Sydney · F · Hard · 6 Oct 1991
Brad Gilbert v Stefan Edberg
63–90 in points · Stefan Edberg won
Why it went the way it did
Stefan Edberg won 16.0 more points than Brad Gilbert relative to what the serve alone predicted. Brad Gilbert's biggest leaks: return execution −1.9, backhand direction choices −0.9, backhand execution −0.9.
Each shot moves its hitter's chance of winning the point. Those moves are split into direction choice, shot selection and execution, and summed here. Read both columns together: one player's gain is the other's loss.
| Shot | Brad Gilbert | Stefan Edberg | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dir | Sel | Exec | Total | Dir | Sel | Exec | Total | |
| Serve 1st | ±0.0 | +0.4 | −0.6 | −0.1 | −0.6 | +1.1 | −1.4 | −0.9 |
| Serve 2nd | ±0.0 | −0.3 | +0.9 | +0.5 | −0.2 | +1.5 | −0.7 | +0.5 |
| Return | +0.5 | +0.7 | −1.9 | −0.6 | +0.2 | +1.5 | +3.5 | +5.2 |
| Forehand | −0.5 | +1.1 | +0.5 | +1.0 | +0.3 | +0.8 | +1.3 | +2.4 |
| Backhand | −0.9 | +0.9 | −0.9 | −0.9 | +0.1 | +0.1 | −0.2 | −0.1 |
| Slice | +0.1 | −0.8 | −0.5 | −1.2 | ±0.0 | −0.5 | +0.4 | ±0.0 |
| Net | ±0.0 | −0.3 | −0.4 | −0.7 | +1.1 | −0.1 | +5.5 | +6.5 |
| Touch | +0.1 | −0.5 | −0.4 | −0.8 | +0.1 | ±0.0 | −0.6 | −0.5 |
| All shots | −0.8 | +1.2 | −3.2 | −2.8 | +1.0 | +4.3 | +7.9 | +13.2 |
Set by set
| Set | Brad Gilbert | Stefan Edberg | Net, Brad | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | −1.1 | +2.2 | −3.3 | |
| 2 | −1.6 | +3.2 | −4.7 | |
| 3 | −0.2 | +7.8 | −8.0 |
Adaptation
First-serve direction mix set by set, with the share of points each direction won. The scores measure whether the server moved toward the directions that had been winning earlier in this match, set to set and every two to three service games, in points per 100 first serves. Read them as a habit, not a gain: across the tour, a direction's edge in early sets barely predicts the later ones. Whether the returner responded can't be told apart from noise within one match.
Brad Gilbert serving
| Set | Wide | Body | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 50% 50% | 17% 75% | 33% 63% |
| 2 | 56% 44% | 6% 50% | 38% 58% |
| 3 | 60% 50% | 17% 40% | 23% 57% |
Set to set −3.14 per 100 first serves in sets 2+
Within sets −2.16 per 100 first serves, every two to three service games
Stefan Edberg serving
| Set | Wide | Body | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 59% 77% | 14% 100% | 27% 50% |
| 2 | 39% 56% | 30% 57% | 30% 86% |
| 3 | 32% 67% | 42% 88% | 26% 100% |
Set to set +0.21 per 100 first serves in sets 2+
Within sets −0.90 per 100 first serves, every two to three service games
Counterfactual: the best direction every time
If each shot had gone in the direction that is usually worth most for that stroke and position, this is how many more points each player would expect to win. It's an upper bound: the best direction isn't always on, and the chart can't see the ball's pace or position.
Brad Gilbert
9.5 points left on the table across 192 shots 4.96 per 100 shots
- Return of a 1st serve, wide, ad court, server rushing the net hit BH through the middle ×6; BH crosscourt rates higher · 0.47 pts
- Serve +1: mid-depth return to your backhand side, opponent at net hit BH through the middle ×2; BH crosscourt rates higher · 0.41 pts
- Return +1: volley to your backhand side, opponent at net hit BH through the middle ×2; BH crosscourt rates higher · 0.36 pts
- Return of a 2nd serve, body, deuce court, server rushing the net hit BH through the middle ×2; BH crosscourt rates higher · 0.32 pts
Stefan Edberg
8.2 points left on the table across 200 shots 4.09 per 100 shots
- Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your middle, you at net hit BH volley through the middle ×2; BH volley crosscourt rates higher · 0.44 pts
- Return of a 1st serve, wide, ad court, server rushing the net hit BH through the middle ×4; BH crosscourt rates higher · 0.31 pts
- Return of a 1st serve, T, ad court hit FH through the middle + approach ×1; FH crosscourt + approach rates higher · 0.30 pts
- Rally, shots 5–8: slice to your forehand side, you at net hit FH volley through the middle ×1; FH volley crosscourt rates higher · 0.29 pts