Rotterdam · SF · Hard · 21 Feb 2004
Tim Henman v Lleyton Hewitt
41–62 in points · Lleyton Hewitt won
Why it went the way it did
Lleyton Hewitt won 12.3 more points than Tim Henman relative to what the serve alone predicted. Tim Henman's biggest leaks: forehand execution −3.2, serve 1st execution −1.9, backhand execution −1.6.
Each shot moves its hitter's chance of winning the point. Those moves are split into direction choice, shot selection and execution, and summed here. Read both columns together: one player's gain is the other's loss.
| Shot | Tim Henman | Lleyton Hewitt | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dir | Sel | Exec | Total | Dir | Sel | Exec | Total | |
| Serve 1st | +0.1 | +0.4 | −1.9 | −1.4 | +0.2 | −0.2 | −0.3 | −0.2 |
| Serve 2nd | ±0.0 | +0.1 | −0.1 | ±0.0 | +0.1 | −0.1 | −0.1 | −0.1 |
| Return | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | +0.1 | +0.1 | +0.4 | +0.5 | +3.3 | +4.2 |
| Forehand | +0.3 | +3.8 | −3.2 | +0.9 | +0.4 | +1.4 | +1.4 | +3.2 |
| Backhand | ±0.0 | +0.1 | −1.6 | −1.5 | +0.5 | +1.0 | +0.5 | +2.0 |
| Slice | +0.3 | −1.2 | −0.8 | −1.8 | +0.1 | −0.6 | −0.3 | −0.8 |
| Net | −0.1 | −0.2 | −1.2 | −1.5 | +0.3 | +0.1 | −0.4 | +0.1 |
| Touch | ±0.0 | −0.6 | +0.4 | −0.2 | −0.1 | −0.8 | −0.4 | −1.2 |
| All shots | +0.6 | +2.4 | −8.3 | −5.3 | +2.0 | +1.3 | +3.7 | +7.0 |
Set by set
| Set | Tim Henman | Lleyton Hewitt | Net, Tim | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | −4.4 | +2.3 | −6.7 | |
| 2 | −0.9 | +4.8 | −5.6 |
Adaptation
First-serve direction mix set by set, with the share of points each direction won. The scores measure whether the server moved toward the directions that had been winning earlier in this match, set to set and every two to three service games, in points per 100 first serves. Read them as a habit, not a gain: across the tour, a direction's edge in early sets barely predicts the later ones. Whether the returner responded can't be told apart from noise within one match.
Tim Henman serving
| Set | Wide | Body | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 53% 41% | 3% 100% | 44% 64% |
| 2 | 38% 30% | 12% 100% | 50% 46% |
Set to set +1.54 per 100 first serves in sets 2+
Within sets +1.11 per 100 first serves, every two to three service games
Lleyton Hewitt serving
| Set | Wide | Body | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 45% 67% | – | 55% 91% |
| 2 | 44% 73% | – | 56% 64% |
Within sets +0.38 per 100 first serves, every two to three service games
Counterfactual: the best direction every time
If each shot had gone in the direction that is usually worth most for that stroke and position, this is how many more points each player would expect to win. It's an upper bound: the best direction isn't always on, and the chart can't see the ball's pace or position.
Tim Henman
5.1 points left on the table across 157 shots 3.27 per 100 shots
- Serve +1: short return to your backhand side, you at net hit FH volley through the middle ×1; FH volley inside-in rates higher · 0.32 pts
- Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your backhand side, you at net hit BH volley through the middle ×1; BH volley crosscourt rates higher · 0.26 pts
- Return of a 2nd serve, wide, deuce court hit FH through the middle + approach ×2; FH down the line + approach rates higher · 0.26 pts
- Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your backhand side, you at net hit BH volley down the line ×2; BH volley crosscourt rates higher · 0.24 pts
Lleyton Hewitt
3.3 points left on the table across 162 shots 2.07 per 100 shots
- Return of a 2nd serve, T, ad court hit FH through the middle ×2; FH inside-out rates higher · 0.18 pts
- Long rally, 9+: volley to your backhand side, opponent at net hit BH lob through the middle ×1; BH lob crosscourt rates higher · 0.18 pts
- Return +1: volley to your middle, opponent at net hit FH through the middle ×1; FH crosscourt rates higher · 0.17 pts
- Return of a 2nd serve, body, deuce court, server rushing the net hit BH through the middle ×1; BH crosscourt rates higher · 0.16 pts