Australian Open · R32 · Hard · 21 Jan 2012
Michael Llodra v Andy Murray
61–94 in points · Andy Murray won
Why it went the way it did
Andy Murray won 16.0 more points than Michael Llodra relative to what the serve alone predicted. Michael Llodra's biggest leaks: slice shot selection −4.1, serve 1st execution −4.1, other shot selection −1.7.
Each shot moves its hitter's chance of winning the point. Those moves are split into direction choice, shot selection and execution, and summed here. Read both columns together: one player's gain is the other's loss.
| Shot | Michael Llodra | Andy Murray | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dir | Sel | Exec | Total | Dir | Sel | Exec | Total | |
| Serve 1st | −0.4 | +2.6 | −4.1 | −1.8 | +0.1 | ±0.0 | −0.2 | −0.2 |
| Serve 2nd | −0.1 | +0.7 | −0.6 | ±0.0 | +0.1 | ±0.0 | +0.4 | +0.5 |
| Return | −0.2 | −0.8 | +2.4 | +1.3 | +0.3 | +1.3 | +1.8 | +3.4 |
| Forehand | +0.2 | +2.6 | −0.3 | +2.6 | +1.3 | +1.2 | +1.9 | +4.4 |
| Backhand | −0.2 | +0.7 | +0.2 | +0.7 | +0.5 | +2.0 | +1.2 | +3.8 |
| Slice | −0.2 | −4.1 | +0.9 | −3.3 | ±0.0 | −0.6 | +0.3 | −0.4 |
| Net | +1.0 | −0.3 | +2.7 | +3.4 | +0.2 | +0.9 | +1.2 | +2.3 |
| Touch | −0.2 | −1.0 | +0.1 | −1.1 | +0.3 | −0.7 | +1.3 | +0.9 |
| Other | −0.4 | −1.7 | −0.6 | −2.7 | −0.1 | −0.5 | +0.9 | +0.3 |
| All shots | −0.6 | −1.2 | +0.8 | −1.0 | +2.7 | +3.4 | +8.9 | +15.0 |
Set by set
| Set | Michael Llodra | Andy Murray | Net, Michael | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | +3.4 | +5.6 | −2.2 | |
| 2 | +2.2 | +9.1 | −6.9 | |
| 3 | −6.6 | +0.4 | −7.0 |
Adaptation
First-serve direction mix set by set, with the share of points each direction won. The scores measure whether the server moved toward the directions that had been winning earlier in this match, set to set and every two to three service games, in points per 100 first serves. Read them as a habit, not a gain: across the tour, a direction's edge in early sets barely predicts the later ones. Whether the returner responded can't be told apart from noise within one match.
Michael Llodra serving
| Set | Wide | Body | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 41% 77% | 16% 60% | 44% 43% |
| 2 | 55% 50% | 17% 60% | 28% 38% |
| 3 | 38% 33% | 31% 40% | 31% 20% |
Set to set +0.41 per 100 first serves in sets 2+
Within sets −0.16 per 100 first serves, every two to three service games
Andy Murray serving
| Set | Wide | Body | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 47% 78% | 5% 50% | 47% 56% |
| 2 | 43% 90% | 9% 0% | 48% 73% |
| 3 | 38% 83% | 6% 100% | 56% 67% |
Set to set −0.92 per 100 first serves in sets 2+
Within sets −0.67 per 100 first serves, every two to three service games
Counterfactual: the best direction every time
If each shot had gone in the direction that is usually worth most for that stroke and position, this is how many more points each player would expect to win. It's an upper bound: the best direction isn't always on, and the chart can't see the ball's pace or position.
Michael Llodra
10.9 points left on the table across 241 shots 4.52 per 100 shots
- Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your forehand side, you at net hit FH volley through the middle ×3; FH volley crosscourt rates higher · 0.85 pts
- Return of a 1st serve, T, ad court hit BH slice through the middle ×7; BH slice inside-in rates higher · 0.68 pts
- Return of a 1st serve, wide, deuce court hit BH slice crosscourt ×8; BH slice inside-in rates higher · 0.54 pts
- Return of a 1st serve, T, ad court hit BH slice crosscourt ×3; BH slice inside-in rates higher · 0.38 pts
Andy Murray
6.6 points left on the table across 263 shots 2.51 per 100 shots
- Return +1: volley to your forehand side, opponent at net hit FH down the line ×6; FH crosscourt rates higher · 0.29 pts
- Return of a 1st serve, T, deuce court, server rushing the net hit BH through the middle ×5; BH crosscourt rates higher · 0.24 pts
- Rally, shots 5–8: volley to your backhand side, opponent at net hit BH volley through the middle ×1; BH volley crosscourt rates higher · 0.24 pts
- Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your backhand side hit BH through the middle ×6; BH crosscourt rates higher · 0.23 pts