Paris Masters · SF · Hard · 3 Nov 2001
Yevgeny Kafelnikov v Andreas Vinciguerra
67–53 in points · Yevgeny Kafelnikov won
Why it went the way it did
Yevgeny Kafelnikov won 7.3 more points than Andreas Vinciguerra relative to what the serve alone predicted. Andreas Vinciguerra's biggest leaks: forehand execution −2.9, slice shot selection −2.3, slice execution −1.1.
Each shot moves its hitter's chance of winning the point. Those moves are split into direction choice, shot selection and execution, and summed here. Read both columns together: one player's gain is the other's loss.
| Shot | Yevgeny Kafelnikov | Andreas Vinciguerra | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dir | Sel | Exec | Total | Dir | Sel | Exec | Total | |
| Serve 1st | +0.3 | +0.2 | ±0.0 | +0.5 | +0.1 | −0.1 | −0.6 | −0.6 |
| Serve 2nd | +0.1 | −0.1 | +0.2 | +0.2 | −0.1 | −0.1 | +0.2 | ±0.0 |
| Return | +0.3 | +0.1 | −2.5 | −2.1 | −0.4 | +0.3 | −0.5 | −0.5 |
| Forehand | +1.0 | +2.1 | +1.2 | +4.3 | +0.3 | +1.7 | −2.9 | −0.8 |
| Backhand | +0.2 | +0.3 | −0.9 | −0.5 | −0.3 | +1.3 | −0.8 | +0.2 |
| Slice | −0.1 | −1.7 | ±0.0 | −1.8 | −0.1 | −2.3 | −1.1 | −3.5 |
| Net | +0.9 | +0.1 | +0.6 | +1.6 | ±0.0 | −0.1 | ±0.0 | −0.2 |
| Touch | −0.1 | −0.2 | −0.1 | −0.5 | ±0.0 | −0.2 | ±0.0 | −0.3 |
| All shots | +2.4 | +0.8 | −1.5 | +1.7 | −0.5 | +0.6 | −5.7 | −5.6 |
Set by set
| Set | Yevgeny Kafelnikov | Andreas Vinciguerra | Net, Yevgeny | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | +2.4 | −4.6 | +7.0 | |
| 2 | −0.7 | −1.0 | +0.3 |
Adaptation
First-serve direction mix set by set, with the share of points each direction won. The scores measure whether the server moved toward the directions that had been winning earlier in this match, set to set and every two to three service games, in points per 100 first serves. Read them as a habit, not a gain: across the tour, a direction's edge in early sets barely predicts the later ones. Whether the returner responded can't be told apart from noise within one match.
Yevgeny Kafelnikov serving
| Set | Wide | Body | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 50% 64% | 5% 100% | 45% 90% |
| 2 | 59% 73% | – | 41% 60% |
Within sets +0.96 per 100 first serves, every two to three service games
Andreas Vinciguerra serving
| Set | Wide | Body | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 27% 50% | 14% 100% | 59% 31% |
| 2 | 51% 60% | 5% 50% | 44% 76% |
Within sets −0.48 per 100 first serves, every two to three service games
Counterfactual: the best direction every time
If each shot had gone in the direction that is usually worth most for that stroke and position, this is how many more points each player would expect to win. It's an upper bound: the best direction isn't always on, and the chart can't see the ball's pace or position.
Yevgeny Kafelnikov
4.2 points left on the table across 238 shots 1.75 per 100 shots
- Return of a 2nd serve, T, ad court hit FH through the middle ×2; FH inside-out rates higher · 0.18 pts
- Long rally, 9+: volley to your backhand side, opponent at net hit BH lob through the middle ×1; BH lob crosscourt rates higher · 0.18 pts
- Return +1: drive to your backhand side hit BH through the middle ×4; BH crosscourt rates higher · 0.16 pts
- Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your backhand side hit BH through the middle ×4; BH crosscourt rates higher · 0.15 pts
Andreas Vinciguerra
7.7 points left on the table across 233 shots 3.30 per 100 shots
- Return of a 1st serve, T, deuce court hit FH down the line ×4; FH inside-out rates higher · 0.66 pts
- Return of a 2nd serve, T, ad court hit BH through the middle ×4; BH inside-in rates higher · 0.34 pts
- Return of a 1st serve, wide, ad court hit FH through the middle ×3; FH inside-out rates higher · 0.31 pts
- Long rally, 9+: drive to your backhand side, you at net hit BH volley through the middle ×1; BH volley crosscourt rates higher · 0.24 pts