Marseille · F · Hard · 18 Feb 1996
Cedric Pioline v Guy Forget
65–74 in points · Guy Forget won
Why it went the way it did
Guy Forget won 6.3 more points than Cedric Pioline relative to what the serve alone predicted. Cedric Pioline's biggest leaks: return execution −2.8, slice execution −1.5, slice shot selection −1.2.
Each shot moves its hitter's chance of winning the point. Those moves are split into direction choice, shot selection and execution, and summed here. Read both columns together: one player's gain is the other's loss.
| Shot | Cedric Pioline | Guy Forget | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dir | Sel | Exec | Total | Dir | Sel | Exec | Total | |
| Serve 1st | −0.2 | −0.9 | +0.1 | −1.0 | −0.1 | +0.5 | +0.3 | +0.8 |
| Serve 2nd | ±0.0 | −0.6 | −0.7 | −1.3 | −0.1 | −0.4 | +1.6 | +1.2 |
| Return | −0.1 | −0.2 | −2.8 | −3.1 | −0.4 | −0.9 | +0.8 | −0.5 |
| Forehand | −0.3 | +1.1 | −0.5 | +0.3 | −0.3 | +1.1 | +0.4 | +1.1 |
| Backhand | −0.1 | −0.8 | +0.6 | −0.3 | −0.3 | −0.3 | +0.8 | +0.1 |
| Slice | −0.3 | −1.2 | −1.5 | −3.0 | −0.1 | −1.0 | +1.1 | ±0.0 |
| Net | −0.3 | ±0.0 | +0.8 | +0.6 | −1.5 | ±0.0 | −1.8 | −3.3 |
| Touch | ±0.0 | −0.3 | +0.5 | +0.2 | ±0.0 | −0.6 | ±0.0 | −0.6 |
| All shots | −1.2 | −2.9 | −3.4 | −7.6 | −2.8 | −1.6 | +3.2 | −1.3 |
Set by set
| Set | Cedric Pioline | Guy Forget | Net, Cedric | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | −4.6 | −0.4 | −4.3 | |
| 2 | −2.9 | −0.9 | −2.0 |
Adaptation
First-serve direction mix set by set, with the share of points each direction won. The scores measure whether the server moved toward the directions that had been winning earlier in this match, set to set and every two to three service games, in points per 100 first serves. Read them as a habit, not a gain: across the tour, a direction's edge in early sets barely predicts the later ones. Whether the returner responded can't be told apart from noise within one match.
Cedric Pioline serving
| Set | Wide | Body | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 44% 67% | 15% 14% | 42% 60% |
| 2 | 39% 45% | 11% 67% | 50% 43% |
Set to set +0.46 per 100 first serves in sets 2+
Within sets +0.28 per 100 first serves, every two to three service games
Guy Forget serving
| Set | Wide | Body | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 34% 75% | 11% 100% | 54% 53% |
| 2 | 39% 73% | 7% 50% | 54% 40% |
Set to set −0.11 per 100 first serves in sets 2+
Within sets −2.11 per 100 first serves, every two to three service games
Counterfactual: the best direction every time
If each shot had gone in the direction that is usually worth most for that stroke and position, this is how many more points each player would expect to win. It's an upper bound: the best direction isn't always on, and the chart can't see the ball's pace or position.
Cedric Pioline
7.1 points left on the table across 233 shots 3.04 per 100 shots
- Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your backhand side, you at net hit BH volley through the middle ×1; BH volley crosscourt rates higher · 0.26 pts
- Return of a 1st serve, T, deuce court, server rushing the net hit BH through the middle ×5; BH crosscourt rates higher · 0.24 pts
- Serve +1: mid-depth return to your middle, you at net hit FH volley through the middle ×1; FH volley crosscourt rates higher · 0.24 pts
- Long rally, 9+: drive to your middle hit FH through the middle + approach ×1; FH down the line + approach rates higher · 0.23 pts
Guy Forget
10.1 points left on the table across 230 shots 4.38 per 100 shots
- Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your middle, you at net hit BH volley through the middle ×2; BH volley crosscourt rates higher · 0.44 pts
- Return of a 1st serve, T, deuce court hit FH through the middle ×3; FH inside-out rates higher · 0.32 pts
- Serve +1: short return to your middle, you at net hit FH volley through the middle ×1; FH volley crosscourt rates higher · 0.31 pts
- Serve +1: mid-depth return to your middle, you at net hit BH volley through the middle ×1; BH volley crosscourt rates higher · 0.31 pts