US Open · QF · Hard · 6 Sep 1990
Andrei Cherkasov v Andre Agassi
59–95 in points · Andre Agassi won
Why it went the way it did
Andre Agassi won 19.7 more points than Andrei Cherkasov relative to what the serve alone predicted. Andrei Cherkasov's biggest leaks: net execution −3.3, forehand execution −2.0, serve 1st shot selection −1.7.
Each shot moves its hitter's chance of winning the point. Those moves are split into direction choice, shot selection and execution, and summed here. Read both columns together: one player's gain is the other's loss.
| Shot | Andrei Cherkasov | Andre Agassi | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dir | Sel | Exec | Total | Dir | Sel | Exec | Total | |
| Serve 1st | −0.3 | −1.7 | −0.7 | −2.7 | +0.1 | −1.3 | +0.5 | −0.7 |
| Serve 2nd | +0.1 | −0.8 | +1.7 | +1.0 | ±0.0 | −0.5 | +1.1 | +0.5 |
| Return | −0.8 | +0.3 | +3.7 | +3.1 | +0.1 | +0.3 | +4.9 | +5.4 |
| Forehand | −0.7 | +2.9 | −2.0 | +0.2 | +0.8 | +3.6 | +2.4 | +6.8 |
| Backhand | −0.2 | +0.2 | +1.0 | +1.0 | +1.0 | −0.7 | +4.5 | +4.9 |
| Slice | −0.3 | −0.9 | −0.4 | −1.6 | +0.2 | −0.5 | +0.3 | ±0.0 |
| Net | −0.3 | +0.1 | −3.3 | −3.5 | +0.2 | +0.1 | +0.8 | +1.0 |
| Touch | −0.1 | −1.0 | +0.8 | −0.3 | +0.1 | −0.3 | −0.9 | −1.1 |
| All shots | −2.8 | −0.9 | +0.8 | −2.9 | +2.6 | +0.7 | +13.5 | +16.8 |
Set by set
| Set | Andrei Cherkasov | Andre Agassi | Net, Andrei | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | −3.0 | +4.5 | −7.5 | |
| 2 | −0.2 | +5.5 | −5.7 | |
| 3 | +0.3 | +6.8 | −6.5 |
Adaptation
First-serve direction mix set by set, with the share of points each direction won. The scores measure whether the server moved toward the directions that had been winning earlier in this match, set to set and every two to three service games, in points per 100 first serves. Read them as a habit, not a gain: across the tour, a direction's edge in early sets barely predicts the later ones. Whether the returner responded can't be told apart from noise within one match.
Andrei Cherkasov serving
| Set | Wide | Body | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 35% 67% | 15% 50% | 50% 38% |
| 2 | 29% 14% | 13% 0% | 58% 43% |
| 3 | 27% 44% | 18% 50% | 55% 56% |
Set to set +0.32 per 100 first serves in sets 2+
Within sets −0.30 per 100 first serves, every two to three service games
Andre Agassi serving
| Set | Wide | Body | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 47% 89% | 5% 100% | 47% 78% |
| 2 | 58% 53% | 12% 67% | 31% 50% |
| 3 | 65% 76% | 4% 0% | 31% 75% |
Set to set +0.11 per 100 first serves in sets 2+
Within sets +0.20 per 100 first serves, every two to three service games
Counterfactual: the best direction every time
If each shot had gone in the direction that is usually worth most for that stroke and position, this is how many more points each player would expect to win. It's an upper bound: the best direction isn't always on, and the chart can't see the ball's pace or position.
Andrei Cherkasov
11.9 points left on the table across 399 shots 2.97 per 100 shots
- Return of a 1st serve, wide, deuce court hit FH down the line ×12; FH crosscourt rates higher · 0.84 pts
- Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your forehand side hit FH through the middle ×13; FH crosscourt rates higher · 0.66 pts
- Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your backhand side, you at net hit BH volley through the middle ×2; BH volley crosscourt rates higher · 0.52 pts
- Long rally, 9+: drive to your forehand side hit FH through the middle ×9; FH crosscourt rates higher · 0.49 pts
Andre Agassi
7.3 points left on the table across 413 shots 1.76 per 100 shots
- Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your backhand side hit FH through the middle ×4; FH inside-in rates higher · 0.38 pts
- Long rally, 9+: volley to your middle, opponent at net, you at net hit FH volley through the middle ×1; FH volley crosscourt rates higher · 0.32 pts
- Return of a 2nd serve, T, ad court hit FH through the middle ×3; FH inside-out rates higher · 0.28 pts
- Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your middle hit FH through the middle ×4; FH crosscourt rates higher · 0.23 pts