US Open · SF · Hard · 5 Sep 2008
Rafael Nadal v Andy Murray
126–149 in points · Andy Murray won
Why it went the way it did
Andy Murray won 19.9 more points than Rafael Nadal relative to what the serve alone predicted. Rafael Nadal's biggest leaks: return execution −2.8, slice shot selection −2.4, slice execution −1.9.
Each shot moves its hitter's chance of winning the point. Those moves are split into direction choice, shot selection and execution, and summed here. Read both columns together: one player's gain is the other's loss.
| Shot | Rafael Nadal | Andy Murray | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dir | Sel | Exec | Total | Dir | Sel | Exec | Total | |
| Serve 1st | −0.1 | −0.2 | +0.4 | +0.1 | +0.4 | +0.3 | +3.5 | +4.2 |
| Serve 2nd | ±0.0 | −0.1 | +1.1 | +1.0 | +0.1 | +0.1 | −0.1 | +0.2 |
| Return | +0.1 | −0.4 | −2.8 | −3.2 | −0.2 | −0.2 | +8.2 | +7.8 |
| Forehand | +0.4 | +5.0 | +1.6 | +7.0 | +1.2 | +1.6 | +1.5 | +4.4 |
| Backhand | +0.1 | +0.8 | −1.3 | −0.4 | +0.2 | +2.7 | +1.4 | +4.3 |
| Slice | −0.2 | −2.4 | −1.9 | −4.5 | −0.6 | −2.9 | +1.0 | −2.5 |
| Net | +0.2 | +0.3 | −0.8 | −0.3 | +0.4 | ±0.0 | +0.8 | +1.2 |
| Touch | −0.1 | −0.3 | −0.6 | −1.1 | −0.1 | −0.4 | −0.6 | −1.1 |
| All shots | +0.5 | +2.6 | −4.4 | −1.4 | +1.4 | +1.3 | +15.8 | +18.5 |
Set by set
| Set | Rafael Nadal | Andy Murray | Net, Rafael | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | −1.4 | +6.7 | −8.1 | |
| 2 | −1.6 | +4.6 | −6.2 | |
| 3 | +1.6 | +1.1 | +0.5 | |
| 4 | −0.1 | +6.0 | −6.1 |
Adaptation
First-serve direction mix set by set, with the share of points each direction won. The scores measure whether the server moved toward the directions that had been winning earlier in this match, set to set and every two to three service games, in points per 100 first serves. Read them as a habit, not a gain: across the tour, a direction's edge in early sets barely predicts the later ones. Whether the returner responded can't be told apart from noise within one match.
Rafael Nadal serving
| Set | Wide | Body | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 48% 54% | 15% 50% | 37% 40% |
| 2 | 65% 59% | 7% 75% | 28% 63% |
| 3 | 52% 69% | 6% 50% | 42% 77% |
| 4 | 50% 50% | 15% 13% | 35% 72% |
Set to set +0.44 per 100 first serves in sets 2+
Within sets +0.96 per 100 first serves, every two to three service games
Andy Murray serving
| Set | Wide | Body | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 47% 89% | – | 53% 80% |
| 2 | 53% 85% | 3% 0% | 45% 71% |
| 3 | 50% 67% | – | 50% 75% |
| 4 | 48% 62% | 4% 0% | 48% 69% |
Set to set +0.41 per 100 first serves in sets 2+
Within sets +0.02 per 100 first serves, every two to three service games
Counterfactual: the best direction every time
If each shot had gone in the direction that is usually worth most for that stroke and position, this is how many more points each player would expect to win. It's an upper bound: the best direction isn't always on, and the chart can't see the ball's pace or position.
Rafael Nadal
13.4 points left on the table across 502 shots 2.67 per 100 shots
- Serve +1: deep return to your middle hit FH through the middle ×8; FH crosscourt rates higher · 0.59 pts
- Serve +1: mid-depth return to your middle hit FH through the middle ×6; FH crosscourt rates higher · 0.52 pts
- Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your forehand side hit FH through the middle ×10; FH crosscourt rates higher · 0.51 pts
- Return of a 1st serve, T, deuce court hit FH down the line ×3; FH inside-out rates higher · 0.50 pts
Andy Murray
12.8 points left on the table across 554 shots 2.31 per 100 shots
- Return +1: drive to your forehand side hit FH down the line ×12; FH crosscourt rates higher · 0.53 pts
- Return of a 1st serve, wide, ad court hit BH slice through the middle ×5; BH slice crosscourt rates higher · 0.38 pts
- Return of a 2nd serve, T, ad court hit FH through the middle ×4; FH inside-out rates higher · 0.37 pts
- Return +1: drive to your forehand side hit FH through the middle ×6; FH crosscourt rates higher · 0.35 pts