WTA Tour Championships · SF · Hard · 21 Nov 1998
Lindsay Davenport v Steffi Graf
81–78 in points · Lindsay Davenport won
Why it went the way it did
Lindsay Davenport won 1.0 more points than Steffi Graf relative to what the serve alone predicted. Steffi Graf's biggest leaks: slice shot selection −2.8, backhand execution −0.9, return execution −0.8.
Each shot moves its hitter's chance of winning the point. Those moves are split into direction choice, shot selection and execution, and summed here. Read both columns together: one player's gain is the other's loss.
| Shot | Lindsay Davenport | Steffi Graf | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dir | Sel | Exec | Total | Dir | Sel | Exec | Total | |
| Serve 1st | +0.6 | −0.2 | +1.5 | +1.9 | ±0.0 | −0.2 | +2.9 | +2.8 |
| Serve 2nd | ±0.0 | −0.1 | +0.4 | +0.3 | ±0.0 | −0.1 | +0.1 | ±0.0 |
| Return | +0.7 | +0.8 | +2.9 | +4.4 | +0.7 | −0.7 | −0.8 | −0.8 |
| Forehand | +0.3 | +1.3 | −1.0 | +0.6 | +0.5 | +0.9 | +1.9 | +3.3 |
| Backhand | +0.2 | −0.7 | −1.3 | −1.8 | −0.1 | +0.2 | −0.9 | −0.8 |
| Slice | +0.3 | −1.2 | +0.2 | −0.7 | +0.3 | −2.8 | ±0.0 | −2.6 |
| Net | ±0.0 | −0.2 | −2.2 | −2.4 | +0.2 | +0.1 | −0.1 | +0.2 |
| Touch | +0.2 | −0.6 | ±0.0 | −0.5 | ±0.0 | −0.6 | −0.5 | −1.2 |
| All shots | +2.2 | −0.9 | +0.6 | +2.0 | +1.5 | −3.2 | +2.6 | +0.9 |
Set by set
| Set | Lindsay Davenport | Steffi Graf | Net, Lindsay | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | +2.5 | −2.9 | +5.4 | |
| 2 | −5.4 | +1.8 | −7.2 | |
| 3 | +4.9 | +2.1 | +2.8 |
Adaptation
First-serve direction mix set by set, with the share of points each direction won. The scores measure whether the server moved toward the directions that had been winning earlier in this match, set to set and every two to three service games, in points per 100 first serves. Read them as a habit, not a gain: across the tour, a direction's edge in early sets barely predicts the later ones. Whether the returner responded can't be told apart from noise within one match.
Lindsay Davenport serving
| Set | Wide | Body | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 44% 73% | – | 56% 50% |
| 2 | 53% 56% | 6% 50% | 41% 43% |
| 3 | 42% 40% | 4% 0% | 54% 54% |
Set to set −0.32 per 100 first serves in sets 2+
Within sets +0.40 per 100 first serves, every two to three service games
Steffi Graf serving
| Set | Wide | Body | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 46% 27% | 25% 33% | 29% 57% |
| 2 | 35% 75% | 17% 50% | 48% 91% |
| 3 | 34% 20% | 14% 0% | 52% 60% |
Set to set +2.36 per 100 first serves in sets 2+
Within sets +3.39 per 100 first serves, every two to three service games
Counterfactual: the best direction every time
If each shot had gone in the direction that is usually worth most for that stroke and position, this is how many more points each player would expect to win. It's an upper bound: the best direction isn't always on, and the chart can't see the ball's pace or position.
Lindsay Davenport
6.0 points left on the table across 275 shots 2.19 per 100 shots
- Rally, shots 5–8: slice to your backhand side hit BH crosscourt ×16; BH down the line rates higher · 0.44 pts
- Rally, shots 5–8: slice to your forehand side hit FH through the middle ×3; FH down the line rates higher · 0.37 pts
- Rally, shots 5–8: slice to your backhand side, you at net hit BH volley through the middle ×1; BH volley down the line rates higher · 0.30 pts
- Serve +1: mid-depth return to your backhand side hit BH crosscourt ×6; BH down the line rates higher · 0.30 pts
Steffi Graf
7.8 points left on the table across 280 shots 2.78 per 100 shots
- Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your backhand side hit BH slice down the line ×10; BH slice crosscourt rates higher · 0.87 pts
- Return of a 2nd serve, T, deuce court hit BH slice through the middle ×6; BH slice crosscourt rates higher · 0.46 pts
- Return +1: drive to your backhand side hit BH slice down the line ×4; BH slice crosscourt rates higher · 0.44 pts
- Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your backhand side hit BH slice through the middle ×6; BH slice crosscourt rates higher · 0.36 pts