Paris · F · Hard · 14 Feb 2010
Lucie Safarova v Elena Dementieva
89–103 in points · Elena Dementieva won
Why it went the way it did
Elena Dementieva won 7.0 more points than Lucie Safarova relative to what the serve alone predicted. Lucie Safarova's biggest leaks: backhand execution −4.1, slice shot selection −1.0, return direction choices −0.6.
Each shot moves its hitter's chance of winning the point. Those moves are split into direction choice, shot selection and execution, and summed here. Read both columns together: one player's gain is the other's loss.
| Shot | Lucie Safarova | Elena Dementieva | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dir | Sel | Exec | Total | Dir | Sel | Exec | Total | |
| Serve 1st | +0.8 | ±0.0 | +0.7 | +1.4 | +0.6 | ±0.0 | +3.0 | +3.5 |
| Serve 2nd | −0.2 | ±0.0 | +2.5 | +2.4 | +0.1 | ±0.0 | +1.0 | +1.1 |
| Return | −0.6 | −0.1 | ±0.0 | −0.7 | +0.1 | +0.8 | +0.5 | +1.3 |
| Forehand | +0.8 | +0.9 | +1.0 | +2.8 | +0.8 | +1.0 | +3.3 | +5.1 |
| Backhand | ±0.0 | +0.9 | −4.1 | −3.3 | −0.4 | +0.7 | −1.0 | −0.7 |
| Slice | −0.2 | −1.0 | ±0.0 | −1.1 | +0.1 | −4.2 | +0.7 | −3.3 |
| Net | ±0.0 | −0.1 | +0.2 | +0.1 | +0.1 | +0.1 | +0.4 | +0.6 |
| Touch | ±0.0 | −0.4 | −0.4 | −0.7 | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | +0.1 | +0.1 |
| All shots | +0.6 | +0.1 | ±0.0 | +0.7 | +1.4 | −1.6 | +8.0 | +7.7 |
Set by set
| Set | Lucie Safarova | Elena Dementieva | Net, Lucie | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | +6.2 | +2.8 | +3.4 | |
| 2 | −4.7 | +1.1 | −5.7 | |
| 3 | −0.8 | +3.9 | −4.6 |
Adaptation
First-serve direction mix set by set, with the share of points each direction won. The scores measure whether the server moved toward the directions that had been winning earlier in this match, set to set and every two to three service games, in points per 100 first serves. Read them as a habit, not a gain: across the tour, a direction's edge in early sets barely predicts the later ones. Whether the returner responded can't be told apart from noise within one match.
Lucie Safarova serving
| Set | Wide | Body | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 51% 79% | – | 49% 72% |
| 2 | 53% 30% | – | 47% 56% |
| 3 | 53% 48% | 3% 100% | 45% 67% |
Set to set −0.36 per 100 first serves in sets 2+
Within sets −0.09 per 100 first serves, every two to three service games
Elena Dementieva serving
| Set | Wide | Body | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 51% 68% | 7% 33% | 42% 67% |
| 2 | 48% 55% | 9% 50% | 43% 90% |
| 3 | 47% 79% | 3% 100% | 50% 67% |
Set to set −0.16 per 100 first serves in sets 2+
Within sets −0.40 per 100 first serves, every two to three service games
Counterfactual: the best direction every time
If each shot had gone in the direction that is usually worth most for that stroke and position, this is how many more points each player would expect to win. It's an upper bound: the best direction isn't always on, and the chart can't see the ball's pace or position.
Lucie Safarova
11.5 points left on the table across 384 shots 2.99 per 100 shots
- Return of a 1st serve, T, deuce court hit FH down the line ×7; FH inside-in rates higher · 0.79 pts
- Return of a 2nd serve, wide, deuce court hit BH crosscourt ×5; BH inside-out rates higher · 0.64 pts
- Return of a 2nd serve, wide, deuce court hit BH through the middle ×5; BH inside-out rates higher · 0.57 pts
- Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your backhand side hit BH through the middle ×13; BH crosscourt rates higher · 0.56 pts
Elena Dementieva
8.9 points left on the table across 371 shots 2.39 per 100 shots
- Long rally, 9+: drive to your backhand side hit BH through the middle ×10; BH crosscourt rates higher · 0.52 pts
- Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your backhand side hit BH through the middle ×11; BH crosscourt rates higher · 0.47 pts
- Return +1: drive to your backhand side hit BH through the middle ×8; BH crosscourt rates higher · 0.38 pts
- Return of a 1st serve, T, deuce court hit BH down the line ×5; BH through the middle rates higher · 0.34 pts