Australian Open · R32 · Hard · 18 Jan 1991
Omar Camporese v Boris Becker
211–208 in points · Boris Becker won
Why it went the way it did
Boris Becker won 7.1 more points than Omar Camporese relative to what the serve alone predicted. Omar Camporese's biggest leaks: serve 1st shot selection −3.9, forehand execution −2.9, return execution −2.0.
Each shot moves its hitter's chance of winning the point. Those moves are split into direction choice, shot selection and execution, and summed here. Read both columns together: one player's gain is the other's loss.
| Shot | Omar Camporese | Boris Becker | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dir | Sel | Exec | Total | Dir | Sel | Exec | Total | |
| Serve 1st | +0.3 | −3.9 | +0.4 | −3.1 | −1.0 | −1.7 | +2.8 | ±0.0 |
| Serve 2nd | −0.1 | −1.5 | +4.8 | +3.2 | ±0.0 | −0.3 | +3.2 | +2.8 |
| Return | −0.5 | +1.0 | −2.0 | −1.4 | +2.2 | +2.2 | −0.6 | +3.8 |
| Forehand | −1.5 | +3.8 | −2.9 | −0.6 | +1.3 | +4.7 | +0.4 | +6.3 |
| Backhand | −0.9 | +2.1 | −0.2 | +1.0 | −0.3 | −0.9 | −3.3 | −4.5 |
| Slice | −1.0 | −1.9 | +0.4 | −2.5 | ±0.0 | −2.7 | +0.4 | −2.2 |
| Net | +0.2 | +0.4 | +1.4 | +2.0 | +0.3 | +0.5 | −2.0 | −1.1 |
| Touch | −0.1 | −0.9 | +0.2 | −0.8 | −0.1 | −0.5 | +0.3 | −0.3 |
| All shots | −3.6 | −0.8 | +2.1 | −2.2 | +2.5 | +1.2 | +1.2 | +4.9 |
Set by set
| Set | Omar Camporese | Boris Becker | Net, Omar | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | −2.6 | +0.4 | −2.9 | |
| 2 | +2.0 | +2.2 | −0.2 | |
| 4 | +1.4 | +1.4 | ±0.0 | |
| 5 | −3.1 | +0.9 | −4.0 |
Adaptation
First-serve direction mix set by set, with the share of points each direction won. The scores measure whether the server moved toward the directions that had been winning earlier in this match, set to set and every two to three service games, in points per 100 first serves. Read them as a habit, not a gain: across the tour, a direction's edge in early sets barely predicts the later ones. Whether the returner responded can't be told apart from noise within one match.
Omar Camporese serving
| Set | Wide | Body | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 50% 75% | 5% 50% | 45% 67% |
| 2 | 41% 56% | 8% 100% | 51% 70% |
| 4 | 55% 73% | 8% 33% | 38% 40% |
| 5 | 52% 60% | 3% 50% | 45% 63% |
Set to set +0.05 per 100 first serves in sets 2+
Within sets −0.19 per 100 first serves, every two to three service games
Boris Becker serving
| Set | Wide | Body | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 41% 87% | 24% 100% | 35% 54% |
| 2 | 40% 72% | 18% 75% | 42% 58% |
| 4 | 31% 56% | 24% 57% | 45% 54% |
| 5 | 40% 58% | 17% 69% | 43% 73% |
Set to set −1.50 per 100 first serves in sets 2+
Within sets −0.81 per 100 first serves, every two to three service games
Counterfactual: the best direction every time
If each shot had gone in the direction that is usually worth most for that stroke and position, this is how many more points each player would expect to win. It's an upper bound: the best direction isn't always on, and the chart can't see the ball's pace or position.
Omar Camporese
22.1 points left on the table across 607 shots 3.64 per 100 shots
- Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your backhand side hit BH through the middle ×21; BH crosscourt rates higher · 0.81 pts
- Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your forehand side hit FH through the middle ×16; FH crosscourt rates higher · 0.81 pts
- Serve +1: mid-depth return to your middle hit FH through the middle ×6; FH crosscourt rates higher · 0.52 pts
- Serve +1: deep return to your middle hit FH through the middle ×7; FH crosscourt rates higher · 0.52 pts
Boris Becker
14.7 points left on the table across 567 shots 2.59 per 100 shots
- Return of a 2nd serve, T, ad court hit FH down the line ×5; FH inside-out rates higher · 0.43 pts
- Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your middle hit BH slice crosscourt + approach ×5; BH slice down the line + approach rates higher · 0.38 pts
- Return +1: drive to your forehand side, you at net hit FH volley down the line ×2; FH volley crosscourt rates higher · 0.37 pts
- Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your backhand side hit BH slice through the middle ×4; BH slice crosscourt rates higher · 0.29 pts