Wimbledon · R16 · Grass · 30 Jun 2008

Richard Gasquet v Andy Murray

183–192 in points · Andy Murray won

Why it went the way it did

Andy Murray won 4.0 more points than Richard Gasquet relative to what the serve alone predicted. Richard Gasquet's biggest leaks: slice shot selection −5.0, forehand execution −2.4, return shot selection −1.9.

Each shot moves its hitter's chance of winning the point. Those moves are split into direction choice, shot selection and execution, and summed here. Read both columns together: one player's gain is the other's loss.

Shot	Richard Gasquet				Andy Murray
Shot	Dir	Sel	Exec	Total	Dir	Sel	Exec	Total
Serve 1st	+0.9	+0.5	−1.6	−0.3	+0.3	−0.8	−2.9	−3.4
Serve 2nd	−0.3	−1.0	+1.0	−0.3	+0.1	−0.5	+0.3	−0.1
Return	+0.2	−1.9	+2.0	+0.3	−0.3	−1.8	+7.8	+5.6
Forehand	±0.0	+2.3	−2.4	−0.2	+0.4	+1.9	+1.2	+3.5
Backhand	+0.4	+0.3	−0.1	+0.5	±0.0	+1.1	−1.0	+0.1
Slice	+0.1	−5.0	+0.9	−4.0	−0.1	−4.1	+1.2	−3.0
Net	−0.6	+0.6	+1.3	+1.3	−0.5	−0.3	−0.3	−1.2
Touch	+0.1	−1.4	+0.7	−0.6	+0.6	−1.6	+0.1	−0.9
All shots	+0.7	−5.7	+1.7	−3.3	+0.5	−6.1	+6.3	+0.7

Set by set

Set	Richard Gasquet	Andy Murray	Net, Richard
1	+3.8	−0.2	+4.0
2	+0.4	−0.9	+1.3
3	+1.2	−2.8	+4.0
4	−2.8	+1.9	−4.7
5	−5.9	+2.7	−8.7

Adaptation

First-serve direction mix set by set, with the share of points each direction won. The scores measure whether the server moved toward the directions that had been winning earlier in this match, set to set and every two to three service games, in points per 100 first serves. Read them as a habit, not a gain: across the tour, a direction's edge in early sets barely predicts the later ones. Whether the returner responded can't be told apart from noise within one match.

Richard Gasquet serving

Set	Wide	Body	T
1	47% 69%	–	53% 72%
2	54% 65%	–	46% 71%
3	67% 69%	2% 100%	30% 46%
4	44% 50%	6% 100%	50% 56%
5	47% 50%	–	53% 62%

Set to set +0.23 per 100 first serves in sets 2+

Within sets +0.37 per 100 first serves, every two to three service games

Andy Murray serving

Set	Wide	Body	T
1	52% 75%	2% 0%	46% 48%
2	50% 58%	8% 50%	42% 70%
3	53% 57%	9% 67%	39% 59%
4	80% 81%	–	20% 75%
5	63% 76%	–	37% 80%

Set to set −0.08 per 100 first serves in sets 2+

Within sets −0.35 per 100 first serves, every two to three service games

Counterfactual: the best direction every time

If each shot had gone in the direction that is usually worth most for that stroke and position, this is how many more points each player would expect to win. It's an upper bound: the best direction isn't always on, and the chart can't see the ball's pace or position.

Richard Gasquet

16.6 points left on the table across 558 shots 2.98 per 100 shots

Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your forehand side hit FH through the middle ×11; FH crosscourt rates higher · 0.56 pts
Return +1: drive to your forehand side hit FH through the middle ×8; FH crosscourt rates higher · 0.47 pts
Return of a 2nd serve, T, deuce court hit BH slice through the middle ×6; BH slice crosscourt rates higher · 0.47 pts
Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your forehand side, you at net hit FH volley down the line ×3; FH volley crosscourt rates higher · 0.42 pts

Andy Murray

15.5 points left on the table across 552 shots 2.80 per 100 shots

Return of a 1st serve, wide, deuce court hit FH slice down the line ×5; FH slice crosscourt rates higher · 0.54 pts
Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your forehand side hit FH through the middle ×9; FH crosscourt rates higher · 0.46 pts
Return of a 2nd serve, T, ad court hit FH through the middle ×4; FH inside-in rates higher · 0.38 pts
Rally, shots 5–8: volley to your backhand side, opponent at net hit BH slice through the middle ×2; BH slice down the line rates higher · 0.38 pts