WTA Tour Championships · SF · Hard · 10 Nov 2007
Ana Ivanovic v Justine Henin
63–75 in points · Justine Henin won
Why it went the way it did
Justine Henin won 4.2 more points than Ana Ivanovic relative to what the serve alone predicted. Ana Ivanovic's biggest leaks: forehand execution −4.2, slice shot selection −3.1, backhand execution −3.0.
Each shot moves its hitter's chance of winning the point. Those moves are split into direction choice, shot selection and execution, and summed here. Read both columns together: one player's gain is the other's loss.
| Shot | Ana Ivanovic | Justine Henin | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dir | Sel | Exec | Total | Dir | Sel | Exec | Total | |
| Serve 1st | +0.5 | ±0.0 | −0.6 | −0.1 | +0.4 | ±0.0 | −3.3 | −2.8 |
| Serve 2nd | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | −1.0 | −1.1 | −0.1 | ±0.0 | −1.9 | −2.0 |
| Return | +0.2 | −0.4 | −1.5 | −1.7 | +0.5 | ±0.0 | −1.3 | −0.9 |
| Forehand | +0.3 | +1.1 | −4.2 | −2.8 | +0.5 | +1.7 | −3.4 | −1.2 |
| Backhand | −0.1 | +1.2 | −3.0 | −2.0 | −0.3 | −0.1 | +0.5 | +0.1 |
| Slice | −0.1 | −3.1 | −0.5 | −3.7 | +0.4 | −2.4 | ±0.0 | −2.0 |
| Net | −0.1 | +0.1 | −0.6 | −0.6 | +0.6 | ±0.0 | +0.6 | +1.1 |
| Touch | −0.2 | −0.5 | +0.8 | +0.2 | −0.1 | ±0.0 | +0.1 | +0.1 |
| All shots | +0.4 | −1.5 | −10.6 | −11.8 | +1.8 | −0.8 | −8.7 | −7.6 |
Set by set
| Set | Ana Ivanovic | Justine Henin | Net, Ana | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | −5.6 | −3.6 | −2.0 | |
| 2 | −6.2 | −4.0 | −2.2 |
Adaptation
First-serve direction mix set by set, with the share of points each direction won. The scores measure whether the server moved toward the directions that had been winning earlier in this match, set to set and every two to three service games, in points per 100 first serves. Read them as a habit, not a gain: across the tour, a direction's edge in early sets barely predicts the later ones. Whether the returner responded can't be told apart from noise within one match.
Ana Ivanovic serving
| Set | Wide | Body | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 64% 31% | – | 36% 67% |
| 2 | 55% 44% | 3% 0% | 41% 50% |
Within sets −2.09 per 100 first serves, every two to three service games
Justine Henin serving
| Set | Wide | Body | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 32% 56% | 6% 67% | 62% 52% |
| 2 | 26% 56% | 6% 50% | 68% 52% |
Set to set +0.32 per 100 first serves in sets 2+
Within sets −0.48 per 100 first serves, every two to three service games
Counterfactual: the best direction every time
If each shot had gone in the direction that is usually worth most for that stroke and position, this is how many more points each player would expect to win. It's an upper bound: the best direction isn't always on, and the chart can't see the ball's pace or position.
Ana Ivanovic
6.3 points left on the table across 244 shots 2.60 per 100 shots
- Return of a 2nd serve, wide, ad court hit BH through the middle ×6; BH crosscourt rates higher · 0.29 pts
- Return +1: drive to your backhand side hit BH through the middle ×6; BH crosscourt rates higher · 0.29 pts
- Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your middle hit FH through the middle ×4; FH crosscourt rates higher · 0.28 pts
- Serve +1: short return to your forehand side hit FH slice through the middle ×1; FH slice crosscourt rates higher · 0.27 pts
Justine Henin
5.0 points left on the table across 231 shots 2.16 per 100 shots
- Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your backhand side hit BH through the middle ×8; BH crosscourt rates higher · 0.34 pts
- Return of a 2nd serve, wide, deuce court hit FH through the middle ×2; FH inside-out rates higher · 0.23 pts
- Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your middle hit FH through the middle ×3; FH crosscourt rates higher · 0.21 pts
- Serve +1: short return to your middle hit FH through the middle ×2; FH down the line rates higher · 0.19 pts