Olympics · R64 · Grass · 28 Jul 2012
Vera Zvonareva v Sofia Arvidsson
85–70 in points · Vera Zvonareva won
Why it went the way it did
Vera Zvonareva won 8.8 more points than Sofia Arvidsson relative to what the serve alone predicted. Sofia Arvidsson's biggest leaks: serve 2nd execution −2.7, backhand execution −1.8, slice shot selection −1.2.
Each shot moves its hitter's chance of winning the point. Those moves are split into direction choice, shot selection and execution, and summed here. Read both columns together: one player's gain is the other's loss.
| Shot | Vera Zvonareva | Sofia Arvidsson | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dir | Sel | Exec | Total | Dir | Sel | Exec | Total | |
| Serve 1st | +0.3 | ±0.0 | −0.1 | +0.1 | −0.2 | −0.1 | +1.7 | +1.5 |
| Serve 2nd | +0.1 | ±0.0 | +0.5 | +0.5 | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | −2.7 | −2.7 |
| Return | ±0.0 | −0.4 | +1.1 | +0.8 | −0.4 | −0.2 | +1.7 | +1.1 |
| Forehand | +0.6 | +1.3 | +2.6 | +4.5 | +1.1 | +1.5 | +4.3 | +6.9 |
| Backhand | +0.5 | +0.9 | +2.8 | +4.3 | +0.1 | +0.7 | −1.8 | −1.0 |
| Slice | −0.1 | −1.7 | −0.1 | −1.9 | +0.2 | −1.2 | −0.3 | −1.2 |
| Net | +0.2 | +0.7 | +1.8 | +2.6 | −0.2 | −0.5 | −0.1 | −0.8 |
| Touch | +0.1 | −0.1 | +1.0 | +0.9 | +0.1 | −0.5 | −0.3 | −0.8 |
| All shots | +1.6 | +0.6 | +9.6 | +11.9 | +0.7 | −0.2 | +2.5 | +3.0 |
Set by set
| Set | Vera Zvonareva | Sofia Arvidsson | Net, Vera | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | +7.3 | +1.2 | +6.1 | |
| 2 | +4.6 | +1.8 | +2.7 |
Adaptation
First-serve direction mix set by set, with the share of points each direction won. The scores measure whether the server moved toward the directions that had been winning earlier in this match, set to set and every two to three service games, in points per 100 first serves. Read them as a habit, not a gain: across the tour, a direction's edge in early sets barely predicts the later ones. Whether the returner responded can't be told apart from noise within one match.
Vera Zvonareva serving
| Set | Wide | Body | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 37% 87% | 7% 0% | 56% 78% |
| 2 | 34% 60% | 17% 80% | 48% 64% |
Set to set −1.41 per 100 first serves in sets 2+
Within sets +1.36 per 100 first serves, every two to three service games
Sofia Arvidsson serving
| Set | Wide | Body | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 38% 60% | 17% 78% | 45% 54% |
| 2 | 31% 60% | 28% 44% | 41% 62% |
Set to set +1.99 per 100 first serves in sets 2+
Within sets +0.99 per 100 first serves, every two to three service games
Counterfactual: the best direction every time
If each shot had gone in the direction that is usually worth most for that stroke and position, this is how many more points each player would expect to win. It's an upper bound: the best direction isn't always on, and the chart can't see the ball's pace or position.
Vera Zvonareva
4.4 points left on the table across 228 shots 1.94 per 100 shots
- Return of a 1st serve, wide, deuce court hit FH down the line ×4; FH crosscourt rates higher · 0.35 pts
- Return of a 1st serve, T, ad court hit FH down the line ×6; FH through the middle rates higher · 0.24 pts
- Return of a 1st serve, body, ad court hit BH down the line ×3; BH through the middle rates higher · 0.23 pts
- Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your forehand side hit FH down the line ×12; FH crosscourt rates higher · 0.22 pts
Sofia Arvidsson
4.5 points left on the table across 216 shots 2.10 per 100 shots
- Return of a 1st serve, T, deuce court hit BH down the line ×6; BH through the middle rates higher · 0.51 pts
- Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your forehand side hit FH volley through the middle ×1; FH volley crosscourt rates higher · 0.32 pts
- Return +1: drive to your backhand side hit BH through the middle ×6; BH crosscourt rates higher · 0.29 pts
- Return of a 1st serve, wide, deuce court hit FH down the line ×3; FH crosscourt rates higher · 0.27 pts