Hamburg · QF · Clay · 3 May 1996
Martina Hingis v Mary Pierce
78–91 in points · Mary Pierce won
Why it went the way it did
Mary Pierce won 6.8 more points than Martina Hingis relative to what the serve alone predicted. Martina Hingis's biggest leaks: touch shot selection −1.6, slice shot selection −1.5, slice execution −0.8.
Each shot moves its hitter's chance of winning the point. Those moves are split into direction choice, shot selection and execution, and summed here. Read both columns together: one player's gain is the other's loss.
| Shot | Martina Hingis | Mary Pierce | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dir | Sel | Exec | Total | Dir | Sel | Exec | Total | |
| Serve 1st | +0.1 | −0.1 | +0.5 | +0.5 | +0.3 | −0.1 | −0.3 | −0.2 |
| Serve 2nd | +0.1 | ±0.0 | +1.0 | +1.1 | +0.1 | ±0.0 | +0.3 | +0.3 |
| Return | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | −0.1 | −0.1 | +0.4 | +0.7 | +2.6 | +3.6 |
| Forehand | +1.3 | +2.4 | +1.0 | +4.7 | +1.0 | +1.5 | +1.7 | +4.2 |
| Backhand | +1.0 | +1.0 | +0.7 | +2.8 | +1.5 | +1.9 | +2.0 | +5.4 |
| Slice | −0.1 | −1.5 | −0.8 | −2.4 | ±0.0 | −0.5 | +0.2 | −0.3 |
| Net | +0.3 | +0.2 | +0.8 | +1.4 | +0.5 | +1.0 | −0.4 | +1.0 |
| Touch | +0.2 | −1.6 | +0.2 | −1.1 | −0.1 | −1.5 | +0.9 | −0.6 |
| Other | ±0.0 | −0.1 | +0.1 | +0.1 | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | +0.1 | +0.1 |
| All shots | +3.0 | +0.4 | +3.5 | +6.8 | +3.7 | +3.0 | +6.9 | +13.6 |
Set by set
| Set | Martina Hingis | Mary Pierce | Net, Martina | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | +6.1 | +7.7 | −1.6 | |
| 2 | +0.8 | +5.9 | −5.1 |
Adaptation
First-serve direction mix set by set, with the share of points each direction won. The scores measure whether the server moved toward the directions that had been winning earlier in this match, set to set and every two to three service games, in points per 100 first serves. Read them as a habit, not a gain: across the tour, a direction's edge in early sets barely predicts the later ones. Whether the returner responded can't be told apart from noise within one match.
Martina Hingis serving
| Set | Wide | Body | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 50% 46% | 21% 30% | 29% 64% |
| 2 | 57% 52% | 20% 11% | 23% 50% |
Set to set −0.63 per 100 first serves in sets 2+
Within sets −0.40 per 100 first serves, every two to three service games
Mary Pierce serving
| Set | Wide | Body | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 67% 50% | 13% 33% | 20% 67% |
| 2 | 67% 57% | 10% 100% | 24% 40% |
Set to set −0.08 per 100 first serves in sets 2+
Within sets +0.09 per 100 first serves, every two to three service games
Counterfactual: the best direction every time
If each shot had gone in the direction that is usually worth most for that stroke and position, this is how many more points each player would expect to win. It's an upper bound: the best direction isn't always on, and the chart can't see the ball's pace or position.
Martina Hingis
5.8 points left on the table across 327 shots 1.78 per 100 shots
- Return of a 1st serve, wide, deuce court hit FH down the line ×6; FH crosscourt rates higher · 0.41 pts
- Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your forehand side hit FH down the line ×18; FH crosscourt rates higher · 0.34 pts
- Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your backhand side hit BH through the middle ×5; BH crosscourt rates higher · 0.21 pts
- Return of a 1st serve, wide, ad court hit BH down the line ×3; BH crosscourt rates higher · 0.18 pts
Mary Pierce
5.2 points left on the table across 343 shots 1.51 per 100 shots
- Return of a 1st serve, wide, ad court hit BH down the line ×7; BH crosscourt rates higher · 0.41 pts
- Return +1: drive to your backhand side hit BH down the line ×18; BH crosscourt rates higher · 0.28 pts
- Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your forehand side hit FH through the middle ×5; FH crosscourt rates higher · 0.27 pts
- Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your forehand side hit FH down the line ×13; FH crosscourt rates higher · 0.24 pts