San Diego · F · Hard · 12 Aug 1990
Manuela Maleeva Fragniere v Steffi Graf
42–63 in points · Steffi Graf won
Why it went the way it did
Steffi Graf won 10.0 more points than Manuela Maleeva Fragniere relative to what the serve alone predicted. Manuela Maleeva Fragniere's biggest leaks: backhand execution −3.3, slice execution −1.5, slice shot selection −1.2.
Each shot moves its hitter's chance of winning the point. Those moves are split into direction choice, shot selection and execution, and summed here. Read both columns together: one player's gain is the other's loss.
| Shot | Manuela Maleeva Fragniere | Steffi Graf | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dir | Sel | Exec | Total | Dir | Sel | Exec | Total | |
| Serve 1st | −0.1 | −0.1 | −0.7 | −1.0 | +0.3 | −0.1 | +1.2 | +1.4 |
| Serve 2nd | ±0.0 | −0.1 | +0.7 | +0.6 | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | +0.1 | +0.1 |
| Return | +0.1 | +0.4 | +1.3 | +1.8 | +0.3 | −0.5 | −0.4 | −0.5 |
| Forehand | −0.8 | +0.1 | −1.1 | −1.8 | +0.8 | +2.4 | −1.6 | +1.5 |
| Backhand | ±0.0 | +0.2 | −3.3 | −3.1 | +0.1 | ±0.0 | +0.3 | +0.4 |
| Slice | +0.4 | −1.2 | −1.5 | −2.3 | +0.6 | −2.0 | +1.1 | −0.2 |
| Net | ±0.0 | +0.1 | +0.5 | +0.6 | −0.4 | −0.3 | +1.4 | +0.6 |
| Touch | +0.3 | −0.5 | −0.9 | −1.1 | ±0.0 | +0.1 | +0.3 | +0.4 |
| All shots | −0.2 | −1.1 | −5.1 | −6.4 | +1.7 | −0.5 | +2.4 | +3.6 |
Set by set
| Set | Manuela Maleeva Fragniere | Steffi Graf | Net, Manuela | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | −6.9 | −1.6 | −5.2 | |
| 2 | +0.5 | +5.2 | −4.7 |
Adaptation
First-serve direction mix set by set, with the share of points each direction won. The scores measure whether the server moved toward the directions that had been winning earlier in this match, set to set and every two to three service games, in points per 100 first serves. Read them as a habit, not a gain: across the tour, a direction's edge in early sets barely predicts the later ones. Whether the returner responded can't be told apart from noise within one match.
Manuela Maleeva Fragniere serving
| Set | Wide | Body | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 37% 64% | 20% 17% | 43% 46% |
| 2 | 44% 73% | 32% 13% | 24% 17% |
Set to set −0.23 per 100 first serves in sets 2+
Within sets +0.43 per 100 first serves, every two to three service games
Steffi Graf serving
| Set | Wide | Body | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 58% 73% | 11% 0% | 32% 83% |
| 2 | 59% 65% | 7% 50% | 34% 50% |
Within sets +0.66 per 100 first serves, every two to three service games
Counterfactual: the best direction every time
If each shot had gone in the direction that is usually worth most for that stroke and position, this is how many more points each player would expect to win. It's an upper bound: the best direction isn't always on, and the chart can't see the ball's pace or position.
Manuela Maleeva Fragniere
6.7 points left on the table across 232 shots 2.88 per 100 shots
- Serve +1: mid-depth return to your forehand side hit FH through the middle ×4; FH crosscourt rates higher · 0.27 pts
- Return of a 1st serve, wide, deuce court hit FH down the line ×4; FH crosscourt rates higher · 0.27 pts
- Serve +1: mid-depth return to your middle hit FH through the middle ×3; FH crosscourt rates higher · 0.25 pts
- Rally, shots 5–8: slice to your forehand side hit FH through the middle ×2; FH down the line rates higher · 0.25 pts
Steffi Graf
6.4 points left on the table across 233 shots 2.73 per 100 shots
- Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your backhand side hit BH slice down the line ×4; BH slice crosscourt rates higher · 0.35 pts
- Rally, shots 5–8: lob to your backhand side, you at net hit BH volley through the middle ×1; BH volley down the line rates higher · 0.27 pts
- Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your forehand side, you at net hit FH volley through the middle ×1; FH volley crosscourt rates higher · 0.25 pts
- Return of a 2nd serve, wide, deuce court hit FH through the middle ×2; FH inside-out rates higher · 0.23 pts