US Open · R16 · Hard · 27 Aug 1990
Steffi Graf v Jennifer Capriati
59–35 in points · Steffi Graf won
Why it went the way it did
Steffi Graf won 10.8 more points than Jennifer Capriati relative to what the serve alone predicted. Jennifer Capriati's biggest leaks: forehand execution −5.0, forehand direction choices −2.9, return execution −1.2.
Each shot moves its hitter's chance of winning the point. Those moves are split into direction choice, shot selection and execution, and summed here. Read both columns together: one player's gain is the other's loss.
| Shot | Steffi Graf | Jennifer Capriati | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dir | Sel | Exec | Total | Dir | Sel | Exec | Total | |
| Serve 1st | ±0.0 | −0.1 | +0.4 | +0.4 | −0.1 | −0.1 | −0.6 | −0.7 |
| Serve 2nd | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | −1.0 | −1.0 | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | +0.5 | +0.5 |
| Return | +0.3 | −0.4 | +1.1 | +0.9 | −0.1 | +0.2 | −1.2 | −1.0 |
| Forehand | +0.1 | +1.5 | +2.2 | +3.8 | −2.9 | +0.2 | −5.0 | −7.7 |
| Backhand | −0.2 | +0.1 | −0.7 | −0.8 | −1.0 | ±0.0 | +0.5 | −0.5 |
| Slice | −0.4 | −1.6 | +1.1 | −1.0 | +0.1 | −0.8 | −0.1 | −0.9 |
| Net | −0.2 | +0.1 | −0.2 | −0.3 | +0.1 | +0.4 | +0.6 | +1.1 |
| Touch | −0.1 | ±0.0 | −0.2 | −0.3 | +0.1 | −0.1 | +0.1 | +0.1 |
| All shots | −0.5 | −0.5 | +2.7 | +1.7 | −3.7 | −0.1 | −5.2 | −9.1 |
Set by set
| Set | Steffi Graf | Jennifer Capriati | Net, Steffi | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | +0.4 | −5.3 | +5.7 | |
| 2 | +1.3 | −3.7 | +5.0 |
Adaptation
First-serve direction mix set by set, with the share of points each direction won. The scores measure whether the server moved toward the directions that had been winning earlier in this match, set to set and every two to three service games, in points per 100 first serves. Read them as a habit, not a gain: across the tour, a direction's edge in early sets barely predicts the later ones. Whether the returner responded can't be told apart from noise within one match.
Steffi Graf serving
| Set | Wide | Body | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 50% 70% | 25% 80% | 25% 80% |
| 2 | 54% 67% | 18% 40% | 29% 63% |
Within sets −0.33 per 100 first serves, every two to three service games
Jennifer Capriati serving
| Set | Wide | Body | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 63% 40% | 19% 33% | 19% 67% |
| 2 | 48% 40% | 29% 50% | 24% 20% |
Within sets +0.96 per 100 first serves, every two to three service games
Counterfactual: the best direction every time
If each shot had gone in the direction that is usually worth most for that stroke and position, this is how many more points each player would expect to win. It's an upper bound: the best direction isn't always on, and the chart can't see the ball's pace or position.
Steffi Graf
7.1 points left on the table across 216 shots 3.28 per 100 shots
- Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your middle hit FH through the middle ×6; FH crosscourt rates higher · 0.42 pts
- Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your middle hit BH slice through the middle ×8; BH slice crosscourt rates higher · 0.37 pts
- Return of a 1st serve, wide, ad court hit BH slice through the middle ×5; BH slice crosscourt rates higher · 0.30 pts
- Long rally, 9+: drive to your middle, you at net hit BH volley through the middle ×1; BH volley crosscourt rates higher · 0.28 pts
Jennifer Capriati
10.1 points left on the table across 235 shots 4.29 per 100 shots
- Long rally, 9+: slice to your middle hit FH through the middle ×7; FH crosscourt rates higher · 0.93 pts
- Rally, shots 5–8: slice to your middle hit FH through the middle ×5; FH crosscourt rates higher · 0.64 pts
- Long rally, 9+: drive to your forehand side hit FH through the middle ×9; FH crosscourt rates higher · 0.50 pts
- Rally, shots 5–8: slice to your backhand side hit BH through the middle ×4; BH down the line rates higher · 0.43 pts