Roland Garros · F · Clay · 4 Jun 2005
Mary Pierce v Justine Henin
32–59 in points · Justine Henin won
Why it went the way it did
Justine Henin won 13.8 more points than Mary Pierce relative to what the serve alone predicted. Mary Pierce's biggest leaks: forehand execution −6.3, net execution −2.6, serve 2nd execution −1.7.
Each shot moves its hitter's chance of winning the point. Those moves are split into direction choice, shot selection and execution, and summed here. Read both columns together: one player's gain is the other's loss.
| Shot | Mary Pierce | Justine Henin | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dir | Sel | Exec | Total | Dir | Sel | Exec | Total | |
| Serve 1st | +0.2 | ±0.0 | +0.7 | +0.8 | +0.1 | ±0.0 | +0.5 | +0.6 |
| Serve 2nd | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | −1.7 | −1.7 | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | −0.2 | −0.2 |
| Return | −0.1 | ±0.0 | −0.6 | −0.7 | +0.2 | +0.1 | +1.0 | +1.3 |
| Forehand | ±0.0 | +1.0 | −6.3 | −5.3 | ±0.0 | +1.2 | −0.9 | +0.3 |
| Backhand | −0.1 | −0.1 | −1.1 | −1.2 | +0.1 | −0.1 | +0.6 | +0.6 |
| Slice | +0.1 | −0.8 | ±0.0 | −0.7 | −0.1 | −1.3 | +0.3 | −1.1 |
| Net | +0.2 | +0.5 | −2.6 | −2.0 | −0.1 | +0.2 | +0.4 | +0.5 |
| Touch | −0.2 | −0.8 | −0.3 | −1.3 | ±0.0 | −0.7 | +0.3 | −0.4 |
| Other | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | +0.1 | +0.1 |
| All shots | ±0.0 | −0.3 | −11.9 | −12.2 | +0.1 | −0.5 | +2.0 | +1.6 |
Set by set
| Set | Mary Pierce | Justine Henin | Net, Mary | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | −5.3 | +3.1 | −8.5 | |
| 2 | −6.9 | −1.5 | −5.3 |
Adaptation
First-serve direction mix set by set, with the share of points each direction won. The scores measure whether the server moved toward the directions that had been winning earlier in this match, set to set and every two to three service games, in points per 100 first serves. Read them as a habit, not a gain: across the tour, a direction's edge in early sets barely predicts the later ones. Whether the returner responded can't be told apart from noise within one match.
Mary Pierce serving
| Set | Wide | Body | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 45% 20% | 9% 100% | 45% 40% |
| 2 | 42% 36% | 19% 40% | 38% 60% |
Within sets −1.19 per 100 first serves, every two to three service games
Justine Henin serving
| Set | Wide | Body | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 14% 100% | 29% 75% | 57% 88% |
| 2 | 14% 50% | 11% 33% | 75% 71% |
Within sets +0.12 per 100 first serves, every two to three service games
Counterfactual: the best direction every time
If each shot had gone in the direction that is usually worth most for that stroke and position, this is how many more points each player would expect to win. It's an upper bound: the best direction isn't always on, and the chart can't see the ball's pace or position.
Mary Pierce
3.8 points left on the table across 140 shots 2.69 per 100 shots
- Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your backhand side, opponent at net, you at net hit BH volley down the line ×1; BH volley crosscourt rates higher · 0.21 pts
- Serve +1: mid-depth return to your forehand side hit FH through the middle ×3; FH crosscourt rates higher · 0.20 pts
- Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your middle, you at net hit BH volley through the middle ×1; BH volley crosscourt rates higher · 0.20 pts
- Serve +1: mid-depth return to your middle hit FH through the middle ×2; FH crosscourt rates higher · 0.17 pts
Justine Henin
3.4 points left on the table across 131 shots 2.62 per 100 shots
- Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your forehand side hit FH through the middle ×5; FH crosscourt rates higher · 0.27 pts
- Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your forehand side, you at net hit FH volley through the middle ×1; FH volley crosscourt rates higher · 0.25 pts
- Return +1: drive to your middle, opponent at net hit FH through the middle ×1; FH crosscourt rates higher · 0.15 pts
- Serve +1: deep return to your forehand side hit FH through the middle ×3; FH crosscourt rates higher · 0.14 pts