Olympics · F · Grass · 4 Aug 2012
Serena Williams v Maria Sharapova
56–25 in points · Serena Williams won
Why it went the way it did
Serena Williams won 15.2 more points than Maria Sharapova relative to what the serve alone predicted. Maria Sharapova's biggest leaks: forehand execution −2.2, serve 2nd execution −1.7, backhand execution −1.1.
Each shot moves its hitter's chance of winning the point. Those moves are split into direction choice, shot selection and execution, and summed here. Read both columns together: one player's gain is the other's loss.
| Shot | Serena Williams | Maria Sharapova | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dir | Sel | Exec | Total | Dir | Sel | Exec | Total | |
| Serve 1st | +0.4 | ±0.0 | +2.0 | +2.4 | −0.1 | ±0.0 | −0.7 | −0.9 |
| Serve 2nd | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | +0.9 | +0.9 | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | −1.7 | −1.6 |
| Return | +0.3 | +0.4 | +2.3 | +3.0 | +0.1 | ±0.0 | +0.3 | +0.3 |
| Forehand | +0.1 | +1.0 | −0.3 | +0.8 | −0.3 | +0.5 | −2.2 | −2.0 |
| Backhand | ±0.0 | +0.2 | +2.1 | +2.3 | +0.1 | +0.1 | −1.1 | −0.9 |
| Slice | −0.1 | −0.6 | −0.3 | −1.0 | ±0.0 | −0.1 | ±0.0 | −0.1 |
| Net | −0.1 | +0.1 | +0.8 | +0.8 | ±0.0 | −0.6 | −0.1 | −0.7 |
| Touch | +0.1 | −0.1 | +0.1 | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | −0.2 | +0.1 | −0.1 |
| All shots | +0.6 | +0.9 | +7.7 | +9.2 | −0.2 | −0.3 | −5.5 | −6.0 |
Set by set
| Set | Serena Williams | Maria Sharapova | Net, Serena | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | +5.9 | −2.9 | +8.8 | |
| 2 | +3.3 | −3.1 | +6.5 |
Adaptation
First-serve direction mix set by set, with the share of points each direction won. The scores measure whether the server moved toward the directions that had been winning earlier in this match, set to set and every two to three service games, in points per 100 first serves. Read them as a habit, not a gain: across the tour, a direction's edge in early sets barely predicts the later ones. Whether the returner responded can't be told apart from noise within one match.
Serena Williams serving
| Set | Wide | Body | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 63% 90% | – | 38% 50% |
| 2 | 65% 71% | 4% 100% | 31% 75% |
Within sets +2.62 per 100 first serves, every two to three service games
Maria Sharapova serving
| Set | Wide | Body | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 21% 20% | 21% 0% | 58% 50% |
| 2 | 20% 33% | 27% 25% | 53% 50% |
Within sets +2.32 per 100 first serves, every two to three service games
Counterfactual: the best direction every time
If each shot had gone in the direction that is usually worth most for that stroke and position, this is how many more points each player would expect to win. It's an upper bound: the best direction isn't always on, and the chart can't see the ball's pace or position.
Serena Williams
2.6 points left on the table across 103 shots 2.53 per 100 shots
- Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your backhand side hit BH through the middle ×5; BH crosscourt rates higher · 0.21 pts
- Return +1: drive to your forehand side hit FH through the middle ×3; FH crosscourt rates higher · 0.19 pts
- Serve +1: short return to your middle hit FH volley down the line ×1; FH volley crosscourt rates higher · 0.18 pts
- Rally, shots 5–8: lob to your forehand side, you at net hit Smash through the middle ×1; Smash crosscourt rates higher · 0.14 pts
Maria Sharapova
2.7 points left on the table across 100 shots 2.69 per 100 shots
- Return +1: drive to your forehand side hit FH through the middle ×5; FH crosscourt rates higher · 0.32 pts
- Serve +1: short return to your middle hit FH through the middle ×3; FH down the line rates higher · 0.28 pts
- Return of a 1st serve, T, deuce court hit BH down the line ×2; BH through the middle rates higher · 0.17 pts
- Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your forehand side hit FH through the middle ×3; FH crosscourt rates higher · 0.16 pts