Wimbledon · QF · Grass · 28 Jun 2005
Amelie Mauresmo v Anastasia Myskina
64–46 in points · Amelie Mauresmo won
Why it went the way it did
Amelie Mauresmo won 9.9 more points than Anastasia Myskina relative to what the serve alone predicted. Anastasia Myskina's biggest leaks: forehand execution −3.7, backhand execution −2.3, serve 1st execution −1.5.
Each shot moves its hitter's chance of winning the point. Those moves are split into direction choice, shot selection and execution, and summed here. Read both columns together: one player's gain is the other's loss.
| Shot | Amelie Mauresmo | Anastasia Myskina | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dir | Sel | Exec | Total | Dir | Sel | Exec | Total | |
| Serve 1st | +0.4 | +1.2 | −1.9 | −0.3 | +0.5 | −0.2 | −1.5 | −1.2 |
| Serve 2nd | +0.1 | ±0.0 | −0.1 | ±0.0 | +0.1 | ±0.0 | +2.1 | +2.2 |
| Return | +0.1 | −0.7 | +1.4 | +0.7 | −0.4 | +0.2 | +1.1 | +0.9 |
| Forehand | +0.2 | +1.9 | +1.9 | +3.9 | +0.2 | +0.9 | −3.7 | −2.7 |
| Backhand | −0.1 | +0.4 | ±0.0 | +0.3 | +0.1 | +0.3 | −2.3 | −1.9 |
| Slice | +0.2 | −4.0 | +0.7 | −3.1 | +0.1 | −1.0 | +0.1 | −0.8 |
| Net | +0.6 | +0.5 | +2.7 | +3.8 | −0.2 | −0.3 | −0.6 | −1.2 |
| Touch | −0.1 | ±0.0 | −0.1 | −0.2 | −0.2 | −0.5 | +0.4 | −0.2 |
| All shots | +1.4 | −0.9 | +4.6 | +5.1 | +0.2 | −0.7 | −4.3 | −4.8 |
Set by set
| Set | Amelie Mauresmo | Anastasia Myskina | Net, Amelie | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | +2.5 | −2.3 | +4.8 | |
| 2 | +2.6 | −2.5 | +5.0 |
Adaptation
First-serve direction mix set by set, with the share of points each direction won. The scores measure whether the server moved toward the directions that had been winning earlier in this match, set to set and every two to three service games, in points per 100 first serves. Read them as a habit, not a gain: across the tour, a direction's edge in early sets barely predicts the later ones. Whether the returner responded can't be told apart from noise within one match.
Amelie Mauresmo serving
| Set | Wide | Body | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 54% 71% | – | 46% 67% |
| 2 | 38% 56% | 4% 100% | 58% 79% |
Within sets +0.29 per 100 first serves, every two to three service games
Anastasia Myskina serving
| Set | Wide | Body | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 58% 50% | 4% 100% | 38% 44% |
| 2 | 50% 67% | 3% 100% | 47% 35% |
Within sets +0.01 per 100 first serves, every two to three service games
Counterfactual: the best direction every time
If each shot had gone in the direction that is usually worth most for that stroke and position, this is how many more points each player would expect to win. It's an upper bound: the best direction isn't always on, and the chart can't see the ball's pace or position.
Amelie Mauresmo
5.7 points left on the table across 211 shots 2.68 per 100 shots
- Serve +1: short return to your middle, you at net hit FH volley through the middle ×2; FH volley down the line rates higher · 0.45 pts
- Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your forehand side hit FH through the middle ×6; FH crosscourt rates higher · 0.33 pts
- Return +1: drive to your forehand side hit FH through the middle ×4; FH crosscourt rates higher · 0.25 pts
- Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your forehand side, you at net hit FH volley through the middle ×1; FH volley crosscourt rates higher · 0.25 pts
Anastasia Myskina
6.8 points left on the table across 218 shots 3.12 per 100 shots
- Rally, shots 5–8: slice to your forehand side, you at net hit FH volley through the middle ×1; FH volley crosscourt rates higher · 0.34 pts
- Return of a 1st serve, wide, ad court, server rushing the net hit BH through the middle ×5; BH crosscourt rates higher · 0.31 pts
- Return of a 1st serve, T, ad court, server rushing the net hit FH through the middle ×3; FH down the line rates higher · 0.31 pts
- Rally, shots 5–8: slice to your backhand side, opponent at net, you at net hit BH volley through the middle ×1; BH volley down the line rates higher · 0.24 pts