Tour Finals · SF · Hard · 27 Nov 1999
Yevgeny Kafelnikov v Andre Agassi
64–70 in points · Andre Agassi won
Why it went the way it did
Andre Agassi won 3.0 more points than Yevgeny Kafelnikov relative to what the serve alone predicted. Yevgeny Kafelnikov's biggest leaks: return execution −2.6, slice shot selection −1.8, serve 2nd execution −1.8.
Each shot moves its hitter's chance of winning the point. Those moves are split into direction choice, shot selection and execution, and summed here. Read both columns together: one player's gain is the other's loss.
| Shot | Yevgeny Kafelnikov | Andre Agassi | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dir | Sel | Exec | Total | Dir | Sel | Exec | Total | |
| Serve 1st | +0.1 | −1.1 | −0.2 | −1.2 | +0.3 | −1.4 | +1.0 | −0.1 |
| Serve 2nd | ±0.0 | −0.7 | −1.8 | −2.5 | −0.1 | −0.7 | −1.1 | −1.8 |
| Return | +0.2 | +0.3 | −2.6 | −2.1 | +0.3 | ±0.0 | −0.9 | −0.7 |
| Forehand | −0.3 | +0.8 | −0.7 | −0.3 | +0.2 | +0.2 | ±0.0 | +0.5 |
| Backhand | +0.2 | +0.1 | −0.6 | −0.4 | ±0.0 | +0.3 | −1.7 | −1.4 |
| Slice | +0.3 | −1.8 | +0.6 | −0.9 | −0.1 | −0.4 | +0.2 | −0.3 |
| Net | ±0.0 | +0.1 | +0.3 | +0.4 | −0.1 | +0.1 | +0.3 | +0.3 |
| Touch | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | −0.1 | ±0.0 | −0.1 | −0.3 | +0.1 | −0.2 |
| Other | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | −0.1 | −0.1 | −0.2 |
| All shots | +0.6 | −2.3 | −5.1 | −6.9 | +0.5 | −2.3 | −2.2 | −3.9 |
Set by set
| Set | Yevgeny Kafelnikov | Andre Agassi | Net, Yevgeny | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | −4.3 | −1.4 | −2.9 | |
| 2 | −2.6 | −2.5 | −0.1 |
Adaptation
First-serve direction mix set by set, with the share of points each direction won. The scores measure whether the server moved toward the directions that had been winning earlier in this match, set to set and every two to three service games, in points per 100 first serves. Read them as a habit, not a gain: across the tour, a direction's edge in early sets barely predicts the later ones. Whether the returner responded can't be told apart from noise within one match.
Yevgeny Kafelnikov serving
| Set | Wide | Body | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 48% 71% | 7% 100% | 45% 62% |
| 2 | 39% 60% | 5% 50% | 55% 62% |
Set to set +2.71 per 100 first serves in sets 2+
Within sets −0.16 per 100 first serves, every two to three service games
Andre Agassi serving
| Set | Wide | Body | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 65% 94% | – | 35% 56% |
| 2 | 54% 59% | 2% 100% | 44% 61% |
Within sets +1.17 per 100 first serves, every two to three service games
Counterfactual: the best direction every time
If each shot had gone in the direction that is usually worth most for that stroke and position, this is how many more points each player would expect to win. It's an upper bound: the best direction isn't always on, and the chart can't see the ball's pace or position.
Yevgeny Kafelnikov
5.5 points left on the table across 241 shots 2.30 per 100 shots
- Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your forehand side hit FH through the middle ×5; FH crosscourt rates higher · 0.25 pts
- Serve +1: mid-depth return to your middle, you at net hit BH volley through the middle ×1; BH volley crosscourt rates higher · 0.25 pts
- Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your backhand side hit BH through the middle ×6; BH crosscourt rates higher · 0.23 pts
- Return of a 2nd serve, T, deuce court hit BH through the middle + approach ×1; BH down the line + approach rates higher · 0.22 pts
Andre Agassi
4.6 points left on the table across 240 shots 1.92 per 100 shots
- Return +1: drop shot to your forehand side, opponent at net hit FH through the middle ×1; FH down the line rates higher · 0.27 pts
- Serve +1: mid-depth return to your forehand side hit FH through the middle ×3; FH crosscourt rates higher · 0.27 pts
- Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your backhand side hit BH slice through the middle ×3; BH slice crosscourt rates higher · 0.22 pts
- Rally, shots 5–8: lob to your middle, you at net hit Smash through the middle ×1; Smash crosscourt rates higher · 0.19 pts