predicts the later ones. Whether the returner responded can't be told apart from noise within one match.
Francisco Clavet serving
| Set | Wide | Body | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 45% 62% | 34% 70% | 21% 67% |
| 2 | 45% 67% | 21% 57% | 33% 64% |
| 3 | 53% 53% | 25% 63% | 22% 57% |
| 4 | 75% 100% | – | 25% 100% |
| 5 | 49% 75% | 20% 13% | 32% 77% |
Set to set +0.17 per 100 first serves in sets 2+
Within sets −0.32 per 100 first serves, every two to three service games
Yannick Noah serving
| Set | Wide | Body | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 43% 67% | 18% 60% | 39% 82% |
| 2 | 57% 38% | 5% 50% | 38% 69% |
| 3 | 43% 30% | 9% 100% | 48% 100% |
| 5 | 39% 73% | 11% 67% | 50% 71% |
Set to set +2.19 per 100 first serves in sets 2+
Within sets +1.46 per 100 first serves, every two to three service games
Counterfactual: the best direction every time
If each shot had gone in the direction that is usually worth most for that stroke and position, this is how many more points each player would expect to win. It's an upper bound: the best direction isn't always on, and the chart can't see the ball's pace or position.
Francisco Clavet
15.1 points left on the table across 462 shots 3.26 per 100 shots
- Return of a 1st serve, T, ad court, server rushing the net hit BH through the middle ×7; BH crosscourt rates higher · 0.77 pts
- Rally, shots 5–8: lob to your middle, you at net hit Smash through the middle ×2; Smash crosscourt rates higher · 0.38 pts
- Return +1: volley to your middle, opponent at net hit BH through the middle ×2; BH crosscourt rates higher · 0.36 pts
- Return of a 1st serve, wide, ad court hit FH crosscourt ×4; FH inside-out rates higher · 0.35 pts
Yannick Noah
20.5 points left on the table across 479 shots 4.29 per 100 shots
- Return of a 1st serve, wide, ad court hit BH slice down the line ×8; BH slice crosscourt rates higher · 1.32 pts
- Return of a 1st serve, T, ad court hit FH through the middle ×5; FH inside-in rates higher · 0.82 pts
- Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your backhand side hit BH slice through the middle ×10; BH slice crosscourt rates higher · 0.73 pts
- Serve +1: drive to your middle, you at net hit BH volley through the middle ×3; BH volley crosscourt rates higher · 0.59 pts