Paris Masters · F · Hard · 29 Oct 2012
David Ferrer v Jerzy Janowicz
71–53 in points · David Ferrer won
Why it went the way it did
David Ferrer won 7.2 more points than Jerzy Janowicz relative to what the serve alone predicted. Jerzy Janowicz's biggest leaks: forehand execution −5.1, serve 2nd execution −2.2, slice shot selection −1.8.
Each shot moves its hitter's chance of winning the point. Those moves are split into direction choice, shot selection and execution, and summed here. Read both columns together: one player's gain is the other's loss.
| Shot | David Ferrer | Jerzy Janowicz | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dir | Sel | Exec | Total | Dir | Sel | Exec | Total | |
| Serve 1st | −0.5 | −0.1 | +1.5 | +0.9 | ±0.0 | −0.1 | +1.0 | +0.8 |
| Serve 2nd | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | −0.5 | −0.6 | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | −2.2 | −2.2 |
| Return | −0.2 | −0.3 | −0.9 | −1.4 | ±0.0 | +0.3 | −0.1 | +0.2 |
| Forehand | −0.1 | +1.3 | +0.2 | +1.4 | +0.4 | +1.3 | −5.1 | −3.3 |
| Backhand | −0.1 | −0.1 | +0.1 | −0.1 | +0.2 | +0.3 | −1.3 | −0.8 |
| Slice | −0.3 | −1.1 | +0.4 | −1.0 | +0.3 | −1.8 | −0.5 | −2.0 |
| Net | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | +0.2 | +0.2 | +0.1 | +0.2 | −0.2 | +0.2 |
| Touch | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | +0.4 | +0.4 | +0.1 | +0.4 | −0.7 | −0.2 |
| All shots | −1.1 | −0.4 | +1.4 | −0.1 | +1.1 | +0.7 | −9.1 | −7.3 |
Set by set
| Set | David Ferrer | Jerzy Janowicz | Net, David | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | −1.0 | −3.4 | +2.4 | |
| 2 | +0.9 | −3.9 | +4.9 |
Adaptation
First-serve direction mix set by set, with the share of points each direction won. The scores measure whether the server moved toward the directions that had been winning earlier in this match, set to set and every two to three service games, in points per 100 first serves. Read them as a habit, not a gain: across the tour, a direction's edge in early sets barely predicts the later ones. Whether the returner responded can't be told apart from noise within one match.
David Ferrer serving
| Set | Wide | Body | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 46% 77% | 21% 100% | 32% 67% |
| 2 | 45% 53% | 24% 78% | 32% 75% |
Set to set +0.37 per 100 first serves in sets 2+
Within sets +0.32 per 100 first serves, every two to three service games
Jerzy Janowicz serving
| Set | Wide | Body | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 33% 78% | 7% 50% | 59% 69% |
| 2 | 63% 42% | 13% 75% | 23% 57% |
Set to set +3.15 per 100 first serves in sets 2+
Within sets +0.58 per 100 first serves, every two to three service games
Counterfactual: the best direction every time
If each shot had gone in the direction that is usually worth most for that stroke and position, this is how many more points each player would expect to win. It's an upper bound: the best direction isn't always on, and the chart can't see the ball's pace or position.
David Ferrer
4.3 points left on the table across 173 shots 2.47 per 100 shots
- Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your forehand side hit FH through the middle ×6; FH crosscourt rates higher · 0.30 pts
- Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your backhand side hit BH slice through the middle ×3; BH slice crosscourt rates higher · 0.22 pts
- Return +1: drive to your forehand side, opponent at net hit FH through the middle ×2; FH crosscourt rates higher · 0.21 pts
- Long rally, 9+: drop shot to your backhand side hit BH slice through the middle ×1; BH slice down the line rates higher · 0.21 pts
Jerzy Janowicz
3.4 points left on the table across 199 shots 1.70 per 100 shots
- Return of a 1st serve, body, deuce court hit BH crosscourt ×4; BH through the middle rates higher · 0.24 pts
- Return of a 1st serve, wide, ad court hit BH through the middle ×7; BH crosscourt rates higher · 0.22 pts
- Return +1: drive to your backhand side hit BH through the middle ×4; BH crosscourt rates higher · 0.16 pts
- Return of a 1st serve, wide, ad court hit BH slice through the middle ×2; BH slice crosscourt rates higher · 0.15 pts