Wimbledon · R16 · Grass · 29 Jun 2009
Virginie Razzano v Francesca Schiavone
58–73 in points · Francesca Schiavone won
Why it went the way it did
Francesca Schiavone won 9.4 more points than Virginie Razzano relative to what the serve alone predicted. Virginie Razzano's biggest leaks: return execution −5.1, forehand execution −1.1, touch execution −1.1.
Each shot moves its hitter's chance of winning the point. Those moves are split into direction choice, shot selection and execution, and summed here. Read both columns together: one player's gain is the other's loss.
| Shot | Virginie Razzano | Francesca Schiavone | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dir | Sel | Exec | Total | Dir | Sel | Exec | Total | |
| Serve 1st | ±0.0 | −0.3 | +0.2 | −0.1 | +0.3 | −0.2 | −0.9 | −0.8 |
| Serve 2nd | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | −0.1 | +0.2 | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | +0.2 |
| Return | −1.0 | −0.1 | −5.1 | −6.2 | +0.1 | −2.8 | +2.0 | −0.6 |
| Forehand | +1.0 | +0.1 | −1.1 | −0.1 | +1.0 | +1.8 | −0.2 | +2.6 |
| Backhand | ±0.0 | +0.5 | −0.6 | −0.1 | ±0.0 | +0.1 | +0.1 | +0.2 |
| Slice | ±0.0 | −0.9 | −0.8 | −1.7 | +0.2 | −3.6 | +2.9 | −0.6 |
| Net | +0.2 | +0.3 | +0.6 | +1.1 | −0.1 | +0.8 | −0.9 | −0.2 |
| Touch | −0.1 | −0.6 | −1.1 | −1.8 | ±0.0 | +0.2 | −0.6 | −0.4 |
| All shots | +0.1 | −1.0 | −8.0 | −8.9 | +1.7 | −3.7 | +2.5 | +0.5 |
Set by set
| Set | Virginie Razzano | Francesca Schiavone | Net, Virginie | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | −6.1 | +1.1 | −7.2 | |
| 2 | −2.8 | −0.6 | −2.2 |
Adaptation
First-serve direction mix set by set, with the share of points each direction won. The scores measure whether the server moved toward the directions that had been winning earlier in this match, set to set and every two to three service games, in points per 100 first serves. Read them as a habit, not a gain: across the tour, a direction's edge in early sets barely predicts the later ones. Whether the returner responded can't be told apart from noise within one match.
Virginie Razzano serving
| Set | Wide | Body | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 55% 52% | 24% 56% | 21% 50% |
| 2 | 43% 73% | 20% 43% | 37% 77% |
Set to set −0.20 per 100 first serves in sets 2+
Within sets +0.81 per 100 first serves, every two to three service games
Francesca Schiavone serving
| Set | Wide | Body | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 58% 100% | 11% 50% | 32% 67% |
| 2 | 54% 75% | 11% 75% | 35% 69% |
Within sets −0.05 per 100 first serves, every two to three service games
Counterfactual: the best direction every time
If each shot had gone in the direction that is usually worth most for that stroke and position, this is how many more points each player would expect to win. It's an upper bound: the best direction isn't always on, and the chart can't see the ball's pace or position.
Virginie Razzano
6.1 points left on the table across 233 shots 2.60 per 100 shots
- Return of a 2nd serve, wide, ad court hit BH down the line ×5; BH crosscourt rates higher · 0.54 pts
- Return of a 2nd serve, wide, ad court hit BH through the middle ×6; BH crosscourt rates higher · 0.33 pts
- Return of a 1st serve, wide, ad court hit BH down the line ×3; BH crosscourt rates higher · 0.32 pts
- Return of a 1st serve, T, deuce court hit BH down the line ×3; BH through the middle rates higher · 0.26 pts
Francesca Schiavone
5.5 points left on the table across 237 shots 2.32 per 100 shots
- Return of a 1st serve, wide, deuce court hit FH down the line ×4; FH crosscourt rates higher · 0.35 pts
- Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your backhand side hit BH slice down the line ×4; BH slice crosscourt rates higher · 0.35 pts
- Return +1: drive to your backhand side hit BH slice down the line ×3; BH slice crosscourt rates higher · 0.33 pts
- Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your forehand side, you at net hit FH volley through the middle ×1; FH volley crosscourt rates higher · 0.25 pts