Olympics · SF · Hard · 16 Aug 2008
Vera Zvonareva v Elena Dementieva
80–92 in points · Elena Dementieva won
Why it went the way it did
Elena Dementieva won 4.0 more points than Vera Zvonareva relative to what the serve alone predicted. Vera Zvonareva's biggest leaks: backhand execution −4.8, serve 1st execution −1.5, slice shot selection −1.4.
Each shot moves its hitter's chance of winning the point. Those moves are split into direction choice, shot selection and execution, and summed here. Read both columns together: one player's gain is the other's loss.
| Shot | Vera Zvonareva | Elena Dementieva | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dir | Sel | Exec | Total | Dir | Sel | Exec | Total | |
| Serve 1st | ±0.0 | −0.1 | −1.5 | −1.5 | +0.2 | −0.1 | −0.9 | −0.8 |
| Serve 2nd | −0.1 | ±0.0 | +1.3 | +1.2 | +0.1 | ±0.0 | −0.9 | −0.8 |
| Return | ±0.0 | +0.3 | +2.8 | +3.2 | −0.3 | +0.7 | +0.5 | +0.9 |
| Forehand | +0.5 | +2.0 | +4.9 | +7.4 | +0.3 | +1.5 | +4.8 | +6.6 |
| Backhand | −1.0 | −0.5 | −4.8 | −6.3 | −1.6 | +0.3 | +5.0 | +3.7 |
| Slice | −0.3 | −1.4 | −0.4 | −2.1 | −0.3 | −2.6 | +1.5 | −1.5 |
| Net | +0.4 | +0.7 | +1.1 | +2.2 | +0.1 | −0.2 | +0.9 | +0.8 |
| Touch | +0.1 | −0.6 | −0.1 | −0.6 | +0.1 | −0.4 | −1.4 | −1.7 |
| All shots | −0.4 | +0.4 | +3.3 | +3.3 | −1.4 | −0.7 | +9.4 | +7.3 |
Set by set
| Set | Vera Zvonareva | Elena Dementieva | Net, Vera | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | −2.1 | +0.7 | −2.8 | |
| 2 | +5.4 | +6.6 | −1.2 |
Adaptation
First-serve direction mix set by set, with the share of points each direction won. The scores measure whether the server moved toward the directions that had been winning earlier in this match, set to set and every two to three service games, in points per 100 first serves. Read them as a habit, not a gain: across the tour, a direction's edge in early sets barely predicts the later ones. Whether the returner responded can't be told apart from noise within one match.
Vera Zvonareva serving
| Set | Wide | Body | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 48% 20% | 6% 0% | 45% 71% |
| 2 | 31% 38% | 25% 69% | 44% 57% |
Set to set +0.85 per 100 first serves in sets 2+
Within sets +1.74 per 100 first serves, every two to three service games
Elena Dementieva serving
| Set | Wide | Body | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 46% 50% | 15% 50% | 38% 50% |
| 2 | 52% 66% | 13% 43% | 36% 45% |
Within sets −0.35 per 100 first serves, every two to three service games
Counterfactual: the best direction every time
If each shot had gone in the direction that is usually worth most for that stroke and position, this is how many more points each player would expect to win. It's an upper bound: the best direction isn't always on, and the chart can't see the ball's pace or position.
Vera Zvonareva
11.6 points left on the table across 469 shots 2.47 per 100 shots
- Long rally, 9+: drive to your backhand side hit BH through the middle ×16; BH crosscourt rates higher · 0.84 pts
- Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your middle hit BH through the middle ×13; BH crosscourt rates higher · 0.61 pts
- Long rally, 9+: drive to your middle hit BH through the middle ×9; BH down the line rates higher · 0.49 pts
- Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your middle hit FH through the middle ×7; FH crosscourt rates higher · 0.49 pts
Elena Dementieva
12.3 points left on the table across 466 shots 2.64 per 100 shots
- Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your backhand side hit BH through the middle ×20; BH crosscourt rates higher · 0.86 pts
- Long rally, 9+: drive to your backhand side hit BH through the middle ×15; BH crosscourt rates higher · 0.78 pts
- Long rally, 9+: drive to your middle hit BH through the middle ×13; BH down the line rates higher · 0.71 pts
- Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your middle hit FH through the middle ×10; FH crosscourt rates higher · 0.70 pts