RallyIQ

Roland Garros · SF · Clay · 3 Jun 2010

Francesca Schiavone v Elena Dementieva

48–46 in points · result not charted to completion

Why it went the way it did

Francesca Schiavone won 1.2 more points than Elena Dementieva relative to what the serve alone predicted. Elena Dementieva's biggest leaks: forehand execution −1.8, slice shot selection −1.6, backhand execution −1.2.

Each shot moves its hitter's chance of winning the point. Those moves are split into direction choice, shot selection and execution, and summed here. Read both columns together: one player's gain is the other's loss.

ShotFrancesca SchiavoneElena Dementieva
DirSelExecTotalDirSelExecTotal
Serve 1st +0.2 ±0.0 −0.6 −0.4 +0.2 ±0.0 +0.5 +0.7
Serve 2nd +0.1 ±0.0 +0.1 +0.2 +0.1 ±0.0 −1.1 −1.0
Return −0.3 −0.2 −0.3 −0.7 +0.1 +0.4 −0.9 −0.4
Forehand +0.5 +1.9 −0.8 +1.6 +0.6 +2.4 −1.8 +1.2
Backhand +0.3 +1.1 +1.1 +2.4 +0.6 +0.1 −1.2 −0.5
Slice +0.4 −4.1 +1.7 −2.0 −0.1 −1.6 +0.5 −1.2
Net +0.1 +0.4 −0.5 +0.1 +0.1 +0.2 +0.5 +0.8
Touch −0.1 −0.3 −0.7 −1.1 +0.1 +0.1 −1.0 −0.8
All shots +1.1−1.2 +0.1±0.0 +1.7+1.6 −4.4−1.2

Set by set

SetFrancesca SchiavoneElena DementievaNet, Francesca
1±0.0−1.2 +1.2

Counterfactual: the best direction every time

If each shot had gone in the direction that is usually worth most for that stroke and position, this is how many more points each player would expect to win. It's an upper bound: the best direction isn't always on, and the chart can't see the ball's pace or position.

Francesca Schiavone

4.1 points left on the table across 180 shots 2.26 per 100 shots

  1. Serve +1: mid-depth return to your backhand side hit BH slice down the line ×2; BH slice crosscourt rates higher · 0.26 pts
  2. Rally, shots 5–8: volley to your backhand side, opponent at net hit BH lob down the line ×1; BH lob crosscourt rates higher · 0.24 pts
  3. Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your backhand side hit FH through the middle ×2; FH inside-in rates higher · 0.21 pts
  4. Return of a 1st serve, wide, deuce court hit FH down the line ×3; FH crosscourt rates higher · 0.21 pts

Elena Dementieva

3.6 points left on the table across 186 shots 1.94 per 100 shots

  1. Long rally, 9+: smash to your middle, opponent at net hit FH through the middle ×1; FH crosscourt rates higher · 0.21 pts
  2. Return +1: slice to your forehand side hit FH slice crosscourt ×1; FH slice down the line rates higher · 0.17 pts
  3. Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your backhand side hit FH inside-out ×5; FH inside-in rates higher · 0.15 pts
  4. Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your middle hit FH through the middle ×2; FH crosscourt rates higher · 0.14 pts