WTA Tour Championships · SF · Hard · 18 Nov 2000
Monica Seles v Elena Dementieva
71–58 in points · Monica Seles won
Why it went the way it did
Monica Seles won 6.9 more points than Elena Dementieva relative to what the serve alone predicted. Elena Dementieva's biggest leaks: return execution −4.7, backhand execution −2.9, forehand execution −2.3.
Each shot moves its hitter's chance of winning the point. Those moves are split into direction choice, shot selection and execution, and summed here. Read both columns together: one player's gain is the other's loss.
| Shot | Monica Seles | Elena Dementieva | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dir | Sel | Exec | Total | Dir | Sel | Exec | Total | |
| Serve 1st | +0.4 | −0.1 | −1.0 | −0.7 | +0.3 | −0.1 | ±0.0 | +0.3 |
| Serve 2nd | −0.1 | ±0.0 | +0.7 | +0.6 | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | +0.5 | +0.5 |
| Return | −0.1 | −0.4 | +1.7 | +1.2 | −0.1 | +0.4 | −4.7 | −4.4 |
| Forehand | +0.3 | +1.1 | −1.0 | +0.4 | −0.2 | +0.4 | −2.3 | −2.1 |
| Backhand | +0.8 | +0.3 | −2.6 | −1.6 | +0.1 | +0.3 | −2.9 | −2.5 |
| Slice | ±0.0 | −0.6 | +0.1 | −0.5 | ±0.0 | −0.6 | +0.9 | +0.3 |
| Net | −0.1 | −0.1 | −0.3 | −0.5 | −0.1 | +0.1 | +0.1 | +0.1 |
| Touch | ±0.0 | +0.1 | +0.4 | +0.5 | +0.1 | −0.1 | +0.5 | +0.5 |
| All shots | +1.3 | +0.3 | −2.0 | −0.4 | +0.1 | +0.4 | −7.9 | −7.3 |
Set by set
| Set | Monica Seles | Elena Dementieva | Net, Monica | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | +2.2 | −4.5 | +6.7 | |
| 2 | −2.6 | −2.8 | +0.2 |
Adaptation
First-serve direction mix set by set, with the share of points each direction won. The scores measure whether the server moved toward the directions that had been winning earlier in this match, set to set and every two to three service games, in points per 100 first serves. Read them as a habit, not a gain: across the tour, a direction's edge in early sets barely predicts the later ones. Whether the returner responded can't be told apart from noise within one match.
Monica Seles serving
| Set | Wide | Body | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 48% 75% | 4% 100% | 48% 67% |
| 2 | 44% 50% | – | 56% 80% |
Within sets −0.19 per 100 first serves, every two to three service games
Elena Dementieva serving
| Set | Wide | Body | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 64% 56% | 7% 0% | 29% 38% |
| 2 | 56% 68% | 15% 67% | 28% 55% |
Within sets −0.65 per 100 first serves, every two to three service games
Counterfactual: the best direction every time
If each shot had gone in the direction that is usually worth most for that stroke and position, this is how many more points each player would expect to win. It's an upper bound: the best direction isn't always on, and the chart can't see the ball's pace or position.
Monica Seles
5.4 points left on the table across 209 shots 2.57 per 100 shots
- Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your forehand side hit FH through the middle ×8; FH crosscourt rates higher · 0.43 pts
- Return of a 1st serve, wide, deuce court hit BH down the line ×3; BH inside-in rates higher · 0.39 pts
- Return of a 1st serve, body, ad court hit BH down the line ×4; BH crosscourt rates higher · 0.24 pts
- Return of a 1st serve, wide, deuce court hit BH crosscourt ×8; BH inside-in rates higher · 0.23 pts
Elena Dementieva
5.3 points left on the table across 217 shots 2.45 per 100 shots
- Serve +1: mid-depth return to your forehand side hit FH through the middle ×4; FH crosscourt rates higher · 0.27 pts
- Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your backhand side hit BH through the middle ×6; BH crosscourt rates higher · 0.26 pts
- Return +1: drive to your forehand side hit FH through the middle ×4; FH crosscourt rates higher · 0.25 pts
- Return of a 1st serve, T, deuce court hit BH down the line ×3; BH through the middle rates higher · 0.20 pts