Olympics · QF · Grass · 2 Aug 2012
Nicolas Almagro v Andy Murray
30–61 in points · Andy Murray won
Why it went the way it did
Andy Murray won 17.2 more points than Nicolas Almagro relative to what the serve alone predicted. Nicolas Almagro's biggest leaks: serve 1st execution −1.8, slice shot selection −1.7, serve 2nd execution −1.0.
Each shot moves its hitter's chance of winning the point. Those moves are split into direction choice, shot selection and execution, and summed here. Read both columns together: one player's gain is the other's loss.
| Shot | Nicolas Almagro | Andy Murray | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dir | Sel | Exec | Total | Dir | Sel | Exec | Total | |
| Serve 1st | −0.2 | −0.2 | −1.8 | −2.2 | ±0.0 | −0.1 | +3.6 | +3.5 |
| Serve 2nd | ±0.0 | −0.1 | −1.0 | −1.1 | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | −0.9 | −0.9 |
| Return | −0.4 | −0.2 | −0.3 | −0.9 | +0.2 | +0.2 | +3.2 | +3.6 |
| Forehand | +0.2 | +0.7 | +1.0 | +1.9 | +0.4 | +0.4 | +7.3 | +8.2 |
| Backhand | −0.1 | −0.3 | +0.4 | ±0.0 | +0.1 | +0.1 | −0.7 | −0.5 |
| Slice | +0.1 | −1.7 | −0.7 | −2.2 | −0.4 | −1.3 | +1.5 | −0.2 |
| Net | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | −0.9 | −1.0 | +0.3 | −0.1 | −1.5 | −1.3 |
| Touch | ±0.0 | +0.1 | ±0.0 | +0.1 | +0.2 | −0.3 | −0.4 | −0.5 |
| All shots | −0.4 | −1.6 | −3.4 | −5.3 | +0.7 | −1.0 | +12.2 | +11.8 |
Set by set
| Set | Nicolas Almagro | Andy Murray | Net, Nicolas | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | −2.8 | +4.3 | −7.1 | |
| 2 | −2.5 | +7.5 | −10.1 |
Adaptation
First-serve direction mix set by set, with the share of points each direction won. The scores measure whether the server moved toward the directions that had been winning earlier in this match, set to set and every two to three service games, in points per 100 first serves. Read them as a habit, not a gain: across the tour, a direction's edge in early sets barely predicts the later ones. Whether the returner responded can't be told apart from noise within one match.
Nicolas Almagro serving
| Set | Wide | Body | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 39% 55% | 7% 50% | 54% 53% |
| 2 | 55% 36% | 25% 0% | 20% 50% |
Within sets −4.86 per 100 first serves, every two to three service games
Andy Murray serving
| Set | Wide | Body | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 32% 83% | 16% 100% | 53% 80% |
| 2 | 43% 100% | – | 57% 75% |
Within sets +0.18 per 100 first serves, every two to three service games
Counterfactual: the best direction every time
If each shot had gone in the direction that is usually worth most for that stroke and position, this is how many more points each player would expect to win. It's an upper bound: the best direction isn't always on, and the chart can't see the ball's pace or position.
Nicolas Almagro
3.1 points left on the table across 126 shots 2.45 per 100 shots
- Return of a 1st serve, wide, ad court hit BH slice down the line ×2; BH slice crosscourt rates higher · 0.39 pts
- Return of a 1st serve, T, deuce court hit BH slice down the line ×2; BH slice through the middle rates higher · 0.20 pts
- Serve +1: deep return to your middle hit FH through the middle ×2; FH crosscourt rates higher · 0.15 pts
- Return +1: volley to your middle hit BH down the line ×1; BH crosscourt rates higher · 0.15 pts
Andy Murray
2.4 points left on the table across 139 shots 1.74 per 100 shots
- Return +1: drive to your backhand side hit BH slice through the middle ×3; BH slice crosscourt rates higher · 0.25 pts
- Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your backhand side hit BH slice through the middle ×2; BH slice crosscourt rates higher · 0.15 pts
- Long rally, 9+: drive to your backhand side hit BH slice through the middle ×2; BH slice crosscourt rates higher · 0.14 pts
- Return +1: drive to your forehand side hit FH through the middle ×2; FH crosscourt rates higher · 0.12 pts