Wimbledon · F · Grass · 9 Jul 2006
Amelie Mauresmo v Justine Henin
92–88 in points · Amelie Mauresmo won
Why it went the way it did
Amelie Mauresmo won 2.2 more points than Justine Henin relative to what the serve alone predicted. Justine Henin's biggest leaks: forehand execution −7.3, serve 1st execution −3.0, slice shot selection −1.8.
Each shot moves its hitter's chance of winning the point. Those moves are split into direction choice, shot selection and execution, and summed here. Read both columns together: one player's gain is the other's loss.
| Shot | Amelie Mauresmo | Justine Henin | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dir | Sel | Exec | Total | Dir | Sel | Exec | Total | |
| Serve 1st | +0.4 | +1.5 | −1.1 | +0.8 | +0.2 | +0.6 | −3.0 | −2.1 |
| Serve 2nd | +0.1 | ±0.0 | +2.9 | +3.1 | +0.2 | ±0.0 | +1.6 | +1.8 |
| Return | ±0.0 | −3.0 | −2.1 | −5.2 | −0.8 | −0.3 | −0.6 | −1.7 |
| Forehand | −0.9 | +1.4 | +0.4 | +1.0 | −0.5 | +1.7 | −7.3 | −6.1 |
| Backhand | −1.2 | +0.5 | −0.7 | −1.4 | −0.3 | +0.4 | −0.6 | −0.5 |
| Slice | −0.5 | −3.5 | +0.3 | −3.7 | −0.4 | −1.8 | −0.6 | −2.8 |
| Net | −0.6 | −0.6 | −1.3 | −2.5 | −1.2 | −0.2 | +1.7 | +0.3 |
| Touch | ±0.0 | −0.5 | −0.5 | −1.0 | −0.1 | −0.1 | +0.2 | +0.1 |
| All shots | −2.5 | −4.2 | −2.2 | −8.9 | −2.8 | +0.3 | −8.6 | −11.1 |
Set by set
| Set | Amelie Mauresmo | Justine Henin | Net, Amelie | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | −4.3 | +1.8 | −6.1 | |
| 2 | −2.6 | −7.6 | +4.9 | |
| 3 | −1.9 | −5.2 | +3.4 |
Adaptation
First-serve direction mix set by set, with the share of points each direction won. The scores measure whether the server moved toward the directions that had been winning earlier in this match, set to set and every two to three service games, in points per 100 first serves. Read them as a habit, not a gain: across the tour, a direction's edge in early sets barely predicts the later ones. Whether the returner responded can't be told apart from noise within one match.
Amelie Mauresmo serving
| Set | Wide | Body | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 63% 47% | 3% 0% | 33% 60% |
| 2 | 42% 43% | 12% 75% | 45% 80% |
| 3 | 52% 85% | 20% 60% | 28% 71% |
Set to set +0.18 per 100 first serves in sets 2+
Within sets −0.04 per 100 first serves, every two to three service games
Justine Henin serving
| Set | Wide | Body | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 39% 78% | 17% 75% | 43% 70% |
| 2 | 45% 71% | 13% 40% | 42% 31% |
| 3 | 50% 53% | 10% 100% | 40% 67% |
Set to set +0.11 per 100 first serves in sets 2+
Within sets +1.45 per 100 first serves, every two to three service games
Counterfactual: the best direction every time
If each shot had gone in the direction that is usually worth most for that stroke and position, this is how many more points each player would expect to win. It's an upper bound: the best direction isn't always on, and the chart can't see the ball's pace or position.
Amelie Mauresmo
12.7 points left on the table across 257 shots 4.95 per 100 shots
- Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your middle hit FH through the middle ×11; FH crosscourt rates higher · 0.77 pts
- Serve +1: short return to your middle, you at net hit FH volley through the middle ×2; FH volley down the line rates higher · 0.45 pts
- Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your backhand side hit BH slice through the middle ×7; BH slice crosscourt rates higher · 0.42 pts
- Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your backhand side, you at net hit BH volley through the middle ×2; BH volley crosscourt rates higher · 0.42 pts
Justine Henin
11.9 points left on the table across 259 shots 4.58 per 100 shots
- Rally, shots 5–8: slice to your forehand side, you at net hit FH volley through the middle ×2; FH volley crosscourt rates higher · 0.67 pts
- Serve +1: short return to your middle hit BH slice through the middle + approach ×3; BH slice crosscourt + approach rates higher · 0.64 pts
- Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your forehand side, you at net hit FH volley through the middle ×2; FH volley crosscourt rates higher · 0.50 pts
- Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your middle hit FH through the middle ×6; FH crosscourt rates higher · 0.42 pts