RallyIQ

US Open · R16 · Hard · 3 Sep 1996

Tim Henman v Stefan Edberg

141–159 in points · Stefan Edberg won

Why it went the way it did

Stefan Edberg won 10.5 more points than Tim Henman relative to what the serve alone predicted. Tim Henman's biggest leaks: forehand execution −4.2, serve 1st execution −4.1, backhand execution −2.4.

Each shot moves its hitter's chance of winning the point. Those moves are split into direction choice, shot selection and execution, and summed here. Read both columns together: one player's gain is the other's loss.

ShotTim HenmanStefan Edberg
DirSelExecTotalDirSelExecTotal
Serve 1st +0.5 −2.3 −4.1 −5.9 −0.4 +2.8 −1.6 +0.8
Serve 2nd +0.1 −0.8 −0.1 −0.9 ±0.0 +0.5 +2.0 +2.5
Return +0.6 +0.6 −1.5 −0.2 +1.0 ±0.0 −1.5 −0.4
Forehand +0.1 +3.8 −4.2 −0.3 −0.4 +1.5 −3.7 −2.6
Backhand −0.4 +0.4 −2.4 −2.3 ±0.0 +0.4 −3.8 −3.4
Slice +0.2 −1.4 +0.2 −1.0 +0.2 −0.8 ±0.0 −0.6
Net −0.1 −0.1 −1.3 −1.6 +1.3 −0.4 +0.6 +1.5
Touch −0.2 +0.2 −0.4 −0.4 +0.1 −0.3 −0.3 −0.6
Other −0.1 −0.2 −0.3 −0.6 ±0.0 ±0.0 ±0.0 ±0.0
All shots +0.9±0.0 −14.2−13.3 +2.0+3.6 −8.4−2.8

Set by set

SetTim HenmanStefan EdbergNet, Tim
1−2.9−4.0 +1.2
2−6.4−3.6 −2.7
3−2.3+1.9 −4.2
4−1.8+3.0 −4.7

Adaptation

First-serve direction mix set by set, with the share of points each direction won. The scores measure whether the server moved toward the directions that had been winning earlier in this match, set to set and every two to three service games, in points per 100 first serves. Read them as a habit, not a gain: across the tour, a direction's edge in early sets barely predicts the later ones. Whether the returner responded can't be told apart from noise within one match.

Tim Henman serving

SetWideBodyT
1 41% 60% – 59% 73%
2 41% 67% 6% 67% 53% 63%
3 52% 59% – 48% 69%
4 47% 43% 3% 0% 50% 60%

Set to set −0.06 per 100 first serves in sets 2+

Within sets +0.02 per 100 first serves, every two to three service games

Stefan Edberg serving

SetWideBodyT
1 52% 69% 16% 100% 32% 40%
2 43% 78% 24% 62% 33% 61%
3 56% 89% 6% 100% 38% 83%
4 63% 65% 3% 100% 34% 64%

Set to set +0.51 per 100 first serves in sets 2+

Within sets −0.22 per 100 first serves, every two to three service games

Counterfactual: the best direction every time

If each shot had gone in the direction that is usually worth most for that stroke and position, this is how many more points each player would expect to win. It's an upper bound: the best direction isn't always on, and the chart can't see the ball's pace or position.

Tim Henman

12.7 points left on the table across 364 shots 3.50 per 100 shots

  1. Return of a 1st serve, wide, ad court, server rushing the net hit BH through the middle ×9; BH crosscourt rates higher · 0.70 pts
  2. Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your backhand side, you at net hit BH volley down the line ×4; BH volley crosscourt rates higher · 0.48 pts
  3. Return +1: volley to your forehand side, opponent at net hit FH through the middle ×2; FH crosscourt rates higher · 0.46 pts
  4. Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your middle, you at net hit BH volley through the middle ×2; BH volley crosscourt rates higher · 0.44 pts

Stefan Edberg

13.2 points left on the table across 366 shots 3.60 per 100 shots

  1. Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your forehand side, you at net hit FH volley down the line ×5; FH volley crosscourt rates higher · 0.69 pts
  2. Return of a 2nd serve, body, deuce court hit BH slice through the middle + approach ×4; BH slice down the line + approach rates higher · 0.50 pts
  3. Return +1: drive to your forehand side, you at net hit FH volley down the line ×2; FH volley crosscourt rates higher · 0.37 pts
  4. Return +1: drive to your forehand side, you at net hit FH volley through the middle ×1; FH volley crosscourt rates higher · 0.36 pts