New Haven · SF · Hard · 20 Aug 1994
Michael Stich v Boris Becker
47–63 in points · Boris Becker won
Why it went the way it did
Boris Becker won 7.3 more points than Michael Stich relative to what the serve alone predicted. Michael Stich's biggest leaks: backhand execution −2.4, return execution −2.0, slice shot selection −0.7.
Each shot moves its hitter's chance of winning the point. Those moves are split into direction choice, shot selection and execution, and summed here. Read both columns together: one player's gain is the other's loss.
| Shot | Michael Stich | Boris Becker | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dir | Sel | Exec | Total | Dir | Sel | Exec | Total | |
| Serve 1st | −0.1 | +0.7 | +0.9 | +1.5 | +0.1 | +0.8 | +0.9 | +1.8 |
| Serve 2nd | −0.1 | +0.1 | +0.4 | +0.4 | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | −0.5 | −0.5 |
| Return | +0.1 | −0.4 | −2.0 | −2.2 | +0.3 | +0.1 | +2.6 | +3.0 |
| Forehand | −0.4 | +0.6 | +3.0 | +3.3 | ±0.0 | +0.9 | −0.2 | +0.7 |
| Backhand | −0.1 | +0.4 | −2.4 | −2.1 | ±0.0 | +0.4 | +0.6 | +1.0 |
| Slice | +0.2 | −0.7 | −0.4 | −0.9 | +0.2 | −0.7 | +0.4 | ±0.0 |
| Net | −0.7 | +0.1 | +0.1 | −0.5 | +0.3 | ±0.0 | +0.4 | +0.8 |
| Touch | ±0.0 | −0.2 | −0.3 | −0.5 | −0.1 | −0.1 | −0.3 | −0.5 |
| All shots | −0.9 | +0.6 | −0.8 | −1.0 | +0.9 | +1.4 | +4.0 | +6.2 |
Set by set
| Set | Michael Stich | Boris Becker | Net, Michael | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | −0.9 | +1.4 | −2.3 | |
| 2 | −0.1 | +4.9 | −5.0 |
Adaptation
First-serve direction mix set by set, with the share of points each direction won. The scores measure whether the server moved toward the directions that had been winning earlier in this match, set to set and every two to three service games, in points per 100 first serves. Read them as a habit, not a gain: across the tour, a direction's edge in early sets barely predicts the later ones. Whether the returner responded can't be told apart from noise within one match.
Michael Stich serving
| Set | Wide | Body | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 40% 63% | 10% 100% | 50% 40% |
| 2 | 30% 44% | 10% 67% | 60% 61% |
Within sets +0.31 per 100 first serves, every two to three service games
Boris Becker serving
| Set | Wide | Body | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 48% 64% | 7% 50% | 45% 69% |
| 2 | 37% 73% | 3% 0% | 60% 78% |
Set to set +2.56 per 100 first serves in sets 2+
Within sets −0.27 per 100 first serves, every two to three service games
Counterfactual: the best direction every time
If each shot had gone in the direction that is usually worth most for that stroke and position, this is how many more points each player would expect to win. It's an upper bound: the best direction isn't always on, and the chart can't see the ball's pace or position.
Michael Stich
7.0 points left on the table across 168 shots 4.18 per 100 shots
- Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your forehand side, you at net hit FH volley through the middle ×2; FH volley crosscourt rates higher · 0.56 pts
- Return +1: volley to your backhand side, opponent at net hit BH through the middle ×3; BH crosscourt rates higher · 0.53 pts
- Serve +1: drive to your backhand side, you at net hit BH volley through the middle ×2; BH volley crosscourt rates higher · 0.43 pts
- Return of a 1st serve, T, deuce court, server rushing the net hit BH slice through the middle ×7; BH slice crosscourt rates higher · 0.37 pts
Boris Becker
4.7 points left on the table across 154 shots 3.04 per 100 shots
- Serve +1: slice to your backhand side, you at net hit BH volley through the middle ×1; BH volley crosscourt rates higher · 0.24 pts
- Serve +1: slice to your middle, you at net hit BH volley through the middle ×1; BH volley crosscourt rates higher · 0.22 pts
- Return +1: volley to your forehand side, opponent at net hit FH lob down the line ×2; FH lob crosscourt rates higher · 0.20 pts
- Return +1: volley to your backhand side, opponent at net hit FH lob inside-out ×1; FH lob through the middle rates higher · 0.19 pts