Wimbledon · R32 · Grass · 26 Jun 1999
Boris Becker v Lleyton Hewitt
104–86 in points · Boris Becker won
Why it went the way it did
Boris Becker won 6.8 more points than Lleyton Hewitt relative to what the serve alone predicted. Lleyton Hewitt's biggest leaks: serve 2nd shot selection −5.7, serve 1st shot selection −3.4, touch shot selection −1.0.
Each shot moves its hitter's chance of winning the point. Those moves are split into direction choice, shot selection and execution, and summed here. Read both columns together: one player's gain is the other's loss.
| Shot | Boris Becker | Lleyton Hewitt | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dir | Sel | Exec | Total | Dir | Sel | Exec | Total | |
| Serve 1st | +0.3 | −1.5 | +2.9 | +1.7 | +0.2 | −3.4 | +0.8 | −2.3 |
| Serve 2nd | +0.2 | +1.8 | −3.2 | −1.2 | +0.1 | −5.7 | +3.7 | −1.8 |
| Return | −0.7 | +1.4 | +0.1 | +0.8 | +0.1 | +0.6 | +0.8 | +1.4 |
| Forehand | −0.1 | +0.6 | −2.2 | −1.6 | +0.3 | +0.3 | −0.2 | +0.3 |
| Backhand | −0.1 | −0.1 | ±0.0 | −0.2 | ±0.0 | +0.5 | +0.4 | +0.9 |
| Slice | ±0.0 | −0.1 | +0.1 | +0.1 | −0.1 | −0.4 | −0.1 | −0.5 |
| Net | +0.1 | +0.1 | +3.3 | +3.5 | +0.2 | ±0.0 | +0.1 | +0.2 |
| Touch | +0.2 | +0.3 | +0.6 | +1.1 | +0.1 | −1.0 | ±0.0 | −0.9 |
| All shots | ±0.0 | +2.5 | +1.6 | +4.1 | +1.0 | −9.1 | +5.5 | −2.6 |
Set by set
| Set | Boris Becker | Lleyton Hewitt | Net, Boris | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | +2.7 | −0.8 | +3.5 | |
| 2 | +0.3 | −2.6 | +2.9 | |
| 3 | +1.0 | +0.7 | +0.3 |
Adaptation
First-serve direction mix set by set, with the share of points each direction won. The scores measure whether the server moved toward the directions that had been winning earlier in this match, set to set and every two to three service games, in points per 100 first serves. Read them as a habit, not a gain: across the tour, a direction's edge in early sets barely predicts the later ones. Whether the returner responded can't be told apart from noise within one match.
Boris Becker serving
| Set | Wide | Body | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 38% 83% | 3% 100% | 59% 47% |
| 2 | 50% 77% | 8% 50% | 42% 82% |
| 3 | 54% 62% | 5% 100% | 41% 63% |
Set to set +1.62 per 100 first serves in sets 2+
Within sets +0.84 per 100 first serves, every two to three service games
Lleyton Hewitt serving
| Set | Wide | Body | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 44% 57% | – | 56% 22% |
| 2 | 46% 56% | 9% 100% | 46% 69% |
| 3 | 55% 62% | – | 45% 65% |
Set to set −1.32 per 100 first serves in sets 2+
Within sets −0.26 per 100 first serves, every two to three service games
Counterfactual: the best direction every time
If each shot had gone in the direction that is usually worth most for that stroke and position, this is how many more points each player would expect to win. It's an upper bound: the best direction isn't always on, and the chart can't see the ball's pace or position.
Boris Becker
7.9 points left on the table across 182 shots 4.36 per 100 shots
- Serve +1: short return to your backhand side, you at net hit BH volley through the middle ×3; BH volley crosscourt rates higher · 0.66 pts
- Serve +1: drive to your middle, you at net hit FH volley through the middle ×2; FH volley crosscourt rates higher · 0.44 pts
- Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your forehand side, you at net hit FH volley down the line ×3; FH volley crosscourt rates higher · 0.42 pts
- Return of a 1st serve, T, deuce court hit BH slice down the line ×4; BH slice through the middle rates higher · 0.40 pts
Lleyton Hewitt
6.7 points left on the table across 191 shots 3.49 per 100 shots
- Return of a 2nd serve, T, deuce court, server rushing the net hit BH through the middle ×9; BH crosscourt rates higher · 1.08 pts
- Return of a 2nd serve, T, ad court, server rushing the net hit FH through the middle ×3; FH crosscourt rates higher · 0.35 pts
- Return of a 2nd serve, wide, ad court, server rushing the net hit BH through the middle ×4; BH down the line rates higher · 0.32 pts
- Return of a 2nd serve, T, deuce court, server rushing the net hit BH slice through the middle ×2; BH slice crosscourt rates higher · 0.26 pts