Olympics · R64 · Grass · 28 Jul 2012
Ana Ivanovic v Christina Mchale
72–63 in points · Ana Ivanovic won
Why it went the way it did
Ana Ivanovic won 5.5 more points than Christina Mchale relative to what the serve alone predicted. Christina Mchale's biggest leaks: slice shot selection −2.5, forehand execution −2.4, net execution −1.7.
Each shot moves its hitter's chance of winning the point. Those moves are split into direction choice, shot selection and execution, and summed here. Read both columns together: one player's gain is the other's loss.
| Shot | Ana Ivanovic | Christina Mchale | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dir | Sel | Exec | Total | Dir | Sel | Exec | Total | |
| Serve 1st | +0.3 | ±0.0 | −1.5 | −1.2 | +0.3 | ±0.0 | −1.6 | −1.4 |
| Serve 2nd | −0.2 | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | −0.3 | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | −0.3 | −0.3 |
| Return | −0.1 | +0.5 | +2.7 | +3.0 | ±0.0 | −0.9 | −1.5 | −2.4 |
| Forehand | +0.3 | +0.9 | −1.1 | +0.2 | +1.3 | +0.9 | −2.4 | −0.2 |
| Backhand | +0.4 | +1.3 | ±0.0 | +1.6 | +0.3 | +0.5 | +1.4 | +2.1 |
| Slice | −0.2 | −2.3 | +0.1 | −2.4 | +0.1 | −2.5 | +2.3 | −0.2 |
| Net | −0.2 | ±0.0 | −1.7 | −1.9 | −0.2 | −0.3 | −1.7 | −2.1 |
| Touch | −0.1 | −0.7 | +0.7 | −0.1 | −0.1 | −1.1 | −0.8 | −2.1 |
| All shots | +0.2 | −0.3 | −0.8 | −0.9 | +1.7 | −3.5 | −4.6 | −6.4 |
Set by set
| Set | Ana Ivanovic | Christina Mchale | Net, Ana | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | −1.5 | −4.1 | +2.6 | |
| 2 | +0.6 | −2.3 | +2.9 |
Adaptation
First-serve direction mix set by set, with the share of points each direction won. The scores measure whether the server moved toward the directions that had been winning earlier in this match, set to set and every two to three service games, in points per 100 first serves. Read them as a habit, not a gain: across the tour, a direction's edge in early sets barely predicts the later ones. Whether the returner responded can't be told apart from noise within one match.
Ana Ivanovic serving
| Set | Wide | Body | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 35% 91% | 13% 25% | 52% 69% |
| 2 | 48% 67% | – | 52% 44% |
Set to set +3.30 per 100 first serves in sets 2+
Within sets +2.29 per 100 first serves, every two to three service games
Christina Mchale serving
| Set | Wide | Body | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 38% 58% | 6% 50% | 56% 67% |
| 2 | 34% 36% | 20% 38% | 46% 63% |
Set to set −0.08 per 100 first serves in sets 2+
Within sets +0.47 per 100 first serves, every two to three service games
Counterfactual: the best direction every time
If each shot had gone in the direction that is usually worth most for that stroke and position, this is how many more points each player would expect to win. It's an upper bound: the best direction isn't always on, and the chart can't see the ball's pace or position.
Ana Ivanovic
5.9 points left on the table across 233 shots 2.53 per 100 shots
- Return +1: drive to your backhand side hit BH through the middle ×7; BH crosscourt rates higher · 0.33 pts
- Long rally, 9+: drive to your forehand side, you at net hit FH volley through the middle ×1; FH volley crosscourt rates higher · 0.28 pts
- Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your backhand side hit BH slice down the line ×3; BH slice crosscourt rates higher · 0.26 pts
- Return of a 1st serve, T, deuce court hit BH down the line ×3; BH through the middle rates higher · 0.26 pts
Christina Mchale
4.6 points left on the table across 233 shots 1.98 per 100 shots
- Return of a 1st serve, T, ad court hit FH down the line ×9; FH through the middle rates higher · 0.35 pts
- Long rally, 9+: drive to your backhand side hit BH volley through the middle ×1; BH volley down the line rates higher · 0.30 pts
- Return of a 1st serve, wide, deuce court hit FH down the line ×3; FH crosscourt rates higher · 0.27 pts
- Return +1: drive to your forehand side hit FH down the line ×6; FH crosscourt rates higher · 0.21 pts