Australian Open · QF · Hard · 17 Jan 1992
Michael Stich v Richard Krajicek
177–183 in points · result not charted to completion
Why it went the way it did
Richard Krajicek won 5.0 more points than Michael Stich relative to what the serve alone predicted. Michael Stich's biggest leaks: serve 1st execution −6.7, return execution −5.6, serve 2nd execution −5.5.
Each shot moves its hitter's chance of winning the point. Those moves are split into direction choice, shot selection and execution, and summed here. Read both columns together: one player's gain is the other's loss.
| Shot | Michael Stich | Richard Krajicek | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dir | Sel | Exec | Total | Dir | Sel | Exec | Total | |
| Serve 1st | +0.3 | +10.5 | −6.7 | +4.2 | −0.4 | +10.1 | −5.6 | +4.2 |
| Serve 2nd | +0.2 | +4.9 | −5.5 | −0.5 | −0.3 | +4.9 | −1.8 | +2.8 |
| Return | −0.9 | +0.3 | −5.6 | −6.2 | +0.6 | −0.3 | −3.1 | −2.8 |
| Forehand | +0.4 | +0.5 | +1.4 | +2.3 | +0.2 | +0.8 | −0.5 | +0.5 |
| Backhand | +0.5 | +0.9 | −2.4 | −1.0 | +0.3 | +0.9 | −1.9 | −0.7 |
| Slice | +0.1 | −1.4 | −0.5 | −1.8 | +0.2 | −1.4 | ±0.0 | −1.3 |
| Net | +1.8 | −0.8 | +1.4 | +2.5 | +0.3 | −0.5 | −1.0 | −1.2 |
| Touch | +0.3 | −1.4 | −0.9 | −2.0 | −0.2 | −0.6 | +1.8 | +1.1 |
| All shots | +2.6 | +13.7 | −18.8 | −2.6 | +0.7 | +13.8 | −12.1 | +2.4 |
Set by set
| Set | Michael Stich | Richard Krajicek | Net, Michael | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | −0.7 | +0.3 | −1.0 | |
| 2 | −0.9 | +2.0 | −2.9 | |
| 3 | −1.2 | −4.7 | +3.5 | |
| 4 | +1.4 | +0.7 | +0.7 | |
| 5 | −1.2 | +4.1 | −5.4 |
Adaptation
First-serve direction mix set by set, with the share of points each direction won. The scores measure whether the server moved toward the directions that had been winning earlier in this match, set to set and every two to three service games, in points per 100 first serves. Read them as a habit, not a gain: across the tour, a direction's edge in early sets barely predicts the later ones. Whether the returner responded can't be told apart from noise within one match.
Michael Stich serving
| Set | Wide | Body | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 43% 78% | 7% 33% | 50% 67% |
| 2 | 52% 59% | 2% 100% | 45% 68% |
| 3 | 31% 91% | 3% 0% | 66% 78% |
| 4 | 52% 75% | – | 48% 53% |
| 5 | 37% 46% | 3% 100% | 60% 67% |
Set to set −0.13 per 100 first serves in sets 2+
Within sets −0.51 per 100 first serves, every two to three service games
Richard Krajicek serving
| Set | Wide | Body | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 45% 79% | 3% 100% | 52% 69% |
| 2 | 36% 93% | 18% 71% | 46% 56% |
| 3 | 44% 59% | 13% 100% | 44% 71% |
| 4 | 48% 63% | 8% 67% | 45% 61% |
| 5 | 36% 89% | 12% 100% | 52% 69% |
Set to set +0.23 per 100 first serves in sets 2+
Within sets +0.12 per 100 first serves, every two to three service games
Counterfactual: the best direction every time
If each shot had gone in the direction that is usually worth most for that stroke and position, this is how many more points each player would expect to win. It's an upper bound: the best direction isn't always on, and the chart can't see the ball's pace or position.
Michael Stich
14.3 points left on the table across 315 shots 4.53 per 100 shots
- Return of a 2nd serve, body, deuce court, server rushing the net hit BH through the middle ×9; BH crosscourt rates higher · 1.42 pts
- Return of a 2nd serve, body, deuce court, server rushing the net hit BH down the line ×9; BH crosscourt rates higher · 0.96 pts
- Return of a 2nd serve, wide, ad court, server rushing the net hit BH through the middle ×7; BH crosscourt rates higher · 0.66 pts
- Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your forehand side, you at net hit FH volley down the line ×4; FH volley crosscourt rates higher · 0.55 pts
Richard Krajicek
14.5 points left on the table across 323 shots 4.49 per 100 shots
- Serve +1: drive to your forehand side, you at net hit FH volley through the middle ×6; FH volley crosscourt rates higher · 1.47 pts
- Serve +1: drive to your middle, you at net hit FH volley through the middle ×5; FH volley crosscourt rates higher · 1.10 pts
- Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your backhand side, you at net hit BH volley down the line ×5; BH volley crosscourt rates higher · 0.60 pts
- Serve +1: drive to your middle, you at net hit FH volley down the line ×12; FH volley crosscourt rates higher · 0.59 pts