Rome Masters · F · Clay · 19 May 1996

Richard Krajicek v Thomas Muster

102–111 in points · Thomas Muster won

Why it went the way it did

Thomas Muster won 4.2 more points than Richard Krajicek relative to what the serve alone predicted. Richard Krajicek's biggest leaks: forehand execution −4.8, slice shot selection −3.6, slice execution −2.9.

Each shot moves its hitter's chance of winning the point. Those moves are split into direction choice, shot selection and execution, and summed here. Read both columns together: one player's gain is the other's loss.

Shot	Richard Krajicek				Thomas Muster
Shot	Dir	Sel	Exec	Total	Dir	Sel	Exec	Total
Serve 1st	−0.3	+2.6	+0.2	+2.5	−0.5	−1.0	+2.6	+1.1
Serve 2nd	±0.0	+0.9	−2.6	−1.7	±0.0	−0.1	+0.7	+0.6
Return	−1.7	−0.2	−1.0	−3.0	−0.1	−0.6	−1.9	−2.5
Forehand	−0.3	+2.8	−4.8	−2.3	+0.2	+1.7	−1.4	+0.4
Backhand	−0.1	+0.2	+0.2	+0.3	−1.1	+1.3	−0.2	−0.1
Slice	−0.9	−3.6	−2.9	−7.4	±0.0	−1.6	−1.0	−2.7
Net	+0.9	+0.4	+2.6	+3.9	+0.2	+0.3	+0.8	+1.4
Touch	±0.0	−0.6	−0.6	−1.2	+0.1	−2.4	−0.5	−2.8
All shots	−2.4	+2.5	−8.8	−8.7	−1.3	−2.4	−0.8	−4.5

Set by set

Set	Richard Krajicek	Thomas Muster	Net, Richard
1	−8.1	−0.5	−7.6
2	−4.6	−4.6	±0.0
3	+5.8	+1.6	+4.2
4	−1.9	−1.1	−0.8

Adaptation

First-serve direction mix set by set, with the share of points each direction won. The scores measure whether the server moved toward the directions that had been winning earlier in this match, set to set and every two to three service games, in points per 100 first serves. Read them as a habit, not a gain: across the tour, a direction's edge in early sets barely predicts the later ones. Whether the returner responded can't be told apart from noise within one match.

Richard Krajicek serving

Set	Wide	Body	T
1	35% 73%	6% 0%	58% 39%
2	44% 75%	4% 100%	52% 64%
3	43% 77%	7% 100%	50% 53%
4	53% 60%	–	47% 78%

Set to set +0.14 per 100 first serves in sets 2+

Within sets −0.26 per 100 first serves, every two to three service games

Thomas Muster serving

Set	Wide	Body	T
1	25% 80%	35% 71%	40% 88%
2	53% 65%	16% 60%	31% 80%
3	32% 43%	23% 60%	45% 50%
4	45% 71%	19% 83%	35% 55%

Set to set −0.76 per 100 first serves in sets 2+

Within sets −0.05 per 100 first serves, every two to three service games

Counterfactual: the best direction every time

If each shot had gone in the direction that is usually worth most for that stroke and position, this is how many more points each player would expect to win. It's an upper bound: the best direction isn't always on, and the chart can't see the ball's pace or position.

Richard Krajicek

15.8 points left on the table across 383 shots 4.13 per 100 shots

Return of a 1st serve, wide, ad court hit BH slice down the line ×8; BH slice crosscourt rates higher · 1.32 pts
Return of a 1st serve, wide, ad court hit BH slice through the middle ×11; BH slice crosscourt rates higher · 0.93 pts
Serve +1: short return to your middle, you at net hit BH volley through the middle ×4; BH volley crosscourt rates higher · 0.80 pts
Return +1: drive to your backhand side hit BH slice through the middle ×9; BH slice crosscourt rates higher · 0.75 pts

Thomas Muster

10.9 points left on the table across 335 shots 3.26 per 100 shots

Return of a 1st serve, T, ad court, server rushing the net hit BH through the middle ×7; BH crosscourt rates higher · 0.77 pts
Return of a 1st serve, wide, deuce court, server rushing the net hit BH slice through the middle ×5; BH slice down the line rates higher · 0.39 pts
Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your backhand side hit FH through the middle ×4; FH inside-in rates higher · 0.38 pts
Return of a 1st serve, wide, deuce court, server rushing the net hit BH through the middle ×4; BH crosscourt rates higher · 0.37 pts