WTA Tour Championships · RR · Hard · 5 Nov 2007
Justine Henin v Anna Chakvetadze
68–48 in points · Justine Henin won
Why it went the way it did
Justine Henin won 9.9 more points than Anna Chakvetadze relative to what the serve alone predicted. Anna Chakvetadze's biggest leaks: backhand execution −4.5, forehand execution −4.2, return execution −1.4.
Each shot moves its hitter's chance of winning the point. Those moves are split into direction choice, shot selection and execution, and summed here. Read both columns together: one player's gain is the other's loss.
| Shot | Justine Henin | Anna Chakvetadze | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dir | Sel | Exec | Total | Dir | Sel | Exec | Total | |
| Serve 1st | +0.3 | ±0.0 | −1.8 | −1.5 | +0.1 | ±0.0 | +0.8 | +1.0 |
| Serve 2nd | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | −0.5 | −0.5 | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | −0.2 | −0.2 |
| Return | −0.3 | +0.1 | +0.9 | +0.6 | +0.1 | −0.4 | −1.4 | −1.6 |
| Forehand | ±0.0 | +1.0 | −1.7 | −0.7 | +0.2 | +0.6 | −4.2 | −3.4 |
| Backhand | ±0.0 | +0.6 | +1.6 | +2.1 | +0.7 | −0.5 | −4.5 | −4.4 |
| Slice | ±0.0 | −2.7 | +0.2 | −2.5 | −0.1 | −1.2 | −1.3 | −2.6 |
| Net | −0.1 | +0.1 | +1.7 | +1.8 | ±0.0 | +0.1 | +1.1 | +1.2 |
| Touch | ±0.0 | −0.5 | +0.4 | −0.1 | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | −0.7 | −0.6 |
| All shots | −0.1 | −1.5 | +0.8 | −0.7 | +1.1 | −1.4 | −10.3 | −10.6 |
Set by set
| Set | Justine Henin | Anna Chakvetadze | Net, Justine | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | −0.1 | −5.7 | +5.7 | |
| 2 | −0.7 | −4.9 | +4.3 |
Adaptation
First-serve direction mix set by set, with the share of points each direction won. The scores measure whether the server moved toward the directions that had been winning earlier in this match, set to set and every two to three service games, in points per 100 first serves. Read them as a habit, not a gain: across the tour, a direction's edge in early sets barely predicts the later ones. Whether the returner responded can't be told apart from noise within one match.
Justine Henin serving
| Set | Wide | Body | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 18% 100% | 5% 0% | 77% 71% |
| 2 | 16% 67% | – | 84% 71% |
Within sets +0.26 per 100 first serves, every two to three service games
Anna Chakvetadze serving
| Set | Wide | Body | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 38% 17% | 25% 50% | 38% 67% |
| 2 | 41% 53% | 10% 50% | 49% 65% |
Within sets +0.62 per 100 first serves, every two to three service games
Counterfactual: the best direction every time
If each shot had gone in the direction that is usually worth most for that stroke and position, this is how many more points each player would expect to win. It's an upper bound: the best direction isn't always on, and the chart can't see the ball's pace or position.
Justine Henin
5.9 points left on the table across 194 shots 3.02 per 100 shots
- Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your forehand side hit FH through the middle ×8; FH crosscourt rates higher · 0.43 pts
- Return of a 2nd serve, T, ad court hit FH through the middle ×3; FH inside-in rates higher · 0.25 pts
- Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your middle, you at net hit FH volley through the middle ×1; FH volley crosscourt rates higher · 0.24 pts
- Return +1: drive to your backhand side hit BH through the middle ×5; BH crosscourt rates higher · 0.24 pts
Anna Chakvetadze
4.1 points left on the table across 209 shots 1.94 per 100 shots
- Rally, shots 5–8: lob to your middle, you at net hit Smash through the middle ×1; Smash crosscourt rates higher · 0.25 pts
- Return +1: drive to your forehand side hit FH slice down the line ×2; FH slice crosscourt rates higher · 0.24 pts
- Return of a 2nd serve, body, deuce court hit BH through the middle ×5; BH crosscourt rates higher · 0.23 pts
- Return of a 1st serve, wide, deuce court hit FH slice down the line ×2; FH slice crosscourt rates higher · 0.21 pts