s Hertogenbosch · F · Grass · 23 Jun 2012
Nadia Petrova v Urszula Radwanska
67–49 in points · Nadia Petrova won
Why it went the way it did
Nadia Petrova won 9.4 more points than Urszula Radwanska relative to what the serve alone predicted. Urszula Radwanska's biggest leaks: slice shot selection −2.4, forehand execution −2.1, serve 1st execution −1.6.
Each shot moves its hitter's chance of winning the point. Those moves are split into direction choice, shot selection and execution, and summed here. Read both columns together: one player's gain is the other's loss.
| Shot | Nadia Petrova | Urszula Radwanska | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dir | Sel | Exec | Total | Dir | Sel | Exec | Total | |
| Serve 1st | +0.5 | ±0.0 | +1.3 | +1.8 | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | −1.6 | −1.6 |
| Serve 2nd | −0.1 | ±0.0 | −0.3 | −0.4 | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | ±0.0 |
| Return | ±0.0 | +0.6 | −0.2 | +0.4 | −0.1 | −0.7 | +0.7 | −0.2 |
| Forehand | +0.3 | +1.1 | −0.1 | +1.3 | +0.6 | +1.2 | −2.1 | −0.4 |
| Backhand | +0.4 | +0.7 | +1.6 | +2.6 | +0.4 | +1.2 | +0.5 | +2.1 |
| Slice | +0.1 | −1.8 | −0.2 | −1.8 | −0.1 | −2.4 | −1.1 | −3.7 |
| Net | −0.1 | +0.2 | +0.6 | +0.7 | +0.2 | +0.2 | −0.1 | +0.3 |
| Touch | −0.1 | −0.1 | −0.2 | −0.4 | +0.2 | −0.3 | −1.6 | −1.7 |
| All shots | +1.1 | +0.6 | +2.5 | +4.3 | +1.1 | −0.9 | −5.3 | −5.1 |
Set by set
| Set | Nadia Petrova | Urszula Radwanska | Net, Nadia | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | +4.1 | −0.7 | +4.8 | |
| 2 | +0.2 | −4.4 | +4.6 |
Adaptation
First-serve direction mix set by set, with the share of points each direction won. The scores measure whether the server moved toward the directions that had been winning earlier in this match, set to set and every two to three service games, in points per 100 first serves. Read them as a habit, not a gain: across the tour, a direction's edge in early sets barely predicts the later ones. Whether the returner responded can't be told apart from noise within one match.
Nadia Petrova serving
| Set | Wide | Body | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 27% 63% | – | 73% 64% |
| 2 | 31% 75% | – | 69% 61% |
Set to set +0.21 per 100 first serves in sets 2+
Within sets −0.34 per 100 first serves, every two to three service games
Urszula Radwanska serving
| Set | Wide | Body | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 43% 50% | 14% 50% | 43% 42% |
| 2 | 41% 38% | 22% 71% | 38% 50% |
Within sets +0.33 per 100 first serves, every two to three service games
Counterfactual: the best direction every time
If each shot had gone in the direction that is usually worth most for that stroke and position, this is how many more points each player would expect to win. It's an upper bound: the best direction isn't always on, and the chart can't see the ball's pace or position.
Nadia Petrova
4.9 points left on the table across 200 shots 2.46 per 100 shots
- Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your forehand side, you at net hit FH volley down the line ×2; FH volley crosscourt rates higher · 0.27 pts
- Return +1: drive to your middle, you at net hit FH volley through the middle ×1; FH volley crosscourt rates higher · 0.23 pts
- Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your backhand side, opponent at net, you at net hit BH volley down the line ×1; BH volley crosscourt rates higher · 0.21 pts
- Return of a 1st serve, wide, ad court hit BH down the line ×2; BH crosscourt rates higher · 0.21 pts
Urszula Radwanska
4.1 points left on the table across 188 shots 2.16 per 100 shots
- Return +1: drive to your forehand side hit FH through the middle ×3; FH crosscourt rates higher · 0.19 pts
- Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your backhand side hit BH slice through the middle ×3; BH slice crosscourt rates higher · 0.18 pts
- Return of a 1st serve, T, deuce court hit BH down the line ×2; BH through the middle rates higher · 0.17 pts
- Serve +1: mid-depth return to your middle hit FH through the middle ×2; FH crosscourt rates higher · 0.17 pts