Vienna · F · Hard · 13 Oct 1996
Jan Siemerink v Boris Becker
110–139 in points · Boris Becker won
Why it went the way it did
Boris Becker won 16.0 more points than Jan Siemerink relative to what the serve alone predicted. Jan Siemerink's biggest leaks: return execution −4.0, serve 2nd execution −3.7, return shot selection −3.4.
Each shot moves its hitter's chance of winning the point. Those moves are split into direction choice, shot selection and execution, and summed here. Read both columns together: one player's gain is the other's loss.
| Shot | Jan Siemerink | Boris Becker | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dir | Sel | Exec | Total | Dir | Sel | Exec | Total | |
| Serve 1st | +0.2 | +1.8 | +2.5 | +4.6 | −0.1 | +1.3 | −0.7 | +0.5 |
| Serve 2nd | −0.5 | +2.7 | −3.7 | −1.5 | +0.1 | −0.1 | −0.5 | −0.5 |
| Return | −1.4 | −3.4 | −4.0 | −8.8 | ±0.0 | +0.8 | +1.9 | +2.7 |
| Forehand | −0.1 | +0.3 | −0.9 | −0.8 | +0.1 | +1.5 | −1.8 | −0.2 |
| Backhand | −0.2 | +0.8 | −0.6 | ±0.0 | +0.3 | ±0.0 | −1.2 | −0.8 |
| Slice | −0.2 | −1.2 | −0.6 | −1.9 | ±0.0 | −0.2 | +1.1 | +0.8 |
| Net | −1.1 | −0.7 | +0.8 | −1.0 | +0.7 | ±0.0 | +5.8 | +6.5 |
| Touch | +0.2 | −0.6 | +0.6 | +0.2 | −0.1 | −1.0 | −1.0 | −2.1 |
| All shots | −3.1 | −0.3 | −5.8 | −9.1 | +1.0 | +2.4 | +3.5 | +6.9 |
Set by set
| Set | Jan Siemerink | Boris Becker | Net, Jan | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | −3.7 | +0.7 | −4.5 | |
| 2 | +3.3 | +4.0 | −0.6 | |
| 3 | −4.7 | +2.7 | −7.4 | |
| 4 | −4.0 | −0.5 | −3.5 |
Adaptation
First-serve direction mix set by set, with the share of points each direction won. The scores measure whether the server moved toward the directions that had been winning earlier in this match, set to set and every two to three service games, in points per 100 first serves. Read them as a habit, not a gain: across the tour, a direction's edge in early sets barely predicts the later ones. Whether the returner responded can't be told apart from noise within one match.
Jan Siemerink serving
| Set | Wide | Body | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 35% 71% | 8% 33% | 58% 57% |
| 2 | 38% 73% | 5% 100% | 56% 82% |
| 3 | 48% 57% | 7% 100% | 45% 38% |
| 4 | 55% 50% | – | 45% 80% |
Set to set +0.33 per 100 first serves in sets 2+
Within sets −0.86 per 100 first serves, every two to three service games
Boris Becker serving
| Set | Wide | Body | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 55% 78% | – | 45% 67% |
| 2 | 39% 93% | 11% 75% | 50% 74% |
| 3 | 47% 78% | 16% 67% | 37% 100% |
| 4 | 45% 69% | 14% 50% | 41% 92% |
Set to set −0.68 per 100 first serves in sets 2+
Within sets −1.02 per 100 first serves, every two to three service games
Counterfactual: the best direction every time
If each shot had gone in the direction that is usually worth most for that stroke and position, this is how many more points each player would expect to win. It's an upper bound: the best direction isn't always on, and the chart can't see the ball's pace or position.
Jan Siemerink
16.6 points left on the table across 247 shots 6.70 per 100 shots
- Serve +1: short return to your middle, you at net hit FH volley through the middle ×4; FH volley crosscourt rates higher · 0.99 pts
- Return of a 2nd serve, wide, deuce court hit BH slice through the middle ×9; BH slice inside-in rates higher · 0.84 pts
- Return of a 1st serve, wide, ad court, server rushing the net hit FH through the middle ×5; FH crosscourt rates higher · 0.75 pts
- Return of a 2nd serve, T, deuce court, server rushing the net hit FH through the middle ×4; FH inside-in rates higher · 0.70 pts
Boris Becker
10.0 points left on the table across 235 shots 4.24 per 100 shots
- Return of a 2nd serve, body, ad court, server rushing the net hit FH through the middle ×5; FH down the line rates higher · 0.89 pts
- Serve +1: short return to your middle, you at net hit FH volley through the middle ×2; FH volley crosscourt rates higher · 0.50 pts
- Serve +1: short return to your forehand side, you at net hit FH volley through the middle ×1; FH volley crosscourt rates higher · 0.44 pts
- Return of a 1st serve, T, deuce court, server rushing the net hit BH through the middle ×8; BH crosscourt rates higher · 0.39 pts