Australian Open · R16 · Hard · 20 Jan 2013
Elena Vesnina v Victoria Azarenka
31–58 in points · Victoria Azarenka won
Why it went the way it did
Victoria Azarenka won 12.6 more points than Elena Vesnina relative to what the serve alone predicted. Elena Vesnina's biggest leaks: backhand execution −2.9, forehand execution −2.2, serve 2nd execution −1.7.
Each shot moves its hitter's chance of winning the point. Those moves are split into direction choice, shot selection and execution, and summed here. Read both columns together: one player's gain is the other's loss.
| Shot | Elena Vesnina | Victoria Azarenka | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dir | Sel | Exec | Total | Dir | Sel | Exec | Total | |
| Serve 1st | −0.1 | ±0.0 | +0.6 | +0.5 | +0.3 | ±0.0 | +0.6 | +0.9 |
| Serve 2nd | −0.1 | ±0.0 | −1.7 | −1.7 | −0.1 | ±0.0 | −2.1 | −2.3 |
| Return | −0.3 | −0.1 | −1.0 | −1.3 | ±0.0 | +0.2 | +4.2 | +4.4 |
| Forehand | −0.2 | +0.2 | −2.2 | −2.2 | −0.4 | +0.3 | +2.3 | +2.1 |
| Backhand | −0.4 | −0.2 | −2.9 | −3.5 | −0.3 | −0.1 | −0.5 | −0.9 |
| Slice | ±0.0 | −0.7 | −0.4 | −1.0 | ±0.0 | −0.4 | −0.1 | −0.6 |
| Net | ±0.0 | +0.5 | −0.2 | +0.3 | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | ±0.0 |
| Touch | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | +0.1 | +0.1 | −0.1 | −0.2 | +0.3 | ±0.0 |
| All shots | −0.9 | −0.3 | −7.6 | −8.9 | −0.6 | −0.2 | +4.6 | +3.7 |
Set by set
| Set | Elena Vesnina | Victoria Azarenka | Net, Elena | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | −4.2 | +2.1 | −6.3 | |
| 2 | −4.7 | +1.6 | −6.4 |
Adaptation
First-serve direction mix set by set, with the share of points each direction won. The scores measure whether the server moved toward the directions that had been winning earlier in this match, set to set and every two to three service games, in points per 100 first serves. Read them as a habit, not a gain: across the tour, a direction's edge in early sets barely predicts the later ones. Whether the returner responded can't be told apart from noise within one match.
Elena Vesnina serving
| Set | Wide | Body | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 27% 43% | 23% 17% | 50% 46% |
| 2 | 33% 40% | 20% 0% | 47% 14% |
Within sets +1.93 per 100 first serves, every two to three service games
Victoria Azarenka serving
| Set | Wide | Body | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 41% 67% | 5% 100% | 55% 58% |
| 2 | 40% 50% | 4% 100% | 56% 64% |
Within sets −1.25 per 100 first serves, every two to three service games
Counterfactual: the best direction every time
If each shot had gone in the direction that is usually worth most for that stroke and position, this is how many more points each player would expect to win. It's an upper bound: the best direction isn't always on, and the chart can't see the ball's pace or position.
Elena Vesnina
3.8 points left on the table across 115 shots 3.33 per 100 shots
- Return of a 1st serve, wide, ad court hit BH down the line ×4; BH crosscourt rates higher · 0.38 pts
- Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your middle hit FH through the middle ×4; FH crosscourt rates higher · 0.28 pts
- Serve +1: mid-depth return to your backhand side hit BH through the middle ×4; BH down the line rates higher · 0.28 pts
- Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your middle hit BH through the middle ×5; BH crosscourt rates higher · 0.24 pts
Victoria Azarenka
3.4 points left on the table across 108 shots 3.11 per 100 shots
- Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your middle hit BH through the middle ×6; BH crosscourt rates higher · 0.28 pts
- Rally, shots 5–8: volley to your middle, opponent at net hit BH lob through the middle ×1; BH lob crosscourt rates higher · 0.25 pts
- Rally, shots 5–8: drop shot to your forehand side hit FH through the middle ×1; FH crosscourt rates higher · 0.24 pts
- Return +1: drive to your forehand side hit FH through the middle ×3; FH crosscourt rates higher · 0.19 pts