Davis Cup World Group SF · RR · Clay · 16 Sep 2011
Richard Gasquet v Rafael Nadal
54–93 in points · Rafael Nadal won
Why it went the way it did
Rafael Nadal won 23.7 more points than Richard Gasquet relative to what the serve alone predicted. Richard Gasquet's biggest leaks: net execution −4.7, forehand execution −3.9, slice shot selection −2.5.
Each shot moves its hitter's chance of winning the point. Those moves are split into direction choice, shot selection and execution, and summed here. Read both columns together: one player's gain is the other's loss.
| Shot | Richard Gasquet | Rafael Nadal | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dir | Sel | Exec | Total | Dir | Sel | Exec | Total | |
| Serve 1st | −0.2 | +0.4 | −1.8 | −1.6 | −0.2 | ±0.0 | −0.5 | −0.7 |
| Serve 2nd | ±0.0 | +0.1 | +0.1 | +0.2 | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | −0.2 | −0.2 |
| Return | ±0.0 | −0.2 | +0.2 | ±0.0 | +0.3 | +2.3 | −0.3 | +2.3 |
| Forehand | +0.3 | +2.9 | −3.9 | −0.8 | +1.4 | +3.7 | +3.3 | +8.4 |
| Backhand | −0.1 | +2.3 | +2.0 | +4.2 | +0.5 | +1.5 | +3.1 | +5.0 |
| Slice | +0.2 | −2.5 | −0.2 | −2.5 | +0.1 | −0.5 | −0.1 | −0.4 |
| Net | +0.2 | +0.1 | −4.7 | −4.3 | +0.3 | +0.5 | +0.7 | +1.5 |
| Touch | ±0.0 | −0.5 | −1.3 | −1.8 | −0.3 | +0.1 | +1.3 | +1.2 |
| All shots | +0.5 | +2.6 | −9.6 | −6.6 | +2.1 | +7.6 | +7.3 | +17.1 |
Set by set
| Set | Richard Gasquet | Rafael Nadal | Net, Richard | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | −0.1 | +4.6 | −4.7 | |
| 2 | −6.4 | +6.2 | −12.6 | |
| 3 | −0.1 | +6.3 | −6.4 |
Adaptation
First-serve direction mix set by set, with the share of points each direction won. The scores measure whether the server moved toward the directions that had been winning earlier in this match, set to set and every two to three service games, in points per 100 first serves. Read them as a habit, not a gain: across the tour, a direction's edge in early sets barely predicts the later ones. Whether the returner responded can't be told apart from noise within one match.
Richard Gasquet serving
| Set | Wide | Body | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 44% 63% | 11% 25% | 44% 56% |
| 2 | 38% 46% | 12% 0% | 50% 41% |
| 3 | 38% 50% | 14% 67% | 48% 30% |
Set to set −1.52 per 100 first serves in sets 2+
Within sets +0.01 per 100 first serves, every two to three service games
Rafael Nadal serving
| Set | Wide | Body | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 55% 83% | 18% 50% | 27% 67% |
| 2 | 50% 100% | 25% 100% | 25% 100% |
| 3 | 68% 73% | 27% 67% | 5% 100% |
Set to set +0.67 per 100 first serves in sets 2+
Within sets −0.27 per 100 first serves, every two to three service games
Counterfactual: the best direction every time
If each shot had gone in the direction that is usually worth most for that stroke and position, this is how many more points each player would expect to win. It's an upper bound: the best direction isn't always on, and the chart can't see the ball's pace or position.
Richard Gasquet
6.4 points left on the table across 271 shots 2.36 per 100 shots
- Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your forehand side hit FH through the middle ×7; FH crosscourt rates higher · 0.36 pts
- Serve +1: short return to your backhand side hit BH through the middle + approach ×2; BH down the line + approach rates higher · 0.34 pts
- Return of a 1st serve, wide, ad court hit BH slice down the line ×2; BH slice crosscourt rates higher · 0.33 pts
- Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your backhand side hit BH through the middle ×8; BH crosscourt rates higher · 0.31 pts
Rafael Nadal
6.5 points left on the table across 286 shots 2.26 per 100 shots
- Return of a 1st serve, wide, ad court hit FH crosscourt ×8; FH inside-out rates higher · 0.69 pts
- Return of a 1st serve, wide, deuce court hit BH through the middle ×7; BH crosscourt rates higher · 0.32 pts
- Rally, shots 5–8: lob to your backhand side hit Smash through the middle ×1; Smash inside-in rates higher · 0.22 pts
- Return of a 1st serve, T, ad court, server rushing the net hit BH through the middle ×2; BH crosscourt rates higher · 0.22 pts