Australian Open · SF · Hard · 27 Jan 2005
Serena Williams v Maria Sharapova
115–110 in points · Serena Williams won
Why it went the way it did
Serena Williams won 2.6 more points than Maria Sharapova relative to what the serve alone predicted. Maria Sharapova's biggest leaks: forehand execution −4.4, slice execution −1.0, touch shot selection −1.0.
Each shot moves its hitter's chance of winning the point. Those moves are split into direction choice, shot selection and execution, and summed here. Read both columns together: one player's gain is the other's loss.
| Shot | Serena Williams | Maria Sharapova | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dir | Sel | Exec | Total | Dir | Sel | Exec | Total | |
| Serve 1st | +0.9 | ±0.0 | +0.5 | +1.4 | +0.7 | ±0.0 | +1.5 | +2.2 |
| Serve 2nd | +0.1 | ±0.0 | +0.9 | +1.0 | +0.1 | ±0.0 | +0.1 | +0.2 |
| Return | +0.7 | +0.6 | +3.3 | +4.5 | +0.1 | −0.2 | +0.7 | +0.6 |
| Forehand | +1.0 | +3.3 | −3.7 | +0.6 | +1.1 | +1.6 | −4.4 | −1.7 |
| Backhand | +0.8 | +1.0 | −3.4 | −1.6 | +0.7 | +1.6 | +0.6 | +2.9 |
| Slice | ±0.0 | −0.8 | −1.5 | −2.3 | −0.2 | −0.8 | −1.0 | −2.0 |
| Net | ±0.0 | +0.2 | +0.9 | +1.1 | +0.1 | −0.1 | −0.9 | −0.9 |
| Touch | +0.1 | −0.4 | −1.2 | −1.4 | +0.4 | −1.0 | +0.1 | −0.5 |
| All shots | +3.6 | +3.9 | −4.1 | +3.3 | +3.0 | +1.0 | −3.2 | +0.8 |
Set by set
| Set | Serena Williams | Maria Sharapova | Net, Serena | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | −4.0 | −0.1 | −3.9 | |
| 2 | +1.4 | +0.1 | +1.3 | |
| 3 | +5.9 | +0.7 | +5.2 |
Adaptation
First-serve direction mix set by set, with the share of points each direction won. The scores measure whether the server moved toward the directions that had been winning earlier in this match, set to set and every two to three service games, in points per 100 first serves. Read them as a habit, not a gain: across the tour, a direction's edge in early sets barely predicts the later ones. Whether the returner responded can't be told apart from noise within one match.
Serena Williams serving
| Set | Wide | Body | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 80% 50% | – | 20% 50% |
| 2 | 51% 58% | 4% 0% | 45% 65% |
| 3 | 59% 63% | – | 41% 65% |
Set to set +0.27 per 100 first serves in sets 2+
Within sets −0.12 per 100 first serves, every two to three service games
Maria Sharapova serving
| Set | Wide | Body | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 31% 67% | 10% 67% | 59% 65% |
| 2 | 46% 67% | – | 54% 48% |
| 3 | 44% 30% | 7% 67% | 49% 68% |
Set to set +1.32 per 100 first serves in sets 2+
Within sets −0.20 per 100 first serves, every two to three service games
Counterfactual: the best direction every time
If each shot had gone in the direction that is usually worth most for that stroke and position, this is how many more points each player would expect to win. It's an upper bound: the best direction isn't always on, and the chart can't see the ball's pace or position.
Serena Williams
8.3 points left on the table across 420 shots 1.98 per 100 shots
- Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your forehand side hit FH through the middle ×12; FH crosscourt rates higher · 0.65 pts
- Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your backhand side hit BH through the middle ×12; BH crosscourt rates higher · 0.52 pts
- Return +1: drive to your backhand side hit BH through the middle ×8; BH crosscourt rates higher · 0.38 pts
- Return of a 2nd serve, T, ad court hit FH through the middle ×4; FH inside-in rates higher · 0.33 pts
Maria Sharapova
8.8 points left on the table across 407 shots 2.16 per 100 shots
- Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your backhand side, opponent at net hit BH through the middle ×3; BH crosscourt rates higher · 0.37 pts
- Return of a 2nd serve, wide, deuce court hit FH through the middle ×3; FH inside-out rates higher · 0.34 pts
- Return of a 1st serve, wide, deuce court hit FH down the line ×5; FH crosscourt rates higher · 0.34 pts
- Return +1: drive to your backhand side, opponent at net hit BH through the middle ×3; BH crosscourt rates higher · 0.33 pts